心理学专业外语翻译第17页

Psychology and Science3

THEORIES AND HYPOTHESES

A science should involve theories which provide hypotheses to be tested in order to support or refute the theories.The theories themselves should provide general laws or principles to fulfil the aims of science –understanding, prediction , and control .

1 understanding –Theories should provide understanding by being ·orderly （theories should organise facts and find regularities and patterns to generate laws）.

·internally consistent （different parts of the theory should not contradict each other）

·parsimonious(provide the greatest possible explanation in the most economic way)

·true！（theories should correctly explain reality）

2 Prediction – A good theory should generate lots of bold ,precise hypotheses to stimulate research to support or refute the theory .

·According to Karl Popper scientific theories should be refutable(able to be 心理学与科学Ⅲ

理论与假设

科学应包括基本的理论，这些理论提供的假设能够被测量，从而支持或拒绝这些理论，同时，理论本身应当提供一般性的法则或原理，以实现科学的三项目标——理解、预测和控制。

1 理解—理论应当解释客观世界是什么（关于可理解性主要从以下几个方面理解）

·有序性——理论通过组织论据，按照一定的规则和模式形成一定法则·内在一致性—理论的各部分之间不相矛盾，具有一致性。

·简约性——以最经济的方式进行最有可能的诠释

·准确性——理论应该准确地解释

现实

2 预测——好的理论能够产生大量的大胆而又准确的假设，以激励大量相关研究来支持或反驳这个理论。

·根据卡

卡尔

尔的研究，科学理论应该

shown wrong) and research should aim to falsify rather than support theories –since it is all too easy to find support to fit your theory ,especially if you expect to find it .Falsification is best achieved by advancing bold and precise hypotheses, and if a theory is falsified then it should be rejected .Thus Popper is suggesting that science advances through refutation rather than support .This is why we ensure that we include a null hypothesis.

·Another philosopher of science ,Imre Lakatos , suggests that theories should be given a chance to prove themselves first ,so they can develop . Lakatos proposes that theories or paradigms should have a hard core of crucial assumptions and a protective belt of auxiliary hypotheses –this belt can support being falsified to a certain extent （perhaps the first experiments made type 2 errors）but the hard core should remain unfalsified for the theory to remain credible. Good theories, he added , should also provide a positive heuristic – a future research program to generate new hypotheses and to produce unexpected findings. Theories provide laws and principles to

具有可证伪性，并且研究也应去证实理论可能是错的，而不是一味的支持。因为太容易找到适合自己理论的支持性证据，尤其是如果你想找到。正因为这大胆而又明确的假设使得真伪性验证工作取得了重大成效。如果一种理论是虚假的，就应该拒绝，因此卡尔就建议科学的进步在于反驳而不是一味的支持。这就是为什么我们保证我们有一个虚无假设。

另一位科学哲学家（英）伊姆雷·拉卡托斯，提出理论首先要证实它们自己的正确性，这样才能够发展进步。Lakatos建议，无论是理论还是范式都应该有一帮中坚分子坚定地保护重要假设和一条辅助假设，而这一保护带在某种程度上要支持被证实其虚假性，然而，这一保护带应该保持理论的真实性和可信性。Lakatos补充说，一个好的理论还应该有正面的启发式论据—未来的研究计划，以产生新的假设，产生意想不到的结果。

·理论可以提供一定的法则和原理来预测未来，当然，它是建立在以下条件基础上的