2012年的极端天气凸显人为导致气候变化

Human-Caused Climate Change Seen In 2012 Extreme Weather

2012年的极端天气凸显人为导致气候变化

Washington —Human influences are having an impact on some extreme weather and climate events, according to the report Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective released September 5 by the American Meteorological Society.

华盛顿——据美国气象学会（American Meteorological Society）9月5日发表的《从气候观点解释2012年的极端天气事件》（Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective）报告，人为因素正在影响某些极端天气和气候事件。

Eighteen different research teams from around the world contributed to the peer-reviewed report that examined the causes of 12 extreme events which occurred on five continents and in the Arctic during 2012. Scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) served as three of the four lead editors on the report.

来自全世界的18个不同科研小组参与了这项同行审议报告的研究工作。报告分析了2012年期间发生在5大洲和北极地区（Arctic）的12个极端事件的原因。在报告4名主编中，有3名是美国国家海洋和大气管理局（U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）的科学家。

The report shows that the effects of natural weather and climate fluctuations played a key role in the intensity and evolution of the 2012 extreme events. However, in some events, the analyses revealed compelling evidence that human-caused climate change, through the emission of heat-trapping gases,

also contributed to the extreme event.

报告显示，自然天气和气候波动的效应在2012年极端事件的强烈度和演变中具有关键作用。然而在某些事件中，报告中的分析揭示出令人信服的证据，表明人为造成的气候变化——排放温室气体，也对极端事件起到推波助澜的作用。

“This report adds to a growing ability of climate science to untangle the complexities of understanding natural and human-induced factors contributing to specific extreme weather and climate events, ” said Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. “Nonetheless, determining the causes of extreme events remains challenging.”

国家海洋和大气管理局全国气候数据中心（NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center）主任托马斯•卡尔（Thomas R. Karl）说：“这个报告使气候科学更加能够理清复杂的导致具体极端天气和气候事件的自然和人为因素。尽管如此，确定极端事件的各种原因仍然颇具挑战性。”

In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events — the warm temperatures in the United States, the record-low levels of Arctic sea ice and the heavy rain in both northern Europe and eastern Australia —allowed the scientists to compare the strengths and weaknesses of their various methods of analysis. Despite their different strategies, there was considerable agreement between the assessments of the same events.

除了调查一些极端事件的原因之外，对其中4个事件的多重分析——美国暖和的气温、北极海冰面积创纪录缩小以及北欧和澳大利亚东部暴雨——让科学家们得以比较他们各种分析方法的优劣。但是，尽管采用的策略不尽相同，科学家对同一些事件的评估却相当一致。

Thomas Peterson, principal scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, and one of the lead editors on the report, said, “Scientists around the world assessed a wide variety of potential contributing factors to these major extreme events that, in many cases, had large impacts on society.