陈贝尔 2015年CBOT期货市场分析与价格展望
合集下载
相关主题
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
CME Grain Markets Outlook
--- To ZCE & CNGOC Conference
Bell Chen Wuhan, China May 07, 2015
The information contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodity. Those individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any reproduction or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of the author is strictly prohibited. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this information. The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
来自百度文库
1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
900 800 700
3
March 1 Soybean Stocks
3月1日大豆库存
1,375
1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10
1,334
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40
1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0
6
Total Commitments (thousand tonnes)
86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
March 1 Stocks
March Stocks/Usage Ratio
March 1 Stocks/Sept-Feb Usage Ratio
Mid-April thru August Average Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales
4月中旬至8月大豆平均每周出口量 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0
Total Commitments Commitments % of Annual Exports
*14/15 assumes USDA's export proj. of 12.8 mil tons (11.6 MMT)
5
U.S. Soybean Meal New Crop Export Commitments -as of Mid April-
-million bushels-
Total Commitments (MMT)
U.S. Soybean Meal Export Commitments vs Annual Exports
-as of Mid April-
Commits % of Annual Exports
10.5 10.0
9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
?? 1.0 0.0
Average Weekly Sales 2014/15 Avg Weekly Sales Needed to Reach USDA
4
80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
2
March 1 Stocks (million bushels) 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
--- To ZCE & CNGOC Conference
Bell Chen Wuhan, China May 07, 2015
The information contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodity. Those individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Any reproduction or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of the author is strictly prohibited. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this information. The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
来自百度文库
1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
900 800 700
3
March 1 Soybean Stocks
3月1日大豆库存
1,375
1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10
1,334
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40
1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0
6
Total Commitments (thousand tonnes)
86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
March 1 Stocks
March Stocks/Usage Ratio
March 1 Stocks/Sept-Feb Usage Ratio
Mid-April thru August Average Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales
4月中旬至8月大豆平均每周出口量 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0
Total Commitments Commitments % of Annual Exports
*14/15 assumes USDA's export proj. of 12.8 mil tons (11.6 MMT)
5
U.S. Soybean Meal New Crop Export Commitments -as of Mid April-
-million bushels-
Total Commitments (MMT)
U.S. Soybean Meal Export Commitments vs Annual Exports
-as of Mid April-
Commits % of Annual Exports
10.5 10.0
9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
?? 1.0 0.0
Average Weekly Sales 2014/15 Avg Weekly Sales Needed to Reach USDA
4
80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
2
March 1 Stocks (million bushels) 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15