赫伯特.西蒙：决策理论
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Decision-Making
The Essence of the Manager’s Job
1
I The Decision-Making Process
Decision
Making a choice from two or more alternatives.
The Decision-Making Process
Programmed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.
2
3
4
Step 1: Identifying the Problem
Problem
A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.
Characteristics of Problems
A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem.
20
Assumptions of Rationality
21
Bounded Rationality
Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.
16
Step 7: Implementing the Alternative
Putting the chosen alternative into action.
Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.
231 231 232 231 229 204 249 206
15
Step 6: Selecting an Alternative
Choosing the best alternative
The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.
10 8 6 4 3
8
Criteria and Weights for Franchise Decision
n
n n n n n
Criterion
Start-up costs
Weight
10
Franchisor support
Financial qualification
8
6
Open geographical locations
The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the probing Decision Criteria
Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem.
Franchisor history
4
3
9
Step 4: Developing Alternatives
Identifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives Will satisfice—choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem—rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.
The Role of Intuition
Intuitive decision making
Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.
23
What is Intuition?
Influence on decision making
Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.
22
Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria. Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem. Implementing the selected alternative. Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.
17
Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness The soundness of the decision is judged
by its outcomes.
How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?
Start-up Franchise cost
Curves Sandwiches Jani-king Tax Service GNC Radio Shack Chem-Dry McDonald's 100 80 80 80 70 80 100 40
Franchisor support
24 56 40 56 64 24 56 80
18
II. Decisions in the Management Functions
19
1. Making Decisions
Rationality
Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices within specified constraints.
Franchise Curves Sandwiches Jani-king Tax Service GNC Radio Shack Chem-Dry McDonald's
Start-up cost 10 8 8 8 7 8 10 4
Franchisor support 3 7 5 7 8 3 7 10
Financial Open Franchisor qualification locations history
60 42 42 42 42 36 48 24 32 32 40 32 32 40 24 32 15 21 30 21 21 24 21 30
Total
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical. Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives. Have a clear and specific goal Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests.
（1） Structured Problems
Involve goals that clear.
Are familiar (have occurred before).
Are easily and completely defined— information about the problem is available and complete.
Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)
Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
11
Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria
12
Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria
13
Assessed Values of Franchise Opportunities Using Decision Criteria
10
Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives
Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses
An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
6
Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria
Decision criteria are not of equal importance:
Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.
24
2. Types of Problems and Decisions
Structured Problems and Programmed Decisions
Unstructured Problems and Non-programmed Decisions
25
2. Types of Problems and Decisions
Financial Open Franchisor qualification locations history 10 8 5 7 8 7 7 10 10 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 10 8 8 6 7 4 8 10
14
Evaluation of Franchise Alternatives against Weighted Criteria
7
Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision
n n n n n n
Criterion
Memory and Storage Battery life Carrying Weight Warranty Display Quality
Weight
The Essence of the Manager’s Job
1
I The Decision-Making Process
Decision
Making a choice from two or more alternatives.
The Decision-Making Process
Programmed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.
2
3
4
Step 1: Identifying the Problem
Problem
A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.
Characteristics of Problems
A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem.
20
Assumptions of Rationality
21
Bounded Rationality
Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.
16
Step 7: Implementing the Alternative
Putting the chosen alternative into action.
Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.
231 231 232 231 229 204 249 206
15
Step 6: Selecting an Alternative
Choosing the best alternative
The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.
10 8 6 4 3
8
Criteria and Weights for Franchise Decision
n
n n n n n
Criterion
Start-up costs
Weight
10
Franchisor support
Financial qualification
8
6
Open geographical locations
The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the probing Decision Criteria
Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem.
Franchisor history
4
3
9
Step 4: Developing Alternatives
Identifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives Will satisfice—choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem—rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.
The Role of Intuition
Intuitive decision making
Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.
23
What is Intuition?
Influence on decision making
Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.
22
Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria. Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem. Implementing the selected alternative. Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.
17
Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness The soundness of the decision is judged
by its outcomes.
How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?
Start-up Franchise cost
Curves Sandwiches Jani-king Tax Service GNC Radio Shack Chem-Dry McDonald's 100 80 80 80 70 80 100 40
Franchisor support
24 56 40 56 64 24 56 80
18
II. Decisions in the Management Functions
19
1. Making Decisions
Rationality
Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices within specified constraints.
Franchise Curves Sandwiches Jani-king Tax Service GNC Radio Shack Chem-Dry McDonald's
Start-up cost 10 8 8 8 7 8 10 4
Franchisor support 3 7 5 7 8 3 7 10
Financial Open Franchisor qualification locations history
60 42 42 42 42 36 48 24 32 32 40 32 32 40 24 32 15 21 30 21 21 24 21 30
Total
Assumptions are that decision makers:
Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical. Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives. Have a clear and specific goal Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests.
（1） Structured Problems
Involve goals that clear.
Are familiar (have occurred before).
Are easily and completely defined— information about the problem is available and complete.
Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)
Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
11
Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria
12
Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria
13
Assessed Values of Franchise Opportunities Using Decision Criteria
10
Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives
Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses
An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
6
Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria
Decision criteria are not of equal importance:
Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.
24
2. Types of Problems and Decisions
Structured Problems and Programmed Decisions
Unstructured Problems and Non-programmed Decisions
25
2. Types of Problems and Decisions
Financial Open Franchisor qualification locations history 10 8 5 7 8 7 7 10 10 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 10 8 8 6 7 4 8 10
14
Evaluation of Franchise Alternatives against Weighted Criteria
7
Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision
n n n n n n
Criterion
Memory and Storage Battery life Carrying Weight Warranty Display Quality
Weight