中国货币政策最终目标的选择与效果分析

一、引言货币政策最终目标的选择一直是理论界与实际工作部门关注的一个重要问题，一般包括物价稳定、充分就业、经济增长和国际收支平衡四个部分。

它们虽然分别表示了一个经济体内外部的最优均衡状态，但是之间存在冲突，如物价稳定与充分就业目标在短期内相冲突，这导致了经济体需要对其货币政策的最终目标进行选择。

货币目标制度一般包括以单一目标值和多重目标制。

单一目标制为货币学派所推崇，弗里德曼认为多重目标难以兼顾，易引起政策的过度调整；而凯恩斯学派则认为多重的权衡性货币目标制度能更好地解决错综复杂的经济问题。

我国现在实行“保持货币币值的稳定，并以此促进经济增长”的货币政策目标制度。

近几年来，次贷危机造成全球金融海啸，对我国的经济产生重大冲击，使我国的政策方向由控制通胀的紧缩型转变为刺激经济增长的宽松型政策；而随着美国量化宽松政策的启动，国际市场中大量流动性涌入中国，对中国造成输入性通胀压力，同时由于国内货币供给量的剧增，我国的通胀率一度远超3%-3.5%的警戒区间，货币政策再次进入紧缩阶段。

在复杂的国际国内经济金融形式下，研究货币政策最终目标的选择具有十分重要的意义。

本文将首先对货币最终目标的含义及各目标之间的具体关系与存在冲突进行介绍，然后会结合我国的经济现状分析现行的货币政策目标制度并用VEC模型检验两个最终目标之间的关系，并提出当今经济环境下应当选择的货币政策目标。

二、文献综述及我国现状货币政策目标及其制度的选择一直受到理论界的密切关注。

货币主义学派支持货币中性论，即货币政策的扩张和紧缩仅仅能影响通货膨胀率的波动而对产出和就业产生系统性的影响。

因此，货币主义学派主张采用通货膨胀率作为货币政策调控的长期目标。

而凯恩斯学派则持相反意见，他们认为经济现象错综复杂，现实社会中的经济问题也往往是多方面的，单一的货币政策目标难以兼顾，多重的货币政策目标能够更好的解决经济问题。

国内，不少学者就我国货币政策目标的选择进行了研究。

在单一目标与多目标制之争方面，谢平（2000）、宋海林和刘澄（2003）等就认为多目标约束的货币政策“要求过高”，“货币政策无论短期好还是长期都应该坚持稳定物价的单一目标”。

而周俊（2002）提出根据我国政治经济形式及当前的经济任务，我国应采用多重货币政策目标，即以币值稳定与经济增长为主。

何运信与曾令华（2004）则依据总供给曲线特征进行实证分析，由于正斜率总供给曲线的存在及该曲线的不稳定性及其测度上的不确定性，货币政策需要盯住通货膨胀与经济增长双重目标，而不能只注重物价稳定的单一目标。

就具体的货币政策目标选择方面，卢宝梅（2008）提出，我国应改变长期以来偏重经济增长目标而忽视价格稳定目标的政策导向，建立起灵活的通货膨胀目标制的货币政策。

陈之荣（2009）则提出在金融危机的影响下，中国货币政策的调控重点应当着眼于保证经济的平稳增长，同时也应预防扩张政策可能引发的通货膨胀风险。

徐茂魁（2010）通过VAR模型及脉冲响应模型证明中国以信贷扩张为主的货币政策比货币供应量为主货币政策更能有效地带动中国经济增长，并带来更小的通货膨胀，因此，在后金融危机时代，中国可以继续适度实施适度宽松的货币政策，但要更加注重货币政策的运用。

由此可见，在不同的经济金融形势下，中央银行应采取不同的货币政策目标。

三、物价稳定与经济增长的关系与目标选择1、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系控制物价稳定与保持经济增长使我国货币政策的主要目标，研究两者之间的相关关系有助于正确选择货币政策目标以及预测未来另一目标的变动情况，从而对经济形势的波动进行及时反馈。

下文将使用格兰杰因果检验、向量误差修正（VEC）模型验证两者之间的动态关系与该目标变动所产生的效果。

（1）数据来源与变量选择本文选取2006年第1季度至2013年第4季度的季度数据作为样本区间，数据来源于Resset金融数据库以及国家统计局。

本文使用CPI同比增长率表示通货膨胀情况，使用GDP 同比增长率作为经济增长指标，因为CPI只有月度数据，在此使用每季度三个月的平均同比增长率作为CPI季度同比增长率。

在建立模型之前，需要对数据序列的平稳性进行检验，这里使用ADF方法对两个变量进行单位根检验。

表1是两个变量的单位根检验结果：由于CPI和GDP的原数列是非平稳序列，而两者的一阶差分数列平稳，故而CPI和GDP 是一阶单整数列，可以对它们建立双变量向量误差修正模型（VEC模型）。

在建立模型前，还需要确定模型的滞后阶数。

使用LR、FPE、AIC、SC、HQ指标进行判断，可知模型的最大滞后阶数为2阶。

（2）模型建立与分析对CPI和GDP建立VEC模型，模型的四个AR根除去固有的一个1外均分布在单位圆内，说明模型具有长期稳定性。

而由格兰杰检验结果可知（表2），CPI增长率的变动是GDP增长率变动的格兰杰原因，而GDP增长率的变化不是CPI增长率波动的格兰杰原因。

这说明通货膨胀率的变动在很大程度上会引起经济增长率的变化，但是经济增长率的变化对通货膨胀率的变动所起的影响并不显著。

同时，通过VEC模型可以得到CPI和GDP的协整方程，从而得出两个变量的长期关系：DGDPt = -0.626+16.064*DCPIT从该协整方程可以看出，通货膨胀的变化在长期会对经济发展率变动产生较大的正向影响，因此从长期来看，保持物价稳定与促进经济增长的目标间具有冲突性。

协整方程的结论与通货膨胀会阻碍经济发展的推论不同，可能是因为经济危机后央行启动“四万亿”等刺激政策，向市场注入大量流动性，以投资增加拉动经济增长所致。

（3）脉冲响应函数分析为了进一步分析两个目标之间相互的短期影响，此处采用脉冲响应函数进行分析。

根据CPI对GDP的冲击影响图形，当给CPI一个单位的正向冲击，GDP的当期即会有所反应，经过小幅波动后迅速下降，在第7个月左右达到最低值，而后经波动逐渐趋近于-1。

这说明通货膨胀的冲击在短期内会对经济发展起到剧烈的抑制作用。

此处短期冲击与长期协整关系的不同也体现了货币政策目标在不同经济形势下可能会体现不同的相互关系。

等诸多问题会逐步显现。

为保持我国的经济持续平稳增长，央行还应做好以下几个方面的工作：第一、综合运用数量、价格等多种货币政策工具组合，保持国内市场中流动性适度，以实现货币信贷和社会融资规模合理增长；第二，应当加大对中小微企业、“三农”产业以及重大项目的信贷支持力度，支持经济结构调整和转型升级；第三、进一步完善金融调控机制，推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革；第四、进一步健全市场利率定价自律机制，提高金融机构自主定价能力，并逐步扩大金融机构负债产品市场化定价范围；第五，通过加强宏观层面的风险管理控制、引导金融机构稳健经营、督促金融机构加强流动性控制和风险管理来有效防范系统性金融风险，维护金融体系稳定，保持经济平稳运行。

I. IntroductionThe choice of monetary policy ultimate goal has always been an important issue in the field of theory and practice, including price stability, full employment, economic growth and balance of international payments in four parts. They although represent, respectively, a economy inside and outside of the optimal equilibrium state, but between the conflict, such as price stability and full employment in the short term conflict, which leads to the economy need the ultimate objective of monetary policy to choose. The monetary target system includes a single target value and multiple objectives. The single target of Monetary School held in esteem, Friedman believed that multiple objectives to balance, easy to cause the policy of excessive adjustment; and Keynesians think multiple tradeoffs of monetary targeting system can better solve the problem of complex economy. China is now implementing the monetary policy objective system to keep the currency stable, and to promote economic growth.In recent years, the subprime crisis caused by the global financial tsunami, to have a significant impact on China's economy, make China's policy direction by the control of inflation austerity type change to stimulate economic growth of loose policy; and with the start of the United States of America's quantitative easing policy, in the international market liquidity into China, of China caused by imported inflation pressure, also due to the rapid increase in the domestic money supply, China's inflation rate once far more than 3% - 3.5% of the guard interval, monetary policy once again into the contraction phase. Under the complicated international and domestic economic and financial form, it is very important to study the choice of the ultimate goal of monetary policy. This will be the first the specific relationship between the target and the meaning to the ultimate goal of monetary and there is a conflict are introduced and then combined with China's economic situation analysis current monetary policy target system and VEC model to test the relationship between the two goals, and it is proposed that the present economic environment should choose the monetary policy objectives.Two, literature review and the current situation of our countryThe choice of monetary policy objective and its system has been closely watched by the theorists. The school of monetary policy supports monetary neutrality, that is, the expansion and contraction of monetary policy can only influence the fluctuation of inflation rate and have a systematic effect on output and employment. As a result, the school of the school of economics advocates the adoption of inflation rate as a long-term goal of monetary policy control. And the Keynesians hold the opposite view. They think that complex economic phenomena and the economic problems of the social reality also tend to be more, the single goal of monetary policy is difficult to take into account, the multiple objectives of monetary policy can better solve theproblem of economy.In China, many scholars have studied the choice of China's monetary policy objectives. In terms of single object and multi object of dispute, Xie Ping (2000), Hailin song and Liucheng (2003), that a multi-objective constrained monetary policy "too high", "monetary policy regardless of short-term or long term should adhere to the price stability of single target". And Zhou Jun (2002) put forward according to our country's political and economic forms and the current economic task, our country should adopt multiple monetary policy goal, that is, currency stability and economic growth. Yun Xin he and Zeng Hua (2004) is, according to the characteristic of aggregate supply curve for empirical analysis, as is the existence of the slope of the aggregate supply curve and the curve of stability and measurement uncertainty, monetary policy needs to be focusing on inflation and economic growth of dual target, not only focus on a single goal of price stability.Select the aspect specific objectives of monetary policy. Lu Baomei (2008) proposed, China should change for a long time lay particular stress on economic growth target and ignore the goal of price stability oriented policies, set up the flexible inflation targeting monetary policy. Chen Zhirong (2009) is proposed under the impact of the financial crisis, a focus on the regulation of China's monetary policy should focus on ensuring that the economy steady growth, but also should prevent expansion policy may lead to the risk of inflation. Xumaokui (2010) by VAR model and pulse response model, it is proved that the credit expansion of monetary policy than money supply mainly monetary policy more effective impetus to China's economic growth, and to bring a smaller inflation. Therefore, in the post financial crisis era, China can continue to appropriate implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, but to pay more attention to the use of monetary policy. Thus, in different economic and financial situation, the central bank should take different monetary policy objectives.Three, the relationship between price stability and economic growth and target selection 1, the relationship between inflation and economic growthControlling price stability and to maintain economic growth so that the main goal of China's monetary policy, the relationship between the two sides has help to correct choice of monetary policy goals and predict changes in the future another goal, timely feedback and the fluctuation of the economic situation. Grainger causality test and vector error correction (VEC) model are used to verify the dynamic relationship between the two and the effect of the change of the target.(1) data sources and variable selectionThis paper selects quarterly data from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2013 as a sample interval, the data from the Resset financial database and the National Bureau of statistics. In this paper, we use the CPI growth rate of inflation, GDP growth rate as the index of economic growth, because the CPI only monthly data used in this quarterly three months compared to the average growth rate as the quarter CPI year-on-year growth rate.。