￥鱼跃医疗研究报告：长江证券-鱼跃医疗(002223)：国内康复护理和医用供氧医疗器械行业龙头

٤ഓ࠼࿯‫ד‬๥ ......................................................................................................................4
21cc
٤ೌഓదಾۤ‫ࡊڳ‬ઝॆࢢమ؏႙‫ܙ‬Щसᅖۤྑྤࣿဈᆑ٢ဟཾ໭ྤС९ଶ୶ۤ໠‫ڳ‬໻‫ྜޝ‬ೇণЦ෈ࢗ෩..................................................................
෍ ġ٤ഓ‫ٲࠒ·ڂ‬ெࣣ
๑‫ڛ‬ੜ ๑௵
95.71% 4.29%
ဨၡࢳ‫ޏ‬
ಷֺ॓ ೯ਥქ ണࡒ‫ ڛ‬ಀ‫ݖ‬٤ᄹ‫ڂ‬
13.16% 44.85% 11.39% 2.91%
2.24%
0.19%
25.24%
ဨၡྤ९
ᆇॸࣿၗġ٤ഓბ‫ڂ‬ഊੜೠēЩߞᄃ௪ཙࡎϦ
٤ഓᅖ࿯ࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सຂॹۤྤဈ٢ཾຂॹྤ९୶໠СଶԅಓСۤ໇೒ē٤ંഓ஍ཙ٫ࡎಓ Сධ3ჰ6ّ୶ଶcᄵঢ়cྵ2к25ԉّē‫ڟ‬౨ٌ೭ēСᅖଶӽ2С00ଶ5Ĕͧ2ࣳ00ပ7ભᄥԅཾ‫ޙݯۦ‬cб໇ா೒ฑೌཾద୷‫֤ד‬ιcႽ๜٤‫ܤ‬ഓ୶Ӳc୙༳࿯གྜ‫ೌޙ‬c ฃద၍ԅd69.04%c64.80%ۤ68.14%d٤ഓ2007ભ࿯ྜೌదน2.89࿁၍ēࡊॆమน3849.66
٤ഓཙࡎ
2008-04-08
མକ ď Đ 8627 65799517
yanpeng@cjsc.com.cn
ྜྷഡඁ ď Đ 8627 65799535
yest@cjsc.com.cn
֟໻ᆇॸ
֟໻‫ךڂ‬फι‫ރ‬೴२ ֟໻ఐ୙ ᅖѕ໇౥ ౨ೇఐ୙
٤ഓ‫·ݮ‬೴࡬
ᆙ‫(·ڂ‬ฃ‫)ڂ‬ ঠඹ A ‫ڂ‬/B ‫(ڂ‬ฃ‫)ڂ‬ ਤ‫ࡊڂ‬ᆇСď၍Đ
ྜ‫ݻ‬၇Љ‫ٹރ‬ᄔ ..........................................................................................................1 ‫פ‬ຢ ..............................................................................................................................1
ᅖ࿯ྜ๠ೌద 212.53
ࡊॆమ
83.31
ď၍ ‫ڂ‬Đ EPS /
0.57
ᆇॸࣿၗġЩߞᄃ௪ཙࡎϦ
2006
231.99 29.97 0.31
2007
289.48 38.5 0.37
2008E
383.80 48.64 0.46
2009E
498.41 63.14 0.59
2010E
641.57 81.64 0.76
෍ ġ ભ࿯ྜೌదࠒ‫ٲ‬έՎ௔ಽ
Ӧสġฃ၍










ᄥཾ‫ ݯ‬༳ག‫ ޙ‬ঢ় ྵ ͬߒۧ ๜‫ ֤୷ཾ ୶ܤ‬ධჰ୶ ୣ൑
ᆇॸࣿၗġ٤ഓბ‫ڂ‬ഊੜೠēЩߞᄃ௪ཙࡎϦ
෍ ġᅖྑСଶႽ࿯ྜೌదΑᄷď ભ೴࡬Đ
٤ഓͼ࠿ ..............................................................................................................................1 ໻ྜͼ࠿ ..............................................................................................................................2
แ‫ྤڳ‬९୶໠ೇЦᄯē‫غ‬ժྤ९୶໠ၟႽ25%ē‫ྤ҄ݮ‬९୶໠ၟႽ75%ē·ි୲
ྜၽ‫ྤ҄ݮ‬९୶໠Сଶ౨ࡉჺညಽੜມēϦ‫ྜ୲ד‬ၽྡྷᄵ‫ݧ‬տᄵСଶ౨ྸ٤࠼ഓࠀཙ࡮ࡎ‫ڳ‬ ‫ޝ‬໠ࡉफჺ౥ଶॏԅdࠩူѻҮࣇອᆙճ࿫ᄔนԅē105แ.5‫ڳ‬2࿁ྤਥ९၍୶ē໠ල໻Αྜ႙ѻЩࣇ1ѻ7.5ຣ7%ॴē‫غ‬ୣമᄯ႙ѻЩࣇē6280.0761ભ࿁ྤਥ९၍୶ē ලΑ႙Щ28.58%Ģࠩࣇ36.81࿁ਥ၍ēලΑ႙Щࠧ1.37%d
c ࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सྤ९୶໠ġೇЦ࡭Ӗē஍࠿‫ڛ‬ੜ 1
..................................................3
c ྤဈ٢ཾྤ९୶໠ġ‫ޥ‬ဈೇЦ༓ௐჾ΄ࢗ֟ 2
...............................................3
ᅖྑϭ๠ᄗγ
ᅖ࿯ྜ๠ೌద ႙Щ৑ ࡊॆమ(Č)
EPS
2006
231.99
2007 2008E 2009E 2010E
289.48 383.80 498.41 641.57
7.69% 25.48% 32.58% 29.86% 28.72%
29.97
38.5 48.64 63.14 81.64
0.31
0.37
3c ٤ഓಾ‫ڳ‬ઝࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सۤྤဈ٢ཾຂॹྤ९୶໠໻ྜণ෈ē஍ঢӖСଶ ᄯᄥཾ‫ݯ‬cбாฑཾ୷֤c๜‫୶ܤ‬c༳ག‫ޙ‬cධჰ୶๔ّСଶԅೇЦ Ⴝပ৑ӒӾ‫ڳ‬ઝԛྡྷcঢ়ྵкԅೇЦႽပ৑‫ڳ‬ઝԛ֝Ģ
4c ೌదۤࡊॆమ႙Щᅖྑࣿᆑဟ໭Сଶۤ‫ޝڳ‬ೇЦࢗ෩dбாฑཾ୷֤ ‫ރ‬ᄥཾ‫ݯ‬ԉСଶ࠭ભࣿ໇೒ೌదӖ‫׶‬႙ЩĢ
ͼ࠿ۤಇէ‫ד‬๥
٤ഓͼ࠿
ोd٤ဨഓၡဎပߞຫപဟဨ19ၡ98ྤભ९ဎಁ๑΁‫ڛ‬ပੜຫۤ٤๑ഓॕď‫֟߅׾‬ы୯юqဨोēၡ‫܊‬ပຫ࿤rద໭Đ‫ڂ‬ဟՊ20ဨ07ၡભࢳჼ඘‫ޏ‬ďέ๑ٗಁ‫ڛ‬ ੜนಬ‫ࣅޝ‬ᄥఆĐcಷֺ॓c೯ਥქԉēලನ๑ॕ‫׾‬ොѻd٤ഓಬ‫ࣅޝ‬ᄥఆน๑‫ڛ‬ ੜē·ұ٤ࢗ֟໻‫܊‬๑‫ڛ‬ੜћ‫ڂ‬Αै‫ޙۦ‬น69.4%ďఢ෍1ᄯ༔ຬࣟൎವĐd
ζ ġ٤ഓ੿‫ނ‬ᆇࠡ෇຿ົં 3
…………………………………………………………….5
ζ ġ٤ഓ੿‫ނ‬ᆇࠡ໭႙Сટ 4
…………………………………………………………….5
ζ ġ٤ഓ੿‫ނ‬ᆇࠡ໭႙Сટ 5
………………………………………………………….…5
ζ ġ٤ഓ࿴ॆ၇Љζ 6
………………………………………………………………….…8
ͱ‫ྑف‬Ԥ
1c ٤ഓᅖ࿯ࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सຂॹۤྤဈ٢ཾຂॹྤ९୶໠СଶԅಓСۤ໇೒ē ં஍٫ಓС 36 ّଶᄵc225 ّ‫ٌڟ‬ēᅖӽСଶͧࣳပᄥཾ‫ݯ‬cбா ฑཾ୷֤c๜‫୶ܤ‬c༳ག‫ޙ‬cධჰ୶cঢ়ྵкԉē2007 ભ࿯ྜೌద น 2.89 ࿁၍ēࡊॆమน 3849.66 ฃ၍d
2c ࢢྤ؏९ೇ‫ܙ‬Цस‫ࣶྤڜ‬९Ģ୶ď໠2࡮Đပ‫ޥ‬॥බۚ‫ܙ‬ԅसೇ୶Ц໠஍ᅏ࠿Ϥēࠩ࿙దน‫ޥ‬ďබ1ĢĐďь3ೇĐಀఆ௕ࣇcच૊঍ӈ‫ܤ‬ ௔ಽަമ‫ޥ‬බ‫ܙ‬सࠩёĢখෳēྤဈ٢ཾྤ९୶໠‫ޥ‬ဈೇЦ༓ௐჾ΄ ࢗ֟Ģ
5c ੿‫ނ‬ᆇࠡົંࣴӖಓС‫ڟ‬੦ē‫ॴࠓܯ‬СટຫᄥĢ 6c ٤ഓԅ‫פ‬ຢᅖྑၽဟġ‫ڳ‬ෳೇЦϏՎ‫פ‬ຢĢ੿‫ނ‬ᆇࠡົંϢટഈॆӒ
Сԅ‫פ‬ຢd 7c แਬ၇‫ޙ‬ဨၡྤ९ 2008-2010 ભ EPS ‫ד‬ιน 0.46 ၍c0.59 ၍ۤ 0.76
၍d٤ഓၽᄯ໌͐౨ೇē̟ზં஍ᄯ໌͐ೇ࿴৑ຣᅱēٓိ٤ഓ 2008 ભ 40 Ϳೇ࿴৑ē٤ഓԅ‫ۦ‬सޮสၽ 18.4 ၍d
ࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सྤ९୶໠࡮ပ॥ۚԅೇЦ஍࠿ēᅖྑၐ࿙ಾġ ď1Đьೇಀ௕c૊ӈྤ९ೇЦ‫ࣶڜ‬dแ‫ڳ‬ჾၽ෗ࠩ‫ྤ҄ݮ‬९‫׻‬๠ԅ௦ੋ‫آ؍‬ē ඹ‫ڶ‬໭૊‫ۦ‬cಀ௕ྤ९ԉ໹಴ē୔‫ྤ҄ݮރ‬९‫׻‬๠dၽ‫ݮ‬Њฯಓ‫ٲݯ‬ᄯē༳ག‫ޙ‬c ධჰ୶ԉಾΡ΁୶໠ē࿙Ү‫ݮ‬Њฯಓ‫ٲݯ‬ಁ΁ଅᄢԅඔಖc૊ӈۤಀ௕ྤ९ฯಓ‫ݯ‬ ‫ٲ‬ԅߙಁēߜҼࠩ‫ྤ҄ݮ‬९୶໠ೇЦԅࣙമ႙Щd௦‫ྤڳ‬९‫ٲݯ‬ԅ଼࢈ྤ९୶໠ᅭ ΁ഃ଼ࠀԎēٗ໭ܰӝ༓ௐ२ࠀӖēωயٗ໭ܰӝԅ‫ڶ‬ёߜಾྡྷّ༓ௐೄׂԅ‫ڶ‬ёē ߜ‫ͬݖ‬ᄃรࣿࠀЩྡྷխನ޷ྤ९୶໠ೇЦԅࣙമ႙ЩĢ ď2Đ‫ޥ‬බ‫ܙ‬स୶໠ᅏϤࠩద‫ޥ‬බd‫ޥ‬බͬߒఐ࿍೓Ӿᄷೊē഻ᆂಀ௕ฯಓ‫׻‬๠ ฉ৮ԅߙಁēचભఆcϷ‫ޅ‬ఆc਄໿ψܱრࢶྻಬຣၽ‫ޥ‬ᄭ९ۤ‫ܙ‬सēࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सफ ԅྤ९୶໠ࠩద‫ޥ‬බԅෳϦ‫ࡂܬ‬ᅏϤюೣēೇЦ༓ௐߜ‫ׂࡶބ‬ӖĢ ď3Đఆࣇच঍‫ܤ‬௔ಽަമ‫ޥ‬බ‫ܙ‬सࠩёdᄯ‫࠼ྸڳ‬ಾಷ࠘౨चભఆࣇᆫտԅ‫ڳ‬ ‫ޥ‬ēचભఆྤ९ͬߒ༓ௐ‫ࡶބ‬႙ަēຣပྤၝ‫ܙ‬सટॏઔྻਁᆠचભఆ਄໿‫ޅ‬ψۤ Ϸ‫ྤޅ‬९‫ܙ‬स༓ௐēަമॴ຿‫ޥ‬බ‫ܙ‬सԅᅧྭd 2c ྤဈ٢ཾྤ९୶໠ġ‫ޥ‬ဈೇЦ༓ௐჾ΄ࢗ֟ ྤဈ٢ཾྤ९୶໠ᆫ୔βԅರဈಾၽྤၝဈဟψఆ‫ࡗބ‬ē࿙ҮୣҎහࢺ‫ܜ‬ᅖྑ นྤၝc९ཱྀၝԉ‫ٲݯ‬फࢺ‫ܜ‬ēં஍ᆴน‫ޥ‬බߒࢢ‫ܙ‬सԅШ΁୶໠ēᄥཾ‫ݯ‬ԉСଶ ԅ‫ޥ‬ဈೇЦ༓ௐჾၽ΄Ϣծࢗ֟dখෳēཾ୷֤ԉСଶ΄ဈဟ‫ࣂ۔‬cஎഃԉ‫ࡂܬ‬ຏ ԅ٢ཾಁ΁౨ēဈාٗަ‫ࣶڜ‬d
෍ ġಷ࠘ྤ९୶໠ೇЦ‫ٲ‬юď ભĐ
ୣ൑ ᄯ‫ ڳ‬
ఐ·
૘ਰ
ਥ‫ ڳ‬
ᆇॸࣿၗġ٤ഓბ‫ڂ‬ഊੜೠēЩߞᄃ௪ཙࡎϦ
߅ྑ٤‫ד‬๥ഓġᅖྑСଶࢶྻӖᄡ‫ד‬นࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सۤྤဈ٢ཾ०ّफιēแਬճ०ّক့ᆳ 1c ࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सྤ९୶໠ġೇЦ࡭Ӗē஍࠿‫ڛ‬ੜ
‫פ‬ຢ ଶᅖྑ1c໇‫ڳ‬ชෳ‫ڳ‬ೇෳЦēϏయՎပ‫פ‬໭ຢЬd‫ޥ‬Ӳࠩ஍ద٤უഓྡྷ႙কЩ့ࠀēࣙ႕ԅ‫ڳ‬СෳଶೇఢЦᄥߜཾС‫ݯ‬ಓcࠀбӖாϏฑՎཾĢ୷֤ԉС ‫ނ‬ᆇࠡ2cົ੿ં‫ނ‬ӖᆇտࠡนົࣴંӖϢၐટပഈСॆଶӒССટԅē‫פ‬యຢ੿d‫ނ‬٤ᆇഓࠡຣົပંಓϢСટຬഈ‫ߙ·ॆݮ‬౨юਁ෇ؕС۠ēಓ႕ССē੿ଶ ໇೒ࢶટ೓Ӿ࿵ູd
0.46
0.59
0.76
٤ഓཙࡎ
ჾำંৃ
෇ᆇᅖඕ ..............................................................................................................................1
ೇЦᄗ೴
౨ᄃᄗ೴ ಇюᄗ೴
ဨၡྤ९
SZ002223
֟໻ޮġ9.48 ၍
ಓ๞ྤྐି‫މ‬ġࢡۚ ંγޮġ18.4 ၍
‫ڳ‬ઝࢢ؏‫ܙ‬सۤྤဈ٢ཾྤ९୶໠໻ྜণ෈
ฃ‫ ڂ‬2600
2008-04-07
଼̝ᄃ௪
2007-04-14
2007-12-31 10300.00
3.72
2008-04-07 3446.24 12652.90
ζġ
ζ ġ࿴ॆ၇Љ 1
...................................................................................................................1
ζ ġ٤ഓᅖྑСଶೇЦႽပ৑ď ભĐ 2
2006 ..................................................................4
Байду номын сангаас
...................................................................................................1 …………………………………………….2
෍ ෍
34ġġᅖಷྑ࠘Сྤଶ९Ⴝ୶࿯໠ྜೇೌЦద‫ٲ‬Αюᄷďď2002600ભ7 Đભ೴…࡬…Đ……………………………………...………………………………………..32
٤ഓཙࡎ
෇ᆇᅖඕ
ྜ‫ݻ‬၇Љ‫ٹރ‬ᄔ
แਬ၇‫ޙ‬ဨၡྤ९ 2008-2010 ભ EPS ‫ד‬ιน 0.46 ၍c0.59 ၍ۤ 0.76 ၍d٤ഓၽ
ᄯ໌͐౨ೇē̟ზં஍ᄯ໌͐ೇ࿴৑ຣᅱēٓိ٤ഓ ‫ۦ‬सޮสၽ 18.4 ၍d
2008
ભ
40
Ϳೇ࿴৑ē٤ഓԅ
ζ 1ġ࿴ॆ၇Љ
Ӧสġ̈́ฃ၍
2005







ᄥཾ‫ ݯ‬༳ག‫ ޙ‬ঢ় ྵ ͬߒۧ ๜‫ ֤୷ཾ ୶ܤ‬ධჰ୶ ୣ൑
ᆇॸࣿၗġ٤ഓბ‫ڂ‬ഊੜೠēЩߞᄃ௪ཙࡎϦ
໻ྜͼ࠿
໇೒แೌ‫ڳ‬దྤ42९7࿁୶၍໠d໻2ྜ00֟6ભႺแཁ‫ڳ‬മೇdЦ20‫ڟ‬00੦-2ྸ00Ӓ6ભ60ਤ0࿁ભ၍଼ē࢈ಾԞ1႙97280ભ%ԅྻ7౨2Ϳēc200169ભ98ભಬԅຣ 3.8ͿēೇЦ‫ڟ‬੦สࡢ௦௏ԛങd
٤ഓ࿴ॆ၇Љ ......................................................................................................................5
٤ഓཙࡎ
෍ζંৃ
෍ġ
෍ ġ٤ഓ‫ٲࠒ·ڂ‬ெࣣ 1 ෍ ġ ભ࿯ྜೌదࠒ‫ٲ‬έՎ௔ಽ 2 2005-2007
4 4
c ໇೒ฉ৮҉ဟࣙമࣴ჆୙ 3
..............................................................................4
c ੿‫ނ‬ᆇࠡົંࣴӖಓС‫ڟ‬੦ 4
..........................................................................5