段永平：点评芒格主义

段永平：点评芒格主义

(1)”Most people are too fretful, they worry too much.Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.” 看完这条可不要too aggressive哈。芒格本人曾经就因为用margin给自己带来过大麻烦。我这个朋友也喜欢用margin，非常危险。

1，大部分人都太浮躁、担心得太多。成功需要非常平静耐心，但是机会来临的时候也要足够进取。

(2)”Using [a stock’s] volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2) the risk of inadequate return. Some great businesses have very volatile returns – for example, See’s [a candy company owned

想想周围有多少人还在用“股票的波动性”来衡量风险吧。

2，根据股票的波动性来判断风险是很傻的。我们认为只有两种风险：一，血本无归；二，回报不足。有些很好的生意也是波动性很大的，比如See's糖果通常一年有两个季度都是亏钱的。反倒是有些烂透了的公司生意业绩很稳定。

(3)”I think that, every time you saw the word EBITDA [earnings], you should substitute the word “bullshit”earnings.”

3，所谓的“息税折摊前利润”就是狗屎。

所以看到在说EBITDA的公司时就要小心了，因为他们在用“狗屎”来说服你。

(4)“Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one.”?”It’s true,” replied Buffett. “If

the value of a company doesn’t just scream out at you, it’s too close.” 就是毛估估的意思？

4，巴菲特有时会提到“折现现金流”，但是我从来没见过他算这个。（巴菲特答曰“没错，如果还要算才能得出的价值那就太不足恃了”）(5)”If you buy something because it’s undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” 这条大概要花很多年才能真明白，大概就是未来现金流折现的意思。我觉得自己现在大概有点明白了。

5，如果你买了一个价值低估的股票，你就要等到价格达到你算出来的内在价值时卖掉，这是很难算的。但是如果你买了一个伟大的公司，你就坐那儿呆着就行了。

(6)”We bought a doomed textile mill [Berkshire Hathaway] and

a California S&L [Wesco] just before a calamity. Both were bought at a discount to liquidation value.”

这个大概就是人们常说的价值陷阱，如果理解未来现金流折现的概念就容易理解芒格说的是啥了。所以未必市值低过净资产甚至现金的股票就值得投资，除非你能看懂你买的是什么。

6，我们买过一个纺织厂（Berkshire Hathaway）和一个加州的存贷行（Wesco），这俩后来都带来了灾难。但是我们买的时候，价格都比清算价值打折还低。

(7)”For society, the Internet is wonderful, but for capitalists, it will be a net negative. It will increase efficiency, but lots of things increase efficiency without increasing profits. It is way more likely to make American businesses less profitable than more profitable. This is perfectly obvious, but very little understood.” 我也这么认

为：internet 实际上是就业杀手，需要很多年才能消化。但是，如果能看懂这个变化则会非常有收获。

7，互联网对于社会是极为美好的，但是对于资本家来说纯属祸害。互联网能提高效率，但是有很多东西都是提高效率却降低利润的。互联网会让美国的企业少赚钱而不是多赚钱。

(8)”Virtually every investment expert’s public assessment is that he is above average, no matter what is the evidence to the contrary.” 这可是芒格说的哈。

8，市面上对每个投资专家的评价都是高于平均的，不管有多少证据证明其实根本不是那回事儿。

(9)”Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.”

9，同第5条。

(10)”Warren spends 70 hours a week thinking about investing.”

10，巴菲特每个礼拜有70个小时花在思考投资上。

(11)”People calculate too much and think too little.” 投资上看起来确实如此。

11，人们算得太多、想得太少。

(12)”Whenever you think something or some person is ruining your life, it’s you. A victimization mentality is so debilitating.”

12，无论何时，如果你觉得有东西在摧毁你的生活，那个东西就是你自己。老觉得自己是受害者的想法是最削弱自己的利器。

所以老爸不叫李刚也不是借口。

(13)”The tax code gives you an enormous advantage if you can find some things you can just sit with.” 对美国人尤其如此，外国人投美股有点不同