入境旅游发展论文：入境旅游发展经济增长动态面板数据门限回归模型工具变量门限效应

入境旅游发展论文：入境旅游发展经济增长动态面板数据门限回归模型工具变量门限效应

【中文摘要】第二次世界大战结束以来,随着世界经济增长尤其是一些发达国家的经济增长,世界旅游业也快速发展起来。中国的旅游业经过三十多年的高速发展,已跻身世界旅游大国的行列,入境旅游市场一直保持着稳定的增长势头。国内外学者的研究成果表明,入境旅游发展对经济增长的作用存在着两种观点:一是积极作用,二是消极作用。因此,入境旅游业发展与经济增长的关系始终是一个备受争议的话题,对于二者的关系至今仍无定论。本文在以往研究的基础上根据动态面板门限回归理论,旨在研究我国入境旅游业发展与经济增长的非线性关系,明确入境旅游发展对经济增长的动态影响作用。本文首先介绍了动态面板数据门限回归模型的混合最小二乘估计、工具变量估计等估计方法以及门限效应的自举检验步骤。然后,基于我国30个省(市、自治区)1987-2009年的面板数据,建立恰当的经济增长模型,模型中分别选取入境旅游人数增长率等四个门限变量,并引入八个控制变量。最后,在所建模型基础上,利用四个不同的门限变量对入境旅游发展与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证分析,在分析的过程中通过工具变量法处理模型中存在的内生性问题,以增强估计结果的一致性与有效性。实证分析显示:(1)以入境旅游人数增长率为门限变量时,入境旅游发展与经济增长之间不存在门限效应。(2)以入境旅游收入增长率、入境旅游收入占GDP比重、入境旅游收入占

出口额比重为门限变量时,我国入境旅游发展与经济增长之间均存在显著的门限效应。(3)当入境旅游收入增长率介于40.833%-43.836%、入境旅游收入占GDP比重介于0.977%-1.231%、入境旅游收入占出口额比重介于12.268%-15.054%时,入境旅游发展对经济增长的促进作用最为明显。(4)当入境旅游收入增长率大于43.836%时,入境旅游发展能够促进经济增长,但是促进作用并不明显;当入境旅游收入占GDP 比重高于1.231%、入境旅游收入占出口额比重大于15.054%时,入境旅游发展对经济增长的促进作用不显著。综合实证分析结果,入境旅游业发展对经济增长具有促进作用,但是入境旅游业在我国还未得到长足发展。针对在分析中所显现出来的入境旅游业发展上的问题,本文尝试性提出了一些建议,为相关部门制定入境旅游业发展方面的决策提供参考,以更好的发挥入境旅游业发展对经济增长的促进作用。

【英文摘要】After the Second World War, as the economic growth in some developed countries recovery, the world tourism developed rapidly. After thirty years of rapid development , the tourism of China have a tour of the world’s major and the international tourism have been keeping a stable growth. According to the studies of foreign and domestic scholars, there are two views about the international tourism affecting economic growth, which is positive or negative. So the relationship between the international tourism and economic growth has always been a controversial topic, the research on

it has still no certainty. In this paper, we use the dynamic panel threshold regression theory to research the nonlinear relationship between the international tourism and economic growth, in order to know how the international tourism have an effect on the economic growth.Firstly, this paper describes the POLS and the instrumental variable estimation of the dynamic panel threshold model, and the steps of the bootstrap in the test of the threshold effect. Then based on the panel data of thirty provinces of China between 1987 and 2009, according to some theory of economic growth and the theory of the dynamic panel threshold regression, we establish appropriate model in this paper. We choose four the threshold variables and eight controlled variable in this model. Finally, we use these four threshold variables to have an empirical research on the nonlinear relationship between the international tourism and economic growth, during our research we use instrumental variable estimation to correct for endogeneity, to enhance the results’effectiveness and consistency.The main results of this study include: (1) When we choose the growth of the tourist arrival as the threshold variable, the relationship between the international tourism and economic growth doesn’t have the threshold effect. (2) When we choose the growth of the tourism