2019全球能源观察：参考案例
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Wehopeyouhaveaninterestingreadthathelpsyou
shapeyourthinkingontheenergytransitionandthe implicationsforyourorganization.
furtheraccelerationoftheramp-upofrenewables
thisenergytransition.Asacompassandtooltosupport abasisforourinsights.
ThecurrentReferenceCaseoutlookisstructured
theseefforts,wehavecreatedafundamentaland granularoutlookonglobalenergysystems.
GlobalEnergyPerspective2019:
ReferenceCase
January2019
Summary
Introduction
Global energy demand
Electricity demand/supply
Editor’snote
Gas demand
Oil demand
Carbon emissions
ofMcKinseyexpertsfromaroundtheworld,fromfields reachinthenextfewyears:
includingoilandgas,automotive,renewableenergy,and A Asthecostofrenewableshascomedownfurther,
basicmaterials.Throughthisglobalnetwork,weareable manycountrieswillreachatippingpointinthe
toincorporateadiversesetofviewsintooneconsensus:
comingfiveyears,wherenew-buildsolarorwind
Wehavemadeitourmissiontohelpourclientsnavigate
Manyofthetrendsthatshapethefutureofenergyarein realitydrivenbyamultitudeoflocaltrends,whichwill occurwithdifferentmagnitudesandspeedsinspecific geographiesandsectors.Tocapturethisgranularity,our modeloffersadetailedoutlookacross146countries,55 energytypes,and30sectors,andthenaggregatesthese developmentstoestablishabottom-upglobaloutlookas
2
Energysystemsaroundtheworldaregoingthrough rapidtransitionsthatwillbringimportantchangesto thewaywefuelourcars,heatourhomes,andpower ourindustries.Thesetrendswillhavewidespread implicationsforbusinesses,governments,and individualsinthecomingdecades.
ComparingourReferenceCaseoutlooktoeditionsfrom previousyears,wefindthatseveraldevelopmentsin theenergytransitionhaveshownfurtheracceleration. Thesetechnologicaladvancementsbeyondtheexpected havebeenacommonthemeforforecastersinthepast. Foraperspectiveonpotentialfurtheraccelerations,we refertoourrecent“AcceleratedTransition”outlook.
Reflectingonourworkonthisoutlookandnumerous discussionswithexperts,wefindthatthreeimportant
Ouroutlookisbasedoncontributionsfromhundreds tippingpointsintheenergylandscapewillcomewithin
ourReferenceCaseinfrontofyou.
capacityiscost-competitivewiththefuelcostof
existingconventionalplants.Asaresult,weseea
Hale Waihona Puke Baidu
aroundfivechapters.Chapter1providesaperspective onoverallenergydemand,followedbychapters2-4that diveintoelectricity,naturalgas,andoil,respectively. Chapter5looksintogreenhousegasemissions, includingprojectionsofcoaldemandasanimportant driver.
B Similarly,asthecostofbatteriescontinuestodecline,
withinthenext5-10years,manycountrieswillreach thepointatwhichelectricvehiclesaremoreeconomic thaninternalcombustionenginevehicles.Thisistrue forpassengercarsbutalsoformosttrucksegments
shapeyourthinkingontheenergytransitionandthe implicationsforyourorganization.
furtheraccelerationoftheramp-upofrenewables
thisenergytransition.Asacompassandtooltosupport abasisforourinsights.
ThecurrentReferenceCaseoutlookisstructured
theseefforts,wehavecreatedafundamentaland granularoutlookonglobalenergysystems.
GlobalEnergyPerspective2019:
ReferenceCase
January2019
Summary
Introduction
Global energy demand
Electricity demand/supply
Editor’snote
Gas demand
Oil demand
Carbon emissions
ofMcKinseyexpertsfromaroundtheworld,fromfields reachinthenextfewyears:
includingoilandgas,automotive,renewableenergy,and A Asthecostofrenewableshascomedownfurther,
basicmaterials.Throughthisglobalnetwork,weareable manycountrieswillreachatippingpointinthe
toincorporateadiversesetofviewsintooneconsensus:
comingfiveyears,wherenew-buildsolarorwind
Wehavemadeitourmissiontohelpourclientsnavigate
Manyofthetrendsthatshapethefutureofenergyarein realitydrivenbyamultitudeoflocaltrends,whichwill occurwithdifferentmagnitudesandspeedsinspecific geographiesandsectors.Tocapturethisgranularity,our modeloffersadetailedoutlookacross146countries,55 energytypes,and30sectors,andthenaggregatesthese developmentstoestablishabottom-upglobaloutlookas
2
Energysystemsaroundtheworldaregoingthrough rapidtransitionsthatwillbringimportantchangesto thewaywefuelourcars,heatourhomes,andpower ourindustries.Thesetrendswillhavewidespread implicationsforbusinesses,governments,and individualsinthecomingdecades.
ComparingourReferenceCaseoutlooktoeditionsfrom previousyears,wefindthatseveraldevelopmentsin theenergytransitionhaveshownfurtheracceleration. Thesetechnologicaladvancementsbeyondtheexpected havebeenacommonthemeforforecastersinthepast. Foraperspectiveonpotentialfurtheraccelerations,we refertoourrecent“AcceleratedTransition”outlook.
Reflectingonourworkonthisoutlookandnumerous discussionswithexperts,wefindthatthreeimportant
Ouroutlookisbasedoncontributionsfromhundreds tippingpointsintheenergylandscapewillcomewithin
ourReferenceCaseinfrontofyou.
capacityiscost-competitivewiththefuelcostof
existingconventionalplants.Asaresult,weseea
Hale Waihona Puke Baidu
aroundfivechapters.Chapter1providesaperspective onoverallenergydemand,followedbychapters2-4that diveintoelectricity,naturalgas,andoil,respectively. Chapter5looksintogreenhousegasemissions, includingprojectionsofcoaldemandasanimportant driver.
B Similarly,asthecostofbatteriescontinuestodecline,
withinthenext5-10years,manycountrieswillreach thepointatwhichelectricvehiclesaremoreeconomic thaninternalcombustionenginevehicles.Thisistrue forpassengercarsbutalsoformosttrucksegments