债券和股票的定价
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• In dollar terms (fixed-rate borrowing) • As a formula (adjustable-rate borrowing)
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
$31.875 $31.875
$31.875
$1,031.875
12 / 31 / 09
1 / 1 / 02 6 / 30 / 02
12 / 31 / 02
6 / 30 / 09
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
5-1
Valuation of Bonds and Stock
• First Principles:
– Value of financial securities = PV of expected future cash flows
5-3
5.1 Definition and Example of a Bond
• Consider a U.S. government bond listed as 6 3/8 of December 2009.
– The Par Value of the bond is $1,000. – Coupon payments are made semi-annually (June 30 and December 31 for this particular bond). – Since the coupon rate is 6 3/8 the payment is $31.875. – On January 1, 2002 the size and timing of cash flows are:
• The rate should be appropriate to the risk presented by the security.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
5-5
Pure Discount Bonds
Information needed for valuing pure discount bonds:
• To value bonds and stocks we need to:
– Estimate future cash flows:
• Size (how much) and • Timing (when)
– Discount future cash flows at an appropriate rate:
5-4
5.2 How to Value Bonds
• Identify the size and timing of cash flows. • Discount at the correct discount rate.
– If you know the price of a bond and the size and timing of cash flows, the yield to maturity is the discount rate.
F PV T (1 r )
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
5-6
Pure Discount Bonds: Example
Find the value of a 30-year zero-coupon bond with a $1,000 par value and a YTM of 6%.
5-0
Chapter Outline
5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Definition and Example of a Bond How to Value Bonds Bond Concepts The Present Value of Common Stocks Estimates of Parameters in the DividendDiscount Model 5.6 Growth Opportunities 5.7 The Dividend Growth Model and the NPVGO Model (Advanced) 5.8 Price Earnings Ratio 5.9 Stock Market Reporting 5.10 Summary and Conclusions
– Time to maturity (T) = Maturity date - today’s date – Face value (F) – Discount rate (r)
$0
0
$0
$0
$F
T
1
2
T 1
Present value of a pure discount bond at time 0:
5-2
5.1 Definition and Example of a Bondபைடு நூலகம்
• A bond is a legally binding agreement between a borrower and a lender: – Specifies the principal amount of the loan. – Specifies the size and timing of the cash flows:
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
$31.875 $31.875
$31.875
$1,031.875
12 / 31 / 09
1 / 1 / 02 6 / 30 / 02
12 / 31 / 02
6 / 30 / 09
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
5-1
Valuation of Bonds and Stock
• First Principles:
– Value of financial securities = PV of expected future cash flows
5-3
5.1 Definition and Example of a Bond
• Consider a U.S. government bond listed as 6 3/8 of December 2009.
– The Par Value of the bond is $1,000. – Coupon payments are made semi-annually (June 30 and December 31 for this particular bond). – Since the coupon rate is 6 3/8 the payment is $31.875. – On January 1, 2002 the size and timing of cash flows are:
• The rate should be appropriate to the risk presented by the security.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
5-5
Pure Discount Bonds
Information needed for valuing pure discount bonds:
• To value bonds and stocks we need to:
– Estimate future cash flows:
• Size (how much) and • Timing (when)
– Discount future cash flows at an appropriate rate:
5-4
5.2 How to Value Bonds
• Identify the size and timing of cash flows. • Discount at the correct discount rate.
– If you know the price of a bond and the size and timing of cash flows, the yield to maturity is the discount rate.
F PV T (1 r )
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
5-6
Pure Discount Bonds: Example
Find the value of a 30-year zero-coupon bond with a $1,000 par value and a YTM of 6%.
5-0
Chapter Outline
5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Definition and Example of a Bond How to Value Bonds Bond Concepts The Present Value of Common Stocks Estimates of Parameters in the DividendDiscount Model 5.6 Growth Opportunities 5.7 The Dividend Growth Model and the NPVGO Model (Advanced) 5.8 Price Earnings Ratio 5.9 Stock Market Reporting 5.10 Summary and Conclusions
– Time to maturity (T) = Maturity date - today’s date – Face value (F) – Discount rate (r)
$0
0
$0
$0
$F
T
1
2
T 1
Present value of a pure discount bond at time 0:
5-2
5.1 Definition and Example of a Bondபைடு நூலகம்
• A bond is a legally binding agreement between a borrower and a lender: – Specifies the principal amount of the loan. – Specifies the size and timing of the cash flows: