项目风险管理分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
外文翻译外文文献英文文献国际建设工程风险分析
外文文献:This analysis used a case study methodology to analyze the issues surrounding the partial collapse of the roof of a building housing the headquarters of the Standards Association of Zimbabwe (SAZ). In particular, it examined the prior roles played by the team of construction professionals. The analysis revealed that the SAZ’s traditional construction project was generally characterized by high risk. There was a clear indication of the failure of a contractor and architects in preventing and/or mitigating potential construction problems as alleged by the plaintiff. It was reasonable to conclude that between them the defects should have been detected earlier and rectified in good time before the partial roof failure. It appeared justified for the plaintiff to have brought a negligence claim against both the contractor and the architects. The risk analysis facilitated, through its multi-dimensional approach to a critical examination of a construction problem, the identification of an effective risk management strategy for future construction prject and riskThe structural design of the reinforced concrete elements was done by consulting engineers Knight Piesold (KP). Quantity surveying services were provided by Hawkins, Leshnick & Bath (HLB). The contract was awarded to Central African Building Corporation (CABCO) who was also responsible for the provision of a specialist roof structure using patented “gang nail” roof trusses. The building construction proceeded to completion and was handed over to the owners on Sept. 12, 1991. The SAZ took effective occupation of the headquarters building without a certificate of occupation. Also, the defects liability period was only three months .The roof structure was in place 10 years At first the SAZ decided to go to arbitration, but this failed to yield an immediate solution. The SAZ then decided toproceed to litigate in court and to bring a negligence claim against CABCO. The preparation for arbitration was reused for litigation. The SAZ’s quantified losses stood at approximately $ 6 million in Zimbabwe dollars (US $1.2m) .After all parties had examined the facts and evidence before them, it became clear that there was a great probability that the courts might rule that both the architects and the contractor were lia ble. It was at this stage that the defendants’ lawyers requested that the matter be settled out of court. The plaintiff agreed to this suxamined the prior roles played by the project management function and construction professionals in preventing/mitigating potential construction problems. It further assessed the extent to which the employer/client and parties to a construction contract are able to recover damages under that contract. The main objective of this critical analysis was to identify an effective risk management strategy for future construction projects. The importance of this study is its multidimensional examination approach.Experience sugge be misleading. All construction projects are prototypes to some extent and imply change. Change in the construction industry itself suggests that past experience is unlikely to be sufficient on its own. A structured approach is required. Such a structure can not and must not replace the experience and expertise of the participant. Rather, it brings additional benefits that assist to clarify objectives, identify the nature of the uncertainties, introduces effective communication systems, improves decision-making, introduces effective risk control measures, protects the project objectives and provides knowledge of the risk history .Construction professionals need to know how to balance the contingencies of risk with their specific contractual, financial, operational and organizational requirements. Many construction professionals look at risks in dividually with a myopic lens and donot realize the potential impact that other associated risks may have on their business operations. Using a holistic risk management approach will enable a firm to identify all of the organization’s business risks. This will increas e the probability of risk mitigation, with the ultimate goal of total risk elimination .Recommended key construction and risk management strategies for future construction projects have been considered and their explanation follows. J.W. Hinchey stated th at there is and can be no ‘best practice’ standard for risk allocation on a high-profile project or for that matter, any project. He said, instead, successful risk management is a mind-set and a process. According to Hinchey, the ideal mind-set is for the parties and their representatives to, first, be intentional about identifying project risks and then to proceed to develop a systematic and comprehensive process for avoiding, mitigat and its location. This is said to be necessary not only to allow alternative responses to be explored. But also to ensure that the right questions are asked and the major risks identified. Heads of sources of risk are said to be a convenient way of providing a structure for identifying risks to completion of a participant’s pa rt of the project. Effective risk management is said to require a multi-disciplinary approach. Inevitably risk management requires examination of engineering, legal and insurance related solutions .It is stated that the use of analytical techniques based on a statistical approach could be of enormous use in decision making . Many of these techniques are said to be relevant to estimation of the consequences of risk events, and not how allocation of risk is to be achieved. In addition, at the present stage of the development of risk management, Atkinson states that it must be recognized that major decisions will be made that can not be based solely on mathematical analysis. The complexity ofconstruction projects means that the project definition in terms of both physical form and organizational structure will be based on consideration of only a relatively small number of risks . This is said to then allow a general structured approach that can be applied to any construction project to increase the awareness of participants .The new, simplified Construction Design and Management Regulations (CDM Regulations) which came in to f 1996, into a single regulatory package.The new CDM regulations offer an opportunity for a step change in health and safety performance and are used to reemphasize the health, safety and broader business benefits of a well-managed and co-ordinated approach to the management of health and safety in construction. I believe that the development of these skills is imperative to provide the client with the most effective services available, delivering the best value project possible.Construction Management at Risk (CM at Risk), similar to established private sector methods of construction contracting, is gaining popularity in the public sector. It is a process that allows a client to select a construction manager (CM) based on qualifications; make the CM a member of a collaborative project team; centralize responsibility for construction under a single contract; obtain a bonded guaranteed maximum price; produce a more manageable, predictable project; save time and money; and reduce risk for the client, the architect and the CM.CM at Risk, a more professional approach to construction, is taking its place along with design-build, bridging and the more traditional process of design-bid-build as an established method of project delivery.The AE can review to get the projec. Competition in the community is more equitable: all subcontractors have a fair shot at the work .A contingency within the GMP covers unexpected but justifiable costs, and a contingency above the GMP allows for client changes. As long as the subcontractors are within the GMP they are reimbursed to the CM, so the CM represents the client in negotiating inevitable changes with subcontractors.There can be similar problems where each party in a project is separately insured. For this reason a move towards project insurance is recommended. The traditional approach reinforces adversarial attitudes, and even provides incentives for people to overlook or conceal risks in an attempt to avoid or transfer responsibility.A contingency within the GMP covers unexpected but justifiable costs, and a contingency above the GMP allows for client changes. As long as the subcontractors are within the GMP they are reimbursed to the CM, so the CM represents the client in negotiating inevitable changes with subcontractors.There can be similar problems where each party in a project is separately insured. For this reason a move towards project insurance is recommended. The traditional approach reinforces adversarial attitudes, and even provides incentives for people to overlook or conceal risks in an attempt to avoid or transfer responsibility.It was reasonable to assume that between them the defects should have been detected earlier and rectified in good time before the partial roof failure. It did appear justified for the plaintiff to have brought a negligence claim against both the contractor and the architects.In many projects clients do not understand the importance of their role in facilitating cooperation and coordination; the desi recompense. They do not want surprises, and are more likely to engage in litigation when things go wrong.中文译文:国际建设工程风险分析索赔看来是合乎情理的。
财务风险管理外文翻译英文文献
财务风险管理中英文资料翻译Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years,risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The resultof increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with eventsthousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domesticmarket。
Information is available instantaneously,which means thatchange, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly.The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly bychanges in exchange rates,interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterpartiescan rapidly become problematic. As a result,it is important toensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately。
Preparationis a key component of risk management。
What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure havesubtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss,while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often usedinterchangeably。
中英文外文文献翻译中小企业财务风险管理研究
本科毕业设计(论文)中英文对照翻译(此文档为word格式,下载后您可任意修改编辑!)作者:Bernard G期刊:International Journal of Information Business and Management 第5卷,第3期,pp:41-51.原文The research of financial Risk Management in SMESBernard GINTRUDUCTIONSmall and medium sized enterprises (SME) differ from large corporations among other aspects first of all in their size. Theirimportance in the economy however is large . SME sector of India is considered as the backbone of economy contributing to 45% of the industrial output, 40% of India’s exports, employing 60 million people, create 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8000 quality products for the Indian and international markets. With approximately 30 million SMEs in India, 12 million people expected to join the workforce in next 3 years and the sector growing at a rate of 8% per year, Government of India is taking different measures so as to increase their competitiveness in the international market. There are several factors that have contributed towards the growth of Indian SMEs. Few of these include; funding of SMEs by local and foreign investors, the new technology that is used in the market is assisting SMEs add considerable value to their business, various trade directories and trade portals help facilitate trade between buyer and supplier and thus reducing the barrier to trade With this huge potential, backed up by strong government support; Indian SMEs continue to post their growth stories. Despite of this strong growth, there is huge potential amongst Indian SMEs that still remains untapped. Once this untapped potential becomes the source for growth of these units, there would be no stopping to India posting a GDP higher than that of US and China and becoming the world’s economic powerhouse. RESEARCH QUESTIONRisk and economic activity are inseparable. Every business decisionand entrepreneurial act is connected with risk. This applies also to business of small and medium sized enterprises as they are also facing several and often the same risks as bigger companies. In a real business environment with market imperfections they need to manage those risks in order to secure their business continuity and add additional value by avoiding or reducing transaction costs and cost of financial distress or bankruptcy. However, risk management is a challenge for most SME. In contrast to larger companies they often lack the necessary resources, with regard to manpower, databases and specialty of knowledge to perform a standardized and structured risk management. The result is that many smaller companies do not perform sufficient analysis to identify their risk. This aspect is exacerbated due to a lack in literature about methods for risk management in SME, as stated by Henschel: The two challenging aspects with regard to risk management in SME are therefore: 1. SME differ from large corporations in many characteristics 2. The existing research lacks a focus on risk management in SME The following research question will be central to this work: 1.how can SME manage their internal financial risk? 2.Which aspects, based on their characteristics, have to be taken into account for this? 3.Which mean fulfils the requirements and can be applied to SME? LITERA TURE REVIEWIn contrast to larger corporations, in SME one of the owners is oftenpart of the management team. His intuition and experience are important for managing the company. Therefore, in small companies, the (owner-) manager is often responsible for many different tasks and important decisions. Most SME do not have the necessary resources to employ specialists on every position in the company. They focus on their core business and have generalists for the administrative functions. Behr and Guttler find that SME on average have equity ratios lower than 20%. The different characteristics of management, position on procurement and capital markets and the legal framework need to be taken into account when applying management instruments like risk management. Therefore the risk management techniques of larger corporations cannot easily be applied to SME. In practice it can therefore be observed that although SME are not facing less risks and uncertainties than large companies, their risk management differs from the practices in larger companies. The latter have the resources to employ a risk manager and a professional, structured and standardized risk management system. In contrast to that, risk management in SME differs in the degree of implementation and the techniques applied. Jonen & Simgen-Weber With regard to firm size and the use of risk management. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius observe in a study from 2010 that increasing firm size among SME enhances the use of risk management. This observation matches with the opinion of nearly 10% of SME, which are of the opinion, that risk management is onlyreasonable in larger corporations. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius find that most of the surveyed SME identify risks with help of statistics, checklists, creativity and scenario analyses. reveals similar findings and state that most companies rely on key figure systems for identifying and evaluating the urgency of business risks. That small firms face higher costs of hedging than larger corporations. This fact is reducing the benefits from hedging and therefore he advises to evaluate the usage of hedging for each firm individually. The lacking expertise to decide about hedges in SME is also identified by Eckbo, According to his findings, smaller companies often lack the understanding and management capacities needed to use those instruments. METHODOLOGY USE OF FINANCIAL ANAL YSIS IN SME RISK MANAGEMENT How financial analysis can be used in SME risk management? Development of financial risk overview for SME The following sections show the development of the financial risk overview. After presenting the framework, the different ratios will be discussed to finally present a selection of suitable ratios and choose appropriate comparison data. Framework for financial risk overviewThe idea is to use a set of ratios in an overview as the basis for the financial risk management.This provides even more information than the analysis of historicaldata and allows reacting fast on critical developments and managing the identified risks. However not only the internal data can be used for the risk management. In addition to that also the information available in the papers can be used. Some of them state average values for the defaulted or bankrupt companies one year prior bankruptcy -and few papers also for a longer time horizon. Those values can be used as a comparison value to evaluate the risk situation of the company. For this an appropriate set of ratios has to be chosen. The ratios, which will be included in the overview and analysis sheet, should fulfill two main requirements. First of all they should match the main financial risks of the company in order to deliver significant information and not miss an important risk factor. Secondly the ratios need to be relevant in two different ways. On the one hand they should be applicable independently of other ratios. This means that they also deliver useful information when not used in a regression, as it is applied in many of the papers. On the other hand to be appropriate to use them, the ratios need to show a different development for healthy companies than for those under financial distress. The difference between the values of the two groups should be large enough to see into which the observed company belongs. Evaluation of ratios for financial risk overview When choosing ratios from the different categories, it needs to be evaluated which ones are the most appropriate ones. For this some comparison values are needed inorder to see whether the ratios show different values and developments for the two groups of companies. The most convenient source for the comparison values are the research papers as their values are based on large samples of annual reports and by providing average values outweigh outliers in the data. Altman shows a table with the values for 8 different ratios for the five years prior bankruptcy of which he uses 5, while Porporato & Sandin use 13 ratios in their model and Ohlson bases his evaluation on 9 figures and ratios [10]. Khong, Ong & Y ap and Cerovac & Ivicic also show the difference in ratios between the two groups, however only directly before bankruptcy and not as a development over time [9]. Therefore this information is not as valuable as the others ([4][15]).In summary, the main internal financial risks in a SME should be covered by financial structure, liquidity and profitability ratios, which are the main categories of ratios applied in the research papers.Financial structureA ratio used in many of the papers is the total debt to total assets ratio, analyzing the financial structure of the company. Next to the papers of Altman, Ohlson and Porporato & Sandin also Khong, Ong & Y ap and Cerovac & Ivicic show comparison values for this ratio. Those demonstrate a huge difference in size between the bankrupt andnon-bankrupt groups.Therefore the information of total debt/total assets is more reliable and should rather be used for the overview. The other ratios analyzing the financial structure are only used in one of the papers and except for one the reference data only covers the last year before bankruptcy. Therefore a time trend cannot be detected and their relevance cannot be approved.译文中小企业财务风险管理研究博纳德引言除了其他方面,中小型企业(SME)与大型企业的不同之处首先在于他们的规模不同,但是,他们在国民经济中同样具有重要的作用。
项目风险管理 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献
外文翻译As one of the important subjects of project management originated the First World War, and now it has been becoming more and more systematic and professional. In China the systematic project risk management framework was developed by the end of last century, but the practical application of project risk management still needs further improvement. With above background, this thesis focused on the medium or large real estate project, research project character, project management, typical Chinese construction project process, risk management, and project risk management. The first chapter briefed the current international and domestic study status of the subject, thesis purpose, and thesis scope, which are risk and its countermeasures research for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. The second chapter briefed the concept and character of real estate project, risk of project, and project risk management, which is the theoretical foundation of further risk management study for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. Chapter3,4 and 5 are the project risk management practice on the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. Chapter 3 is for project engineering risk management, which introduced the concept, purpode, and principle of project engineering at the beginning, and then analyzed the engineering objective, including schedule, cost, and quality, at last it identified and analyzed the project engineering risks and provided design change procedure and design company selection procedure as the risk response. Chapter 4 detailed the concept, principle, objective and key roles of project procurement, identified and assessed the project procurement risk, and also provided contractor selection procedure, vendor selection procedure, examples of procurement plans to response and monitor project risk. Chapter 5 firstly introduced the construction concept, character, process and project construction objectives, including quality objective, schedule objective, and safety objective, and then identified and assessed construction quality risk, schedule risk, cost risk and safety risk, The postscript of this thesis briefed the dynamic project risk management concept, restriction and limitation of this thesis, and opportunities for further research. Totally there are 14 appendixes attached after the thesis. These appendixes could be used as guidance and reference of risk management for real estate project. They are provided to be very useful in term of risk management for real estate project implementation phases.Project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which information will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and activity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame. These forecasts are hypotheses abstract form the similar project performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the planto real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, consume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage is process not only to form the real proprirty but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the manager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response plan according to the condition. This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision under risk condition in the implement stage of construction project.This thesis begins with the knowledge system of project management, analyses the whole course of risk management and sets forth the method and program of project risk identification, risk appraisement and risk monitoring in project minutely. Finally, It shows a risk case of building project focal point for the investment decision of early stage with qualitative and quantitative analysis. Chapter 1 Discuss the important concept, method and knowledge system of project risk management, such as the definition of project, the knowledge system of project management PMBOKX the intension of risk, the content of risk management and so on ,carry out the risk analysis of building project emphatically. Chapter 2 Mainly introduce the tool and technology of project risk identification, such as checking table, the rules of systems analysis(WBS), the method of SWOT technology. Thinking of the demerit for every tool, hence author emphasize that we should appraise the gained information resource synthetically. Chapter 3 Explain how to go on the estimation and assessment of project risk, put forward the tool and technology of project risk analysis (as AHP, probability and sensitivity analysis ). When analyzing project risk quantitatively, first we should have definite warranty, do not surmise risk without foundation; Secondly, distinguish confirmed project from unconfirmed project in quantitative analysis. When using two important tools of quantitative risk analysis—probability and sensitivity analysis, one side is to estimate the probability of risk variable exactly; the other side is to judge and analyze the guidelines of probability analysis truly, as square margin, expected figure, disperse modulus. Through quantifying risk, it can strengthen our sense of risk management. Chapter 4 Elaborate the basic method of monitoring project risk. In order to carry into execution monitoring project risk, it is essential to establish perfect replying risk plan. The main steps is: lessening risk, take precautions against risk (as project method, instructing method, program method), conveying risk selling, inviting public bidding, the contract of absolving obligation, insurance and guarantee), avoidance, leave behind and measure in support. Chapter 5 A risk management example. First, analyze the various possible existent risk factors of this project systematically. Secondly, study its sensitivity factor thorough quantifying assessment risk for the project, as well as establishing and putting in practice a plan in order to control the negative influence in minimum level. The building has total 130500 square in architectural area, superior geographical location and tremendously potential value, its overall investment is 4.26 hundreds million. This chapter first studies the market from place environment all around traffic and market requirement, then analyzes systematically financing risk and organic risk of joint venture. On the basis of foregoing analysis, it establishes some parameter of risk quantifying analysis, calculates its selling revenue running expense and cash flow form, uses sensitivity analysis to gain best sensitivityfactor. As the uncertain essence of risk, it is extremely important to analyze probability factor of the project. So we confirm the probability form of every variable, then calculate present value of each possible event according to different constitutes of risk variable; and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative probability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision. Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk management to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basis International project contracting is rather a complex project in the cooperation of international economy and technology, and the implementing of the projects will be influenced by political, economy and social situations Firstly, this paper systemically analyzed the market situation of the international project contracting, and concretely analyzed the market structure in Asia, America, Africa and Europe. It concluded the trend of the development of the international contracting market; projects are becoming large-scale and complex and the contracting pattern is diversified, and the management of the international project contracting is standardized. Secondly, this paper analyzed the development status and characteristic of the international project contracting in our country. Although the internationalization tendency of our country’s international project contracting firm is preferable, there is large gap in the whole strength when compared with firms from the developed countries, and also there are limitations in the distributing of the projects in different regions and industries. Thirdly, this paper summarized the technique of international project contracting risk identification, estimate and appraise in our country. Put forward to finance and non-finance risk treating means, and apply the energy release theory to international project contracting risk management, and research the dominating risk in the bid phase and construction and build the energy release model of each phrase. In the cases of Kun River Hydroelectric Station Project in Vietnam and Aromatic Plant Shali Irrigation Project in Nepal, this paper put forward to the technique of the international project contracting risk identification, estimation, appraise and reply in dealing with the project risk. Finally, in the risk estimation and risk appraise, this paper paid attention to evaluate the losing caused by the risk exactly; in the risk reply ,give attention to two aspects of cost and return, look after the economic and logical risk reply measure, in order to make the project risk least, the operating of companies most efficiently and the return highest外文翻译项目风险管理作为项目管理的重要内容之一,起源于第一次世界大战之后。
项目风险管理范文[英文版]
项目风险管理范文[英文版]Risk Management Plan1. IntroductionThe purpose of this risk management plan is to identify, evaluate, and mitigate risks associated with our project. It aims to ensure that potential risks are understood, and appropriate measures are taken to minimize their impact on the project's success.2. Risk IdentificationIn this phase, all possible risks are identified by involving project team members, stakeholders, and subject matter experts. Risks can be categorized as technical, financial, operational, or legal risks. Some of the risks identified for this project include:- Technical risks: unexpected system failures, integration issues.- Financial risks: cost overruns, budget constraints.- Operational risks: resource unavailability, changes in requirements.- Legal risks: non-compliance with regulations, intellectual property disputes.3. Risk EvaluationOnce the risks are identified, they are evaluated based on their impact and likelihood of occurrence. This evaluation helps prioritize risks and allocate resources accordingly. The evaluation criteria include the severity of impact, likelihood of occurrence, and ability to detect the risk early. A risk matrix is used to categorize risks as high, medium, or low risk.4. Risk MitigationTo mitigate identified risks, appropriate strategies and actions must be defined. The risk mitigation plan includes the following steps: - Technical risks: regular system checks and maintenance, implementing redundancy measures.- Financial risks: regular budget monitoring, proactive cost management.- Operational risks: resource allocation and planning, maintaining clear communications with stakeholders.- Legal risks: adherence to relevant regulations, obtaining necessary permissions and licenses.5. Risk Monitoring and ControlMonitoring and control of risks are crucial throughout the project's lifecycle. This includes monitoring the progress of risk mitigation actions, identifying new risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of implemented mitigation strategies. Risk logs will be maintained, which will document all identified risks and their status. Regular risk review meetings will be conducted to ensure that risks are managed effectively.6. ReportingRegular risk reports will be generated and shared with project stakeholders and senior management. These reports will provide information on the identified risks, their current status, and progress on risk mitigation efforts. Reporting will help keep all stakeholders informed about the project's risk profile.7. ConclusionEffective risk management is an essential aspect of project management. This risk management plan provides a framework foridentifying, evaluating, and mitigating risks associated with our project. By proactively addressing potential risks, we can ensure the smooth execution and successful completion of our project.8. Risk Response PlanningOnce the risks have been evaluated, it is important to develop a response plan for each identified risk. The response plan should include proactive measures to minimize the impact of risks and reactive actions to be taken in case the risk occurs. The response plans should be documented and shared with the project team members and stakeholders.The response plan for technical risks may include regular system checks and maintenance to ensure that any potential failures or system issues are identified and resolved promptly. Additionally, implementing redundancy measures such as backup systems or redundant components can help mitigate the impact of technical risks.For financial risks, the response plan may involve regular budget monitoring and proactive cost management. This can include closely tracking expenses, identifying cost-saving opportunities, and re-evaluating budget allocation if necessary. The team should also be prepared to take immediate action in case of cost overruns by reallocating resources or seeking additional funding. Operational risks can be mitigated through effective resource allocation and planning. This includes properly assessing and assigning resources to different tasks, and maintaining clear communication channels with stakeholders. Regular meetings and updates can help identify any potential changes in requirements orresource availability, allowing the team to adjust plans accordingly and minimize the impact of operational risks.Legal risks can be managed by ensuring compliance with relevant regulations and obtaining the necessary permissions and licenses. This may involve consulting with legal experts or involving regulatory bodies early in the project. Intellectual property (IP) disputes can be mitigated by properly documenting and protecting the project's IP and seeking legal counsel if necessary.9. Risk Monitoring and ControlThe risk management process does not end with the development of response plans. It is important to continuously monitor and control risks throughout the project's lifecycle. This includes regularly reviewing and updating the risk register, tracking the progress of risk mitigation actions, and identifying new risks that may arise during project execution.Regular risk review meetings should be conducted to assess the effectiveness of implemented mitigation strategies and identify any changes in the risk environment. These meetings provide an opportunity for the project team members to discuss and share updates on risk management activities. Any new risks that are identified should be carefully evaluated, and appropriate response plans should be developed.In addition to risk review meetings, project progress reports should include updates on the status of identified risks and the progress of risk mitigation efforts. This enables stakeholders and senior management to stay informed about the project's risk profile andmake informed decisions based on the current risk situation.10. Communication and Stakeholder EngagementEffective communication and stakeholder engagement are critical components of successful risk management. All stakeholders should be kept informed about the identified risks, potential impacts, and mitigation strategies. This includes project team members, sponsors, clients, and external partners.Regular communication channels should be established to ensure that all stakeholders are provided with timely updates on risk management activities. This can be done through project meetings, progress reports, and dedicated risk communication sessions.Engaging stakeholders in the risk management process can also help in identifying new risks or potential mitigation strategies. Stakeholders often have valuable insights and experiences that can contribute to the project's risk management efforts. Their input and feedback should be actively sought, and any concerns or suggestions should be carefully considered and addressed.11. ConclusionAn effective risk management plan is an essential tool for any project. By proactively identifying, evaluating, and mitigating risks, project teams can minimize the impact of potential issues and increase the chances of project success.This risk management plan provides a comprehensive framework for managing risks throughout the project lifecycle. It includes the identification and evaluation of risks, the development of responseplans, and the ongoing monitoring and control of risks. Regular communication and stakeholder engagement are also emphasized to ensure that all relevant parties are kept informed and involved in the risk management process.By following this plan and regularly reviewing and updating it as necessary, project teams can effectively manage risks and improve their ability to deliver successful outcomes.。
工程管理专业外文文献翻译(中英文)【精选文档】
xxxxxx 大学本科毕业设计外文翻译Project Cost Control: the Way it Works项目成本控制:它的工作方式学院(系): xxxxxxxxxxxx专业: xxxxxxxx学生姓名: xxxxx学号: xxxxxxxxxx指导教师: xxxxxx评阅教师:完成日期:xxxx大学项目成本控制:它的工作方式在最近的一次咨询任务中,我们意识到对于整个项目成本控制体系是如何设置和应用的,仍有一些缺乏理解。
所以我们决定描述它是如何工作的.理论上,项目成本控制不是很难跟随。
首先,建立一组参考基线。
然后,随着工作的深入,监控工作,分析研究结果,预测最终结果并比较参考基准。
如果最终的结果不令人满意,那么你要对正在进行的工作进行必要的调整,并在合适的时间间隔重复。
如果最终的结果确实不符合基线计划,你可能不得不改变计划.更有可能的是,会 (或已经) 有范围变更来改变参考基线,这意味着每次出现这种情况你必须改变基线计划。
但在实践中,项目成本控制要困难得多,通过项目数量无法控制成本也证明了这一点。
正如我们将看到的,它还需要大量的工作,我们不妨从一开始启用它。
所以,要跟随项目成本控制在整个项目的生命周期.同时,我们会利用这一机会来指出几个重要文件的适当的地方。
其中包括商业案例,请求(资本)拨款(执行),工作包和工作分解结构,项目章程(或摘要),项目预算或成本计划、挣值和成本基线。
所有这些有助于提高这个组织的有效地控制项目成本的能力。
业务用例和应用程序(执行)的资金重要的是要注意,当负责的管理者对于项目应如何通过项目生命周期展开有很好的理解时,项目成本控制才是最有效的。
这意味着他们在主要阶段的关键决策点之间行使职责。
他们还必须识别项目风险管理的重要性,至少可以确定并计划阻止最明显的潜在风险事件。
在项目的概念阶段•每个项目始于确定的机会或需要的人.通常是有着重要性和影响力的人,如果项目继续,这个人往往成为项目的赞助。
商业银行风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
商业银行风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)“RISK MANAGEMENT IN COMMERCIAL BANKS”(A CASE STUDY OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS) - ABSTRACT ONLY1. PREAMBLE:1.1 Risk Management:The future of banking will undoubtedly rest on risk management dynamics. Only those banks that have efficient risk management system will survive in the market in the long run. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of comprehensive risk management essential for long-term success of a banking institution. Credit risk is the oldest and biggest risk that bank, by virtue of its very nature of business, inherits. This has however, acquired a greater significance in the recent past for various reasons. Foremost among them is the wind of economic liberalization that is blowing across the globe. India is no exception to this swing towards market driven economy. Competition from within and outside the country has intensified. This has resulted in multiplicity of risks both in number and volume resulting in volatile markets. A precursor to successful management of credit risk is a clear understanding about risks involved in lending, quantifications of risks within each item of the portfolio and reaching a conclusion as to the likely composite credit risk profile of a bank.The corner stone of credit risk management is the establishment of a framework that defines corporate priorities, loan approval process, credit risk rating system, risk-adjusted pricing system, loan-review mechanism and comprehensive reporting system.1.2 Significance of the study:The fundamental business of lending has brought trouble to individual banks and entire banking system. It is, therefore, imperative that the banks are adequate systems for credit assessment of individual projects and evaluating risk associated therewith as well as the industry as a whole. Generally, Banks in India evaluate a proposal through the traditional tools of project financing, computing maximum permissible limits, assessing management capabilities and prescribing a ceiling for an industry exposure. As banks move in to a new high powered world of financial operations and trading, with new risks, the need is felt for more sophisticated and versatile instruments for risk assessment, monitoring and controlling risk exposures. It is, therefore, time that banks managements equip themselves fully to grapple with the demands of creating tools and systems capable of assessing, monitoring and controlling risk exposures in a more scientific manner.Credit Risk, that is, default by the borrower to repay lent money, remains the most important risk to manage till date. The predominance of credit risk is even reflected in the composition of economic capital, which banks are required to keep a side for protection against various risks. According to one estimate, Credit Risk takes about 70% and 30%remaining is shared between the other two primary risks, namely Market risk (change in the market price and operational risk i.e., failure of internal controls, etc.). Quality borrowers (Tier-I borrowers) were able to access the capital market directly without going through the debt route. Hence, the credit route is now more open to lesser mortals (Tier-II borrowers).With margin levels going down, banks are unable to absorb the level of loan losses. There has been very little effort to develop a method where risks could be identified and measured. Most of the banks have developed internal rating systems for their borrowers, but there hasbeen very little study to compare such ratings with the final asset classification and also to fine-tune the rating system. Also risks peculiar to each industry are not identified and evaluated openly. Data collection is regular driven. Data on industry-wise, region-wise lending, industry-wise rehabilitated loan, can provide an insight into the future course to be adopted.Better and effective strategic credit risk management process is a better way to Manage portfolio credit risk. The process provides a framework to ensure consistency between strategy and implementation that reduces potential volatility in earnings and maximize shareholders wealth. Beyond and over riding the specifics of risk modeling issues, the challenge is moving towards improved credit risk management lies in addressing banks’readiness and openness to accept change to a more transparent system, to rapidly metamorphosing markets, to more effective and efficient ways of operating and to meet market requirements and increased answerability to stake holders.There is a need for Strategic approach to Credit Risk Management (CRM) in Indian Commercial Banks, particularly in view of;(1) Higher NPAs level in comparison with global benchmark(2) RBI’ s stipulation about dividend distribution by the banks(3) Revised NPAs level and CAR norms(4) New Basel Capital Accord (Basel –II) revolutionAccording to the study conducted by ICRA Limited, the gross NPAs as a proportion of total advances for Indian Banks was 9.40 percent for financial year 2003 and 10.60 percent for financial year 20021. The value of the gross NPAs as ratio for financial year 2003 for the global benchmark banks was as low as 2.26 percent. Net NPAs as a proportion of net advances of Indian banks was 4.33 percent for financial year 2003 and 5.39 percent for financial year 2002. As against this, the value of net NPAs ratio for financial year 2003 for the global benchmark banks was 0.37 percent. Further, it was found that, the total advances of the banking sector to the commercial and agricultural sectors stood at Rs.8,00,000 crore. Of this, Rs.75,000 crore, or 9.40 percent of the total advances is bad and doubtful debt. The size of the NPAs portfolio in the Indian banking industry is close to Rs.1,00,000 crore which is around 6 percent of India’ s GDP2.The RBI has recently announced that the banks should not pay dividends at more than 33.33 percent of their net profit. It has further provided that the banks having NPA levels less than 3 percent and having Capital Adequacy Reserve Ratio (CARR) of more than 11 percent for the last two years will only be eligible to declare dividends without the permission from RBI3. This step is for strengthening the balance sheet of all the banks in the country. The banks should provide sufficient provisions from their profits so as to bring down the net NPAs level to 3 percent of their advances.NPAs are the primary indicators of credit risk. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is another measure of credit risk. CAR is supposed to act as a buffer against credit loss, which isset at 9 percent under the RBI stipulation4. With a view to moving towards International best practices and to ensure greater transparency, it has been decided to adopt the ’ 90 days’ ‘ over due’ norm for identification of NPAs from the year ending March 31, 2004.The New Basel Capital Accord is scheduled to be implemented by the end of 2006. All the banking supervisors may have to join the Accord. Even the domestic banks in addition to internationally active banks may have to conform to the Accord principles in the coming decades. The RBI as the regulator of the Indian banking industry has shown keen interest in strengthening the system, and the individual banks have responded in good measure in orienting themselves towards global best practices.1.3 Credit Risk Management(CRM) dynamics:The world over, credit risk has proved to be the most critical of all risks faced by a banking institution. A study of bank failures in New England found that, of the 62 banks in existence before 1984, which failed from 1989 to 1992, in 58 cases it was observed that loans and advances were not being repaid in time 5 . This signifies the role of credit risk management and therefore it forms the basis of present research analysis.Researchers and risk management practitioners have constantly tried to improve on current techniques and in recent years, enormous strides have been made in the art and science of credit risk measurement and management6. Much of the progress in this field has resulted form the limitations of traditional approaches to credit risk management and with the current Bank for International Settlement’ (BIS) regulatory model. Even in banks which regularly fine-tune credit policies and streamline credit processes, it is a real challenge for credit risk managers to correctly identify pockets of risk concentration, quantify extent of risk carried, identify opportunities for diversification and balance the risk-return trade-off in their credit portfolio.The two distinct dimensions of credit risk management can readily be identified as preventive measures and curative measures. Preventive measures include risk assessment, risk measurement and risk pricing, early warning system to pick early signals of future defaults and better credit portfolio diversification. The curative measures, on the other hand, aim at minimizing post-sanction loan losses through such steps as securitization, derivative trading, risk sharing, legal enforcement etc. It is widely believed that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Therefore, the focus of the study is on preventive measures in tune with the norms prescribed by New Basel Capital Accord.The study also intends to throw some light on the two most significant developments impacting the fundamentals of credit risk management practices of banking industry – New Basel Capital Accord and Risk Based Supervision. Apart from highlighting the salient features of credit risk management prescriptions under New Basel Accord, attempts are made to codify the response of Indian banking professionals to various proposals under the accord. Similarly, RBI proposed Risk Based Supervision (RBS) is examined to capture its direction and implementation problems。
计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文:Schedule Risk Management INTRODUCTIONSchedule risks are both threats and opportunities to the success of a project. Threats tend to reduce the success of meeting the project goals and opportunities tend to increase the success. Risk management is the process of identifying, analyzing, qualifying and quantifying the risks, and developing a plan to deal with them. This is routinely done during baseline schedule development as well as during schedule updates. Implementation of riskmanagement starts with early planning in both budgetary cost estimating and preliminary master scheduling in order to determine budgets and schedules with a comfortable level of confidence in the completion date and final cost. While there are entire volumes addressing risk in construction projects, it is important to note that the issue of time-related risk has not been universally incorporated into planning. Assessing cost risk is more intuitive, and very often addressed through the use of heuristics, so it has become more of a standard of the industry than time-related risk management. Most estimators will automatically add a contingency toa cost estimate to cover the risk of performance based on the type of project and circumstances pertaining to the undertaking of the project. Estimators estimate this contingency using their own rules of thumb developed over years of estimating as well as estimate ingmanuals,such as Means’ Cost Data or Cost Works. However, when it comes todeveloping the critical path method (CPM) schedules, risk management is often overlooked or underestimated.The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of risk management and the assessment process as well as best practices for incorporation of risk management into CPM schedule development and maintenance. For more detailed information about schedule risk, the reader should refer to risk management books, particularly those that focus on project management. One of the best resources available is David Hulett’s new book, Practical ScheduleRisk Analysis.Any risk management program starts with a good and accurate CPM schedule, created through the use of best practices and checked for quality, reasonableness, and appropriateness of the network model. Without a well-designed and developed CPM baseline schedule, a risk management process will not be effective. The risk analysis depends upon accurate and consistent calculations of the network logic, the appropriateness of the sequencing and phasing, and a reasonable approach to estimating activity durations.Most CPM schedules are not adjusted for risk but rather are developed as if there were one right answer for the schedule’s numerical data. Generally, activity durations are established by calculation of the quantity of work represented by an activity divided by the production rate, or by sheer ‘‘gut feeling’’ of the project manager or crew leader. This production rate is normally established by the contractor’s historical records or an estimating system, such as Means’, that provides an accurate data base of average production rates. Once those durations are calculated, they are often used as deterministic values, which assumes that the durations are accurate and unlikely to change. This assumption ignores the fact that the schedule is attempting to predict how long it will take to complete an activity at some unknown time in the future,using an unknown crew composition, with variable experience, and workingin unknown conditions. Risk management recognizes the uncertainty in duration estimating and provides a system to brain storm other risks that may occur during the project. Probability distributions are the best way to model planned activity durations, as noted by Hulett ‘‘The best way to understand the activity durations that are included in the schedule is as probabilistic statements of possible durations rather than a deterministic statement about how long the future activity will take.’’DEFINITION OF RISK TERMSThe Project Management Institute (PMI) defines project risk in its Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) as ‘‘an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality. A risk may have one or m ore causes and, if it occurs, one or more impacts.’’ PMBOK adds ‘‘Risk conditions could include aspects of the project’s or organization’s environment that may contribute to project risk, such as poor project management practices, or dependency on external participants who cannot be controlled.’’Risk Management: A process designed to examine uncertainties occurring during project delivery and to implement actions dealing with those uncertainties in order to achieve project objectives The definition of risk management in PMBOK, 4th Edition, is: ‘‘systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk.’’Risk definition by AACEi Cost Engineering Terminology7 is: ‘‘the degree of dispersion or variability around the expected or ‘best’ val ue, which is estimated to exist for the economic variable in question, e.g., a quantitative measure of the upper and lower limits which are considered reasonable for the factor being estimated.’’Time Contingency: An amount of time added to the base estimated duration to allow for unknown impacts to the project schedule, or to achieve a certain level of confidence in the estimated duration.Probability: A measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an event.Risk register: A checklist of potential risks developed during the risk identification phase of risk management.Risk allocation: A determination of how to respond to risks, which can include shifting risk, avoiding risks, preventing or eliminating risks, and incorporating risks into the schedule.Deterministic: A calculated approach to estimating single activity duration using work quantity divided by estimated production rate.Probabilistic: The determination of risk likelihood and consequences to establish duration ranges or risk-adjusted durations that can be used in a schedule in recognition that there are no certainties in estimating future durations.Monte Carlo analysis: A probabilistic approach to determining confidence levels of completion dates for a project schedule by calculating durations asprobability distributions.Probability distribution: The spread of durations in a statistically significant population that is used for the range of durations in probabilistic scheduling approaches.Confidence level: A measure of the statistical reliability of the prediction of project completion.What-if scenario: A modeling of a risk for use in a CPM schedule in order to predict the ramifications of an identified risk.Qualitative analysis: Occurring on the project, as well as assessing the severity of that risk should it occur and prioritizing the resultant list of risks. Quantitative analysis: The assigning of a probability to the qualitative description of the risk, ranking the risks, and calculating the potential impact from both individual risks as well as the cumulative effect of all risks identified.Exculpatory clauses: Disclaimer verbiage that is designed to shift risk. TYPES OF RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTSEverything that has ever gone wrong on a construction project is a potential risk on the next project. Many project managers instinctively develop a lessons-learned list of historical risks and take steps to minimize their exposure to those risks in the future.Risks vary by industry and even by construction project type as well as by personnel involved with the project. A roadway or bridge project has adifferent group of risks than a facility or building, and the selected contractors may have different degrees of influence on the level of risks to performance. If an owner attempts to save money in preconstruction services by limiting the extent of field investigation or development of as-built data, there will be a higher risk of discovery of unknown problems. The experience and competence of the architects and engineers handling the design of the project, as well as their quality control indevelopment of working drawings, directly affect the construction effort and, consequently, the risk associated with the plans and specifications.Even if the owner has been proactive in preconstruction investigation, there is always a risk of unforeseen conditions. This can be a function of the type of soils encountered, the local municipality, and its culture and history of keeping good records of obsolete utilities. If the city in which the project is to be built has a history of requiring contractors to remove all abandoned underground lines, there is a much lower risk of underground conflicts.The selection of the project team can impact positively or negatively the probability of successful project completion. Design-bid-build projects that use procurement philosophies allowing all financially capable contractors to participate will likely experience a much higher level of risk to on-time performance than a procurement philosophy that requires qualification of proposed contractors to ensure that they have the appropriate experience and resources to construct the project. A single weak subcontractor on a projectwill increase risk of performance and require more management than may be anticipated. If this is not considered, everyone will be surprised when that subcontractor fails and has to have their work augmented or corrected. Problems related to the management and possible termination of a failing subcontractor usually has serious negative impacts on the project.The reputation of the construction manager (CM) as well as the corporate culture will affect project performance. If the CM defines success with minimum time extensions as the only benchmark, there will likely be more conflict and a higher need for dispute resolution efforts. In addition, the management abilities of the CM directly affect many project tasks, such as review of shop drawings and response to requests for information in order to resolve questions about the construction.Work by outside or third parties can carry significant risks of influence on the project’s success. For example, a light rail station to be built on top of a parking garage under construction by a different contractor will run an increased risk of completion on time. The project has no control over—and little ability to influence—the completion of the parking garage, which quickly becomes vital to completion of the light rail project.Most projects are affected by local weather conditions, which, when adverse, can significantly impede progress. Most specifications require the contractor to take into account the normal local weather conditions in his schedule planning, which includes normal adverse weather, but also allow fortime extensions when unusually adverse weather occurs. Best practices would require the contractor to research the local historical weather records in order to plan for three to five year average weather conditions. Different parts of the country and the world have a wide variance in weather conditions, so planning or failure to plan for the risk of local weather can significantly affect project success.Local political situations, especially in volatile political climates, may hamper all efforts to construct a project efficiently. Countries with unstable political or economical systems will have higher risks in successful project completion than those with more stable systems. Countries or regions subject to wars, terrorism, turmoil, or other typesof violence also run greater risks to successful project completion than others. If the locality has a policy of requiring deep investigation into environmental issues or stringent or complicated bureaucracy, projects built in that locality will have a higher risk of late permits and conflict during construction. Another large risk on any project is the experience and reputation of the project team for safe construction practices. Safety violations and accidents can shut down a job completely. Even minor safety failures can distract the project team and impede timely performance. If a contractor has a poor safety record, the risk of delays because of safety violations is increased and should be taken into account during schedule development.A large volume of change orders on a project will affect employee morale;there is nothing worse than asking a craftsman to rip out recently installed high-quality woodwork for a requested change. If the CM has a good change management program in place, including most importantly good planning, the risks of negative pressure from changes are lowered. Without the program, the risks may be significant enough to derail project completion. Most conversations about risk are related to negative risks that impair successful performance, but often there are opportunities that would be overlooked without good risk assessment. A renovation project that calls for a three-story masonry wall to be demolished to the foundation in order to install a beam and column system might be redesigned with a pin beam temporary support structure, allowing the upper two stories to remain in place, saving time and money, as well as removing some risk. The brainstorming about risks needs to include looking for opportunities that could positively impact the project time for completion.It seems obvious that failure to plan for the myriad of risks that often affect project performance will render the planning less accurate. Without risk management, every item that might appear on a risk register (a checklist of potential risks) is a surprise to the project team should it happen, diverting attention and emphasis from the project management and consuming valuable resources. Most disputes arise from risks that likely were not considered at the inception of the project and might have been eliminated or mitigated with good risk planning.Once a company develops a regular risk management culture, the risk register generates many of the same risks on project after project. However, a company’s ‘‘risk register’’ should not be a fixed template, used as is on all its projects. The list must be updated and customized for each project taking into consideration its own risks. These lessons learned, when incorporated into the project schedule through the risk managementprogram, are invaluable in helping to minimize threats that carry negative impacts and take advantage of opportunities that bring positive impacts to project comp.IMPORTANCE OF GOOD PLANNING FOR RISK MANAGEMENT The quality of the risk management plan will control the usefulness of the risk analysis. This quality is achieved through developing a good and encompassing master risk register in a brainstorming workshop with experienced attendees, and following that process with analysis and risk allocation. This is combined with a process of continuing risk monitoring during updates as well as continuous cycles of risk management. Participants in the workshop will often comment that they cannot take certain risks into account because they do not have control of the risks or they have no idea if that risk will actually happen. One of the typical issues is repeated cycles of shop drawings, where experience tells us that a complicated design may cause structural steel shop drawings to be rejected, requiring revision and resubmission. Some stakeholders feel that this isbeyond their ability to plan for and therefore, the schedule should ignore it and assume the risk will not happen. Accepting this assumption minimizes the risk identification and analysis process. This type of risk should be identified, and then during the qualitative analysis, it will be weeded out as a low priority or incorporated as a high priority. However, if the risk is just not included on the risk register, the opportunity to analyze it is lost.With a thorough and organized risk workshop, based on a good master risk register, and participation by the major stakeholders as well as the project management team, the output of the risk analysis will be very useful. The most likely risks will be identified and analyzed, and with the rest of the risk management steps, the schedule will evolve into a risk-adjusted schedule, capable of reasonable analysis and realistic completion predictions.RISK SHIFTING IN CONTRACTSContract language may have a significant impact on how much of the risk each party carries. Sometimes called exculpatory clauses, this language attempts to shift or apportion undetermined risk. Contracts are often used to control or assign risk to various parties, or just to assign it to a party other than the owner. Many owners, developers, and contractors prefer using standard contract forms, such as those specially developed by organizations such as the American Institute of Architecture (AIA), the Construction Management Association of America (CMAA), and theAssociated General Contractors (AGC) in the United States and FIDIC orNEC in Europe and the Middle East, because such contract forms were written and updated by professionals and are widely known and used. However, many others insist on writing their own contracts or making amendments to the standard forms so that they can change certain conditions, which may—and usually does—affect the risk ofthe contracting parties.One example of this risk shifting is the use of clauses stating that geotechnical reports and information are provided to bidders for information only, and the owner is not responsible for any usage or interpretation of the geotechnical information. This is an attempt to limit the owner’s exposure to delays because of differing site conditions.Another example is that of the typical ‘‘no damages for delay’’ language that sometimes shows up in contracts, which does not typically shift the time performance risk, but only the costs for the delay. This language attempts to move the risk of the costs of delays from the responsibility of the owner to the contractor, so that the sole remedy is a time extension.Construction manager and contractor insurances are means to handle the shifted risk of contracts and limit the liability of those parties. These types of insurance can provide some level of protection against the adverse consequences of unknown problems that might affect the completion of the project. Builder’s risk policies provide insurance that will replace materials and provide for damage repair that can be invoked fairly quickly in the eventof vandalism or property losses, allowing the project to resume production and minimize delayed completion risks.An astute owner realizes that the more that risk is shifted to the contractor, the higher the cost and, sometimes, the longer the performance time of the project will be. A fair risk allocation is essential for a successful, economical, and timely completed project. Unfair risk allocation results in risks being distributed among the construction team, creating disharmony and adversarial relationships among the very team members that are needed to resolve the problems at hand.The risk management plan is the place to identify all risks and determine how to deal with these risks. This provides much better protection through a fair and objective allocation of risk, producing a clear understanding of the risk objectives by the entire project team. In some contracts, owners may try to shift some risks to the contractor as part of what they perceive as negotiation. Contractor’s prof it is usually proportional to the risk taken by the contractor. It is important for any owner to understand that there is always a price for shifting the risk, whether declared or hidden. Perhaps in some instances if the owner knew the real cost of shifting certain risks, he would have preferred not to shift them.An example of the above is when buying a new car or home. A standard warranty comes usually with every new vehicle and covers manufacturer’s defects up to a certain time period (e.g.36 months) or mileage (e.g.36,000miles), whichever comes first. Of course, the salesperson will try to sell the buyer (owner) an ‘‘extended warranty’’policy that extends most of the original warranty terms in time and mileage and perhaps adds a few attractive items. A buyer who considers himself a good negotiator may manage to obtain this extended warranty policy at ‘‘no extra cost.’’ This is a myth! In most cases, the buyer would have received a price discount on the vehicle, roughly equivalent to the dealer’s cost on the extended warranty policy, in lieu of the policy itself.中文:计划风险管理介绍进度风险对于一个项目的成功既是威胁又是机遇。
项目风险管理分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文:Project Risk AnalysisChapter 1 Introduction1.1 About this compendiumThis course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics:• R isk identification• Risk structuring• Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model• Risk follows upWe will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation.1.2 DefinitionsAleatory uncertaintyVariation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty.Epistemic uncertaintyLack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. DependencyThe relation between the sequences of the activities in a project.Observable quantityA quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. ParameterWe use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probabilitystatement about an observable quantity, X, is that a parameter is a construct where the value of the parameter is the limiting value where we are not able to saturate our understanding about the observable quantity X whatsoever new information we could get hold of. Parameter estimateThe numeric value we assess to a parameter.ProbabilityA measure of uncertainty of an event.RiskRisk is defined as the answer to the three questions [14]: i) what can go wrong? ii) How likely is it? And if it goes wrong, iii) what are the consequences? To describe the risk is a scenarioRisk acceptanceA decision to accept a risk.Risk acceptance criterionA reference by which risk is assessed to be acceptable or unacceptable.ScheduleA plan which specifies the start and finalization point of times for the activities in a project.Stochastic dependencyTwo or more stochastic variables are (stochastically) dependent if the expectation of one stochastic variable depends on the value of one or more of the other stochastic variables. Stochastic variableA stochastic variable, or random quantity, is a quantity for which we do not know the value it will take. However, we could state statistical properties of the variable or make probability statement about the value of the quantity.1.3 DEFINITIONSUncertaintyLack of knowledge about the performance of a system, and observable quantities in particular.Chapter 2Risk ManagementGenerally, risk management is defined (IEC 60300-3-9) as a “systematic application ofmanagement policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating and controlling risk”. It will comprise (IEC definitions in parentheses):• Risk assessment, i.e.–Risk analysis (“Systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the r isk to individuals or populations, property or the environment”)–Risk evaluation (“Process in which judgments are made on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of risk analysis and taking into account factors such as socio-economic and environmental aspects”)• Risk reduction/control (Decision making, implementation and risk monitoring).There exists no common definition of risk, but for instance IEC 60300-3-9 defines risk as a “combination of the frequency, or probability, of occurrence and the consequence of a specified hazardous events”. Most definitions comprise the elements of probabilities and consequences. However, some as Klinke and Renn suggest a very wide definition, stating: “Risk refers to the possibility that human actions or events lead to consequences that affect aspects of what humans value”. So the total risk comprises the possibility of number (“all”)unwanted/hazardous events. It is part of the risk analysis to delimit which hazards to include. Further, risk usually refers to threats in the future, involving a (high) degree of uncertainty. In the following we will present the basic elements of risk management as it is proposed to be an integral part of project management.2.1 Project objectives and criteriaIn classical risk analysis of industrial systems the use of so-called risk acceptance criteria has played a central role in the last two or tree decades. Basically use of risk acceptance criteria means that some severe consequences are defined, e.g. accident with fatalities. Then we try to set an upper limit for the probability of these consequences that could be accepted, i.e. we could not accept higher probabilities in any situations. Further these probabilities could only be accepted if risk reduction is not possible, or the cost of risk reduction is very high.In recent years it has been a discussion in the risk analysis society whether it is fruitful or not to use risk acceptance criteria according to the principles above. It is argued that very often risk acceptance criteria are set arbitrary, and these do not necessarily support the overall best solutions. Therefore, it could be more fruitful to use some kind of risk evaluation criteria, rather than strict acceptance criteria. In project risk management we could establish acceptance criteria related to two types of events:• Events with severe consequences related to health, environment and safety.• Events with severe consequences related to project costs, project quality, project duration, oreven termination of the project. In this course we will have main focus on the project costs and the duration of the project. Note that both project cost and project duration are stochastic variables and not events. Thus it is not possible to establish acceptance criteria to project cost or duration directly. Basically, there are three types of numeric values we could introducein relation to such stochastic variables describing the project:1. Target. The target expresses our ambitions in the project. The target shall be something we are striving at, and it should be possible to reach the target. It is possible to introduce (internal) bonuses, or other rewards in order to reach the targets in a project.2. Expectation. The expectations are the value the stochastic variables will achieve in the long run, or our expectation about the outcome. The expectation is less ambitious than the target. The expectation will in a realistic way account for hazards, and threats and conditions which often contribute to the fact that the targets are not met.3. Commitment. The commitments are values related to the stochastic variables which are regulated in agreements and contracts. For example it could be stated in the contract that a new bridge shall be completed within a given date. If we are not able to fulfill the commitments, this will usually result in economical consequences, for example penalties for defaults, or in the worst case canceling of the contract.2.2 Risk identificationA scenario is a description of a imagined sequence or chain of events, e.g. we have a water leakage, and we are not able to stop this leakage with ordinary tightening medium due to the possible environmental aspects which is not clarified at the moment. Further the green movement is also likely to enter the scene in this case. A hazard is typically related to energies, poisonous media etc, and if they are released this will result in an accident or a severe event. A threat is a wider term than hazard, and we include also aspects as “wrong” method applied, “lack of competence and experience”. The term threat is also very often used in connection with security problems, e.g. sabotage, terrorism, and vandalism.2.3 Structuring and modeling of riskIn Section 2.2 we have identified methods to identify events and threats. We now want to relate these events and threats to the explicit models we have for project costs and project duration.2.3.1 Model for project execution time/schedule modelingWhen analyzing the execution time for a project we will have a project plan and typicallya Gantt diagram as a starting point. The Gantt diagram is transformed into a so-called flow network where the connections between the activities are explicitly described. Such a flow network also comprises description of duration of the activities in terms of probability statements. The duration of each activity is stochasticVariables, which we denote Ti for activity in a flow network we might also have uncertain activities which will be carried out only under special conditions. These conditions could be described in terms of events, and we need to describe the probability of occurrence of such events. Thus, there is a set of quantities, i.e. time variables and events in the model. The objective is now to link the undesired events and threats discussed in Section 2.2 to these time variables and events. Time variables are described by a probability distribution function. Such a distribution function comprises parameters that characterize the time variable. Often a parametric probability distribution is described by the three quantities L (low), M (most likely) and H high. If an undesired event occur, it is likely that the values of L, M and H will be higher than in case this event does not occur. A way to include the result from the risk identification process is then to express the different values of L, M and H depending on whether the critical event occurs or not. If we in addition are able to assess the probability of occurrence of the critical event, the knowledge about this critical event has been completely included into the risk model. Based on such an explicit modeling of the critical event, we could also easily update the model in case of new information about the critical event is obtained, for example new information could be available at a later stage in the process and changes of the plan could still be possible in light of the new information.2.3.2 Cost modelingThe cost model is usually based on the cost breakdown structure, and the cost elements will again be functions of labor cost, overtime cost, purchase price, hour cost of renting equipment, material cost, amount of material etc. The probabilistic modeling of cost is usually easier than for modeling project execution time. The principle is just to add a lot of cost terms, where each cost term is the product of the unit price and the number of units. We introduce price and volume as stochastic variables to describe the unit price and the number of units. The price and volume variables should also be linked to the undesired events and threats we have identified in Section 2.2. Often it is necessary to link the cost model to the schedule model. For example in case of delays it might be necessary to put more effort into the project to catch up with the problems, and these efforts could be very costly. Also, if the project is delayed we may need to pay extra cost to sub-contractors that have to postpone their support into the project.2.3.3 Uncertainty in schedule and cost modelingAs indicated above we will establish probabilistic models to describe the duration and cost of a project. The result of such a probabilistic modeling is that we treat the duration and cost as stochastic variables. Since duration and costs are stochastic variables, this means that there is uncertainty regarding the values they will take in the real project we are evaluating. Sometimes we split this uncertainty into three different categories, i) Aleatory uncertainty (variability due to e.g. weather conditions, labor conflicts, breakdown of machines etc.), ii) para meter or epistemic uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about “true” parameter values, and iii) model uncertainty due to lack of detailed, or wrong modeling. Under such thinking, the aleatory uncertainty could not be reduced; it is believed to be the result of the variability in the world which we cannot control. Uncertainty in the parameters is, however, believed to be reducible by collecting more information. Also uncertainty in the models is believed to be reducible by more detailed modeling, and decomposition of the various elements that go into the model. It is appealing to have a mental model where the uncertainty could be split into one part which we might not reduce (variability), and one part which we might reduce by thorough analysis and more investigation (increased knowledge). If we are able to demonstrate that the part of the uncertainty related to lack of knowledge and understanding has been reduced to a sufficient degree, we could then claim high confidence in the analysis. In some situation the owner or the authorities put forward requirements. Which could be interpreted as confidence regarding the quality of the analysis? It is though not always clear what is meant by such a confidence level. As an example, let E(C) be the expected cost of ap roject. A confidence statement could now be formulated as “The probability that the actual project cost is within an interval E(C) ± 10% should at least be 70%”. It is, however, not straight forward to document such a confidence level in a real analysis. T he “Successive process (trinnvisprosessen)” [4] is an attempt to demonstrate how to reduce the “uncertainty” in the result to a certain level of confidence.We also mention that Even [12] has recently questioned such an approach where there exist model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, and emphasizes that we in the analysis should focus on the observable quantities which will become evident for us if the project is executed, e.g. the costs, and that uncertainty in these quantities represent the lack of knowledge about which values they will take in the future. This discussion is not pursuit any more in this presentation.2.4 Risk elements for follow up: Risk and opportunity registerAs risk elements and threats are identified in Section 2.2 these have to be controlled as far as possible. It is not sufficient to identify these conditions and model them in the schedule and cost models, we also have to mitigate the risk elements and threats. In order to ensure a systematic follow up of risk elements and threats it is recommended to establish a so-called threat log. The terms ‟Risk Register…and ‟Risk & Opportunity Register…(R&OR) is sometimes used rather than the term ‟threat log.… A R&OR is best managed by a database solution, for example an MS-Access Database. Each row in the database represents one risk element or threat. The fields in such a database could vary, but the following fields seems reasonable: • ID. An identifier is required in order to keep track of the threat in relation to the quantitative risk models, to follow up actions ET.• Description. A description of the threat is necessary in order to understand the content of the problem. It could be necessary to state the immediate consequences (e.g. occupational accident), but also consequences in terms of the main objectives of the project, e.g. time and costs.• Likelihood or probability. A judgment regarding how probable it is that the threat or the risk condition will be released in terms of e.g. undesired or critical events.• Impact. If possible, give a direct impact on cost and schedule if the event occurs, either by an expected impact, or by L, M and H values.• References to cost and schedule. In order to update the schedule and cost models it is convenient to give an explicit reference from the R&OR into the schedule and cost models. • Manageability. Here it is descried how the threat could be influenced, either by implementing measures to eliminate the threat prior to it reveals it self, or measures in orderto reduce the consequences in case of the threat will materialize.• Alert information. It is important to be aware of information that could indicate the development of the threat before it eventually will materialize. If such information is available we could implement relevant measures if necessary. For example it could be possible to take ground samples at a certain cost, but utilizing the information from such samples could enable us to choose appropriate methods for tunnel penetration.• Measures. List of measures that could be implemented to reduce the risk.• Deadline and responsible. Identification of who is responsible for implementing and follow up of the measure or threat, and any deadlines.• Status. Both with respect to the threat and any measure it is valuable to specify the development, i.e. did the treat reveal it self into undesired events with unwanted consequences, did the measure play any positive effect etc.2.5 Correction and controlAs the project develops the R&OR is the primary control tool for risk follow up. By following the status of the various threats, risk elements and measures we could monitor the risk in the project. This information should of course be linked to the time and cost plans. If a given threat does not reveal in terms of undesired events, the time and cost estimates could be lowered and this gain could be utilized in other part of the project, or in other projects. In the opposite situation it is necessary to increase the time and cost estimates, and we need to consider new measures, and maybe spend some of the reserves to catch up in case of an expected delay. During the life cycle of a project it will occur new threats and risk elements which we did not foresee in the initial risk identification process. Such threats must continuously be entered into the R&OR, and measures need to be considered.一、介绍(一)关于本纲要本课程纲要过程中研究的是“风险也是一种项目”。
项目风险管理外文翻译
外文翻译As one of the important subjects of project management originated the First World War, and now it has been becoming more and more systematic and professional. In China the systematic project risk management framework was developed by the end of last century, but the practical application of project risk management still needs further improvement. With above background, this thesis focused on the medium or large real estate project, research project character, project management, typical Chinese construction project process, risk management, and project risk management. The first chapter briefed the current international and domestic study status of the subject, thesis purpose, and thesis scope, which are risk and its countermeasures research for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. The second chapter briefed the concept and character of real estate project, risk of project, and project risk management, which is the theoretical foundation of further risk management study for the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. Chapter3,4 and 5 are the project risk management practice on the implementation phase of medium or large real estate project. Chapter 3 is for project engineering risk management, which introduced the concept, purpode, and principle of project engineering at the beginning, and then analyzed the engineering objective, including schedule, cost, and quality, at last it identified and analyzed the project engineering risks and provided design change procedure and design company selection procedure as the risk response. Chapter 4 detailed the concept, principle, objective and key roles of project procurement, identified and assessed the project procurement risk, and also provided contractor selection procedure, vendor selection procedure, examples of procurement plans to response and monitor project risk. Chapter 5 firstly introduced the construction concept, character, process and project construction objectives, including quality objective, schedule objective, and safety objective, and then identified and assessed construction quality risk, schedule risk, cost risk and safety risk, The postscript of this thesis briefed the dynamic project risk management concept, restriction and limitation of this thesis, and opportunities for further research. Totally there are 14 appendixes attached after the thesis. These appendixes could be used as guidance and reference of risk management for real estate project. They are provided to be very useful in term of risk management for real estate project implementation phases.Project risk management as a procedure of optimism and decision, in which information will come out gradually in the multistage construction. The key to the risk management is how to select the risk response plan. Directed by the system theory and combined the theory of option pricing and project risk management, this paper adopts criterion method to analyze the management and activity in the stage of engineering project implement on the base of comparison to relative documents. This paper emphatically argues the choice of response plans under the condition of risks according to the established analysis frame. These forecasts are hypotheses abstract form the similar project performed before, whether they are actual or not will hugely affect the success of project The implement stage means project period from the location to product whose target is transform the plan to real and mark the aims. The implement stage occupies the most period of project, has huge work, consume the most resource. What is worth to mind is that the implement stage isprocess not only to form the real proprirty but also product information, for example, the knowledge of field status and the capability of contractor can only be obtained form implement. So in order to mark the target, the manager must test the hypotheses and use the new information assess the status of influence element, choose the best response plan according to the condition. This paper has value in instructing the project investor/manager in how to establish a risk management configuration and making decision under risk condition in the implement stage of construction project.This thesis begins with the knowledge system of project management, analyses the whole course of risk management and sets forth the method and program of project risk identification, risk appraisement and risk monitoring in project minutely. Finally, It shows a risk case of building project focal point for the investment decision of early stage with qualitative and quantitative analysis. Chapter 1 Discuss the important concept, method and knowledge system of project risk management, such as the definition of project, the knowledge system of project management PMBOKX the intension of risk, the content of risk management and so on ,carry out the risk analysis of building project emphatically. Chapter 2 Mainly introduce the tool and technology of project risk identification, such as checking table, the rules of systems analysis(WBS), the method of SWOT technology. Thinking of the demerit for every tool, hence author emphasize that we should appraise the gained information resource synthetically. Chapter 3 Explain how to go on the estimation and assessment of project risk, put forward the tool and technology of project risk analysis (as AHP, probability and sensitivity analysis ). When analyzing project risk quantitatively, first we should have definite warranty, do not surmise risk without foundation; Secondly, distinguish confirmed project from unconfirmed project in quantitative analysis. When using two important tools of quantitative risk analysis—probability and sensitivity analysis, one side is to estimate the probability of risk variable exactly; the other side is to judge and analyze the guidelines of probability analysis truly, as square margin, expected figure, disperse modulus. Through quantifying risk, it can strengthen our sense of risk management. Chapter 4 Elaborate the basic method of monitoring project risk. In order to carry into execution monitoring project risk, it is essential to establish perfect replying risk plan. The main steps is: lessening risk, take precautions against risk (as project method, instructing method, program method), conveying risk selling, inviting public bidding, the contract of absolving obligation, insurance and guarantee), avoidance, leave behind and measure in support. Chapter 5 A risk management example. First, analyze the various possible existent risk factors of this project systematically. Secondly, study its sensitivity factor thorough quantifying assessment risk for the project, as well as establishing and putting in practice a plan in order to control the negative influence in minimum level. The building has total 130500 square in architectural area, superior geographical location and tremendously potential value, its overall investment is 4.26 hundreds million. This chapter first studies the market from place environment all around traffic and market requirement, then analyzes systematically financing risk and organic risk of joint venture. On the basis of foregoing analysis, it establishes some parameter of risk quantifying analysis, calculates its selling revenue running expense and cash flow form, uses sensitivity analysis to gain best sensitivity factor. As the uncertain essence of risk, it is extremely important to analyze probability factor of the project. So we confirm the probability form of every variable, then calculatepresent value of each possible event according to different constitutes of risk variable; and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative probability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision. Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk management to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basis International project contracting is rather a complex project in the cooperation of international economy and technology, and the implementing of the projects will be influenced by political, economy and social situations Firstly, this paper systemically analyzed the market situation of the international project contracting, and concretely analyzed the market structure in Asia, America, Africa and Europe. It concluded the trend of the development of the international contracting market; projects are becoming large-scale and complex and the contracting pattern is diversified, and the management of the international project contracting is standardized. Secondly, this paper analyzed the development status and characteristic of the international project contracting in our country. Although the internationalization tendency of our country’s international project contracting firm is preferable, there is large gap in the whole strength when compared with firms from the developed countries, and also there are limitations in the distributing of the projects in different regions and industries. Thirdly, this paper summarized the technique of international project contracting risk identification, estimate and appraise in our country. Put forward to finance and non-finance risk treating means, and apply the energy release theory to international project contracting risk management, and research the dominating risk in the bid phase and construction and build the energy release model of each phrase. In the cases of Kun River Hydroelectric Station Project in Vietnam and Aromatic Plant Shali Irrigation Project in Nepal, this paper put forward to the technique of the international project contracting risk identification, estimation, appraise and reply in dealing with the project risk. Finally, in the risk estimation and risk appraise, this paper paid attention to evaluate the losing caused by the risk exactly; in the risk reply ,give attention to two aspects of cost and return, look after the economic and logical risk reply measure, in order to make the project risk least, the operating of companies most efficiently and the return highest外文翻译项目风险管理作为项目管理的重要内容之一,起源于第一次世界大战之后。
建筑施工项目管理外文翻译参考文献
建筑施工项目管理外文翻译参考文献1. 引言项目管理在建筑施工行业中起着关键作用。
随着全球建筑市场的不断扩大和建筑项目的日益复杂化,了解和应用国际经验和最佳实践对于成功管理建筑施工项目至关重要。
本文献综述旨在介绍几篇关于建筑施工项目管理的外文参考文献。
2. 文献1:《建筑施工项目管理的关键成功因素》本文探讨了建筑施工项目管理中的关键成功因素。
通过案例研究和统计分析,作者总结出了一些影响建筑项目成功的关键因素,如团队合作、沟通、计划、资源管理等。
文章指出了这些因素对项目进度、质量和成本的重要性,并提供了一些管理建议。
3. 文献2:《建筑施工项目管理中的风险管理》风险管理在建筑施工项目中具有重要意义。
本文研究了建筑项目中的风险特点和风险管理方法。
通过对一系列案例的分析,作者总结出了常见的风险类型和应对策略。
文章还提供了一些实用的工具和技术,如风险评估矩阵和风险管理计划,以帮助项目团队识别和应对潜在的风险。
4. 文献3:《建筑施工项目管理中的供应链管理》供应链管理在建筑施工项目中扮演着重要角色。
本文研究了建筑项目中的供应链管理问题,并提出了一些解决方案。
作者通过对供应链中各个环节的分析,探讨了如何优化材料采购、仓储和运输等关键环节,以提高项目的效率和效益。
文章还介绍了一些供应链管理工具和技术,如供应商评估和供应链协调机制。
5. 文献4:《建筑施工项目管理中的可持续发展》可持续发展在建筑施工项目中越来越受到关注。
本文探讨了建筑项目中的可持续发展问题和实践。
作者介绍了一些可持续发展的原则和指南,并提供了一些案例研究和实施经验。
文章强调了可持续发展对于减少环境影响、提高社会效益和经济发展的重要性,并呼吁项目管理者在项目中积极应用可持续发展的理念和方法。
6. 结论本文献综述介绍了几篇关于建筑施工项目管理的外文参考文献。
这些文献涵盖了建筑项目管理中的关键成功因素、风险管理、供应链管理和可持续发展等重要主题。
通过学习和借鉴这些国际经验和最佳实践,我们可以更好地应对建筑施工项目管理中的挑战,提高项目的成功率和效益。
2019年项目风险管理参考文献
2019年项目风险管理参考文献以下是2019年的一些项目风险管理方面的参考文献:1. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) - Project Management Institute (2017)这本书是项目管理领域的经典参考书,其中包含了项目风险管理的标准和最佳实践。
2. Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights - Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward (2017)这本书提供了项目风险管理的全面指南,包括风险识别、评估、规划和控制等方面的技术和方法。
3. Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (PRAM Guide) - Defense Acquisition University (2019)这是一份由美国国防采购大学发布的项目风险分析和管理指南,适用于国防和军事项目。
4. Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success - David Hillson (2018)这本书介绍了一些有效的项目风险管理的关键要素和成功的方法,包括风险识别、评估、规划和控制等方面的实践。
5. Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers - Dale Cooper et al. (2019)这本书介绍了项目风险管理的基本方法,包括风险识别、评估、规划和控制等方面的实用技术。
这些参考文献可以帮助您了解2019年项目风险管理的最新发展和最佳实践。
请注意,某些文献可能需要购买或订阅才能获得。
企业风险管理外文文献翻译译文5000字
文献出处:Bedard J C, Hoitash R, et al. The development of the enterprise risk management theory [J]. Contemporary Accounting Research, 2014, 30(4): 64-95.原文The development of the enterprise risk management theoryBedard J C, Hoitash RAbstractEnterprise risk management as an important field of risk management disciplines, in more than 50 years of development process of the implementation of dispersing from multiple areas of research to the integration of comprehensive risk management framework evolution, the theory of risk management and internal audit and control theory are two major theoretical sources of risk management theory has experienced from the traditional risk management, financial volatility to the development of the enterprise risk management, risk management and internal audit and control theory went through the internal accounting control and internal control integrated framework to the evolution of enterprise risk management, the development of the theory of the above two points to the direction of the enterprise risk management, finally realizes the integration development, enterprise risk management theory to become an important part of enterprise management is indispensable.Keywords: enterprise risk management, internal audit the internal control1 The first theory source, evolution of the theory of risk management"Risk management" as a kind of operation and management idea, has a long history: thousands of years ago in the west have "don't put all eggs in one basket" the proverb, the ancient Chinese famous "product valley hunger" allusions and "yicang (" system," boat was "organization have a prototype of the modern risk managementthought, and points under escort ship transportation, yuen, is effective way to spread risk, transfer risk .In the modern sense of risk management thought appeared in the first half of the 20th century, such as fayol's safe production ideas, Marshall's "risk sharing management" point of view, etc.;But risk management as a discipline system development is started in the middle of the 20th century: in 1950, gallagher in the risk management: a new stage of cost control in the paper, puts forward the concept of risk management; Johnso (1952) mentioned the problems how to deal with risks and uncertainties in farm management, which involves early enterprise (farms) of risk management problem.The emergence of risk management as a discipline real Mehr and Hedges of the enterprise risk management (1963) and C.A.Williams and Richard m. Heins "risk management and insurance" (1964) published marked. Williams and Heins thinks, "risk management is based on the risk identification, measurement and control to the smallest cost risk caused by the loss to the lowest level of management methods", risk management is not just a technology, a method, a kind of management process, and is a new and scientific management.The development of the theory of risk management.1.1The first stage: the 70 s and 1950 sTheoretical tendency mainly is the pure risk prevention and management of enterprise (adverse risk);Take the main strategy of enterprise risk management is risk avoidance and risk transfer, insurance becomes the main risk management tools. Fire events of general motors and the United States steel industry the workers went on strike to enterprise's normal operation caused serious impact and losses, become an important opportunity to promote the development of enterprise risk management theory. This phase the first important area of risk management theory, is the risk management object definition and research. Since the 20th century, scholars have been the object of risk management divided into two major categories of pure risk and speculative risk, and the pure risks as the object of risk management and the target (Denenberg, 1966; Gahin, 1967).In fact, the risk can be divided into pure risk and speculative risk is a kind of method based on the responsibility, is targeted at loss, isnot aimed at risk, so it can be divided into pure risk and speculative risk, but not as good as it can be divided into pure loss and speculative loss, because it can reflect the true respect of the risk manager more loss problem.Is the second important areas, to the enterprise decision-making and of behavior, and insurance in response to the important role of enterprise risk and universality of the study. Greene (1955) orientation is insurance buyers of risk management. A paper published in 1955, the management review "to the risk of a kind of management method", think of insurance as the most important means of enterprise risk management should be attention by the enterprise management and the shareholders, think insurance is a business spending the most valuable part of all kinds of costs. Denenberg etc. (1966) also emphasizes the insurance at this stage the important role of risk management, points out the important responsibility of the risk manager is to determine the appropriate insurance policy for the enterprise and insurance products, that will be the risk manager's name changed to "insurance and risk managers". Snider (1956), McCahill, Jr. (1971) stressed that risk management in the enterprise organization structure not only has a certain status, report to top management work, and want to maintain good communication and coordination with the finance department.A third important area is, the risk management theory into the analysis framework of mainstream economics and management.On the one hand, by the wind management theory combined with the traditional enterprise theory, the risk management of the decision-making process and the integration of enterprise's overall ing the capital asset pricing model, the decision rule of enterprise in the optimal retention ratio, cumulative franchise policy selection and choice of reserves, etc., makes the risk management theory into the financial market;And the use of marginal analysis tool to determine the optimal strategy of risk management, then further forming marks in risk management theory, and become an important area of finance (Cummins, 1976)., on the other hand, William g. Scott complex type combined with risk management organization system, through to the enterprise basic system and branch offices neat, will be the overall goal and the risk of the enterprisemanager daily target organic unification, then to the appraisal of the branch to contribution to the enterprise overall risk identification and measurement, and consider the relationship between them and the relationship between the dynamic characteristics, so as to provide theoretical sources for the development of risk management (Close,1974).1.2The second stage, the late 1970 s to the end of the 20th centuryRisk management object is mainly the business and financial results of volatility, risk management tools on the basis of insurance also achieved great development, new derivatives and alternative risk transfer (ART) play an important role.In the 1970 s, the collapse of the bretton woods system of exchange rate volatility significantly increased, oil price rising sharply, the production cost of enterprise is difficult to control;After entering the 80 s, high inflation and interest rate volatility and number of money and credit crisis makes the enterprise the management face greater uncertainty.Tool of a large number of applications in convenient enterprise risk management at the same time, also because of its characteristics of leveraged to amplify the damage due to improper use strategy of so the use of derivatives and the management strategy becomes very important.Therefore, the enterprise risk management and derivatives trading, hedge strategy should pay close attention to the competitor (Froot etc., 1994).And (2001) study found that such as Cummins, although the measurement of the risk and the liquidity as well as the decision-making has a positive connection of the underwriter, but for those who use derivatives to hedge risk, the risk index was has negative relationship with the width and depth of the hedge.1.3The third stage, since the 21st centuryAfter entering the 21st century, with the speeding up of the global economic integration, companies, increasing the risk for the influence of various risks and potential consequences will magnify, together with the complexity of the financial derivatives trading and frequency are increased rapidly, to the continuous operation of the enterprise put forward the serious challenge, the enterprise must break through thetraditional pattern of risk management, from a more comprehensive, integrated view of risk analysis and management, as a result, the comprehensive risk management stage of the development of risk management.The emergence of comprehensive risk management and application of risk management for the enterprise provides new methods and tools, its application field is very broad, from enterprises, non-profit organizations to the government are gradually introduced the analysis framework.2 Second theory sourceInternal audit and the development of control theory in the process of the evolution of enterprise risk management theory, theory of the second source is the evolution and development of internal audit and control theory.From the literature in internal audit and control of the internal accounting control, internal control integrated framework, enterprise risk management process of the overall framework, including the COSO has played a leading role, in particular, it issued two symbolic file "enterprise internal control, the overall framework" and "enterprise risk management - integrated framework".The separation of corporate ownership and control is the ultimate cause of internal audit and the emergence of a control theory, and the expansion of enterprise scale and the structure of the branch in shortage problem caused by the lack of management and control is to encourage enterprises to strengthen internal audit and control of direct motivation.2.1Internal accounting controlInternal accounting control is the first stage in the development of internal control theory.Grady (1957) pointed out that the internal accounting control is a comprehensive coordination of the organization plan and business process system, used to prevent unexpected or wrong operation to bring the asset losses, examination management decision used in accuracy and objectivity of accounting data, promote operational efficiency and encourage compliance with established policies, etc.In practice, accounting and audit personnel played a dominant role in the internalaccounting control, audit became the earliest forms of internal control, therefore, the internal control is in deepening and audit activities based on the theory of audit.But with the increase of the enterprise management activity, pure audit already cannot satisfy the needs of the enterprises, the internal control arises at the historic moment, the audit has become a part of the internal control (Haun, 1955).The internal audit activity is one of the important conditions, implement control and management of enterprises is a key component part of the internal control, is the eye of the "supervision" top management.For the internal control evaluation, the audit is the most important tools and stakeholders;At the same time, the audit data for the evaluation of internal control provides conditions, through a review of the audit data, can be a preliminary judgment of enterprise internal control system and in need of improvement, which provide ideas for the perfection of the internal control (Garbade, 1944; Mautz etc., 1966; Smith, 1972).2.2 The internal control framework as a wholeIn 1992, the COSO issued "enterprise internal control, the overall framework, system construction of the enterprise internal control system for the first time. The COSO framework of internal control, is more based on the perspective of independent accountants and auditors, puts forward the concept of enterprise internal control, think the overall internal control framework is mainly composed of control environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication, supervision, the five elements, thus the concept of internal control to completely break through the limitation of the audit, the category of management control comprehensive development to the enterprise.COCO, Canada in 1995, the report put forward higher request to the external auditor for the enterprise internal control to join the external factors. International institute of internal auditors in 1996 published "concept and responsibility:" report, think that should be pay more attention to the contribution and role of internal audit in the organization. The risk management of card of German report, ham pell, as well as comprehensive criteria guide turn bull report is the most famous and arguably Britainthree milestones in the internal control research, especially in 1992, DE Burleigh report on internal control, the relationship between the quality of financial reporting and corporate governance as the prerequisite, attaches great importance to the significance of independent audit committee on the internal control.2.3 The enterprise risk management framework as a wholeIn 2004, the COSO committee report in 2004, on the basis of combining the requirements of the sarbanes - oakes act, formally issued "enterprise risk management - integrated framework". The analysis framework will be within the scope of the internal control in enterprise risk management, formed a broader meaning of the internal risk management framework. Therefore, the development of the theory of internal audit and control the final point to the enterprise comprehensive risk management. Reviews the development of internal audit and control, it can be seen that the theory of evolution has experienced the process of "plane, three-dimensional, three-dimensional" : in the stage of internal accounting control, control environment, control activities, and accounting system in the plane of the three elements constitute a control system;In the overall framework of internal control, the control environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication, monitoring, five elements, evolved into a three-dimensional control system;In the overall enterprise risk management framework stage, the internal environment, goal setting, item identification, risk assessment, risk response, control activities, information and communication, monitoring, eight elements, makes the enterprise risk management, a solid control system3The development of the enterprise risk management theoryAfter entering the 21st century, the academic study of enterprise risk management, mainly focus on the following: the connotation of enterprise risk management and the target, achieve the goal of enterprise risk management mechanism, the implementation of enterprise risk management motivation as well asthe factors of the enterprise risk management.3.1 the connotation of enterprise risk managementKent d. Miller (1992) the source of the uncertainty problem of enterprise internationalization operation and performance are analyzed, and puts forward the thinking of integrated risk management, for the first time in academia the concept of integrated risk management is studied in detail. Later, scholars gradually with the definition of enterprise risk management refers to those using the method of comprehensive, integrated processing enterprise faces the risk of problems. Skipper (1994), Lisa Meulbroek (2002), enterprise risk management involves not only the profit loss without possibility, also focus on the possibility of benefits and risks. The COSO committee (2004) published an authoritative definition of enterprise risk management.3.2 Enterprise risk management goalsFor the goal of enterprise risk management, the academia mainly has a single teleology and multiple teleology two factions. The single core view of skopos theory is that the goal of enterprise risk management is to maximize the value of the shareholders of a company. Neal Enriquez (2001) pointed out that the main purpose of the enterprise risk management is in order to save a lot of trivial claims costs, facilitate enterprise of risk control, raise the value of the company. Multiple teleology of argument is that the purpose of the enterprise risk management is to achieve multiple goals in the development of enterprises. James Lam (2003), detailing the purpose of overall corporate risk management, including lower earnings volatility, to maximize the value of the shareholders of a company, and to promote professional and financial security, etc.; The COSO committee (2004) proposed the strategic target and business objectives, reporting, and compliance goals four goals.3.3The mechanism of the enterprise risk management, improve enterprise valueThe mechanism of enterprise risk management, improve enterprise value ismainly done through three ways: (1) the optimization of enterprise capital allocation. Enterprise risk management framework of capital structure management, can improve the return on equity and improve the corporate governance structure, which affects the value of the enterprise (Peter Tufano, 1996).(2) improve enterprise strategic decision level. Enterprise risk management will be integrated into the overall strategy of the enterprise risk management, covering the entire process and the development of the enterprise business, can make enterprises seize the opportunity and enhance competition ability, thus improve the performance of the company. Enterprise risk management can reduce the cost of enterprise was in financial trouble, reduce the probability of bankruptcy, reduce the influence of traditional liabilities to the company value (NeilDoherty, 2005).(3) to strengthen the management of incentive, in turn, improve the level of performance. If it can be through effective risk management measures to control the fluctuation of stock price, makes the sensitivity of management compensation to company performance is positive, so that it can solve the agency problem in corporate governance, so as to make the management efficiency and to enhance the value of the company (Aggarwal, 1999).3.4 The enterprise risk management: an empirical study of relationship between the value of the companyEnterprise risk management on earth has much impact on the promotion of enterprise value, simple qualitative analysis is difficult to get the exact conclusion. To do this through a variety of academic empirical method to research: (1) the overall level of study from the enterprise, the enterprise risk management of the company, its universality of the increase of the value of the company has a large (Cyree etc., 2004; Hoyt, etc., 2008);(2) from the specific business level, using tobin Q as substitution variables of enterprise value, found that use derivatives to hedge risk, the enterprise value of a positive growth trend (Allayannis etc., 2001; Bartram, etc., 2004; Nain, 2004; Kim, 2004);Karen berger (2007), ABB company as an example to analyze the risk communication to establish credibility and maintain the significance of the value of the company.4Summary and outlookCan clearly see through the above analysis, the theory of risk management and internal audit and control theory of the cross and integrated, makes the enterprise risk management in a more integrated and comprehensive perspective and method to deal with the risks of enterprise developing, to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the enterprise. But in 2007 the outbreak of the subprime crisis, to the enterprise risk management to improve and perfect puts forward a new proposition: how to implement effective risk management to respondA new challenge? Have the following questions need to be further studied and discussed:4.1. The COSO - application problems of enterprise risk management framework.At present the framework is the core of enterprise risk management standards, but more from the perspective of process management is the framework to deal with the risk of enterprise, to real-time risk management is not enough attention, especially not fully consider the enterprise's solvency problems, in fact, enterprise bankruptcy is often insufficient solvency direct consequences. Therefore, the enterprise is the lack of risk management: in the analysis of enterprise risk management framework, how to pay attention to the solvency of enterprises and set up effective feasible evaluation index.4.2. The use of financial derivatives and structured finance instruments.Subprime mortgage crisis, the AIG, citigroup and other large financial institutions are far as companies used as risk reserve capital will not be able to meet the needs of the huge amount of structured products trading, high leverage multiples bring unexpected losses. Therefore, how to correctly treat and deal with problem of structured finance instruments, is the enterprise risk management cannot be ignored.4.3. The problem of corporate social responsibility and reputation.As from the simple to the requirement of enterprise profit extends to socialresponsibility and reputation, brand, and other fields, enterprise risk management must also be followed by development and extension, to include external stakeholders requirements in enterprise risk management framework, in a more broad perspective to the comprehensive risk management. Therefore, how an enterprise bear the social responsibility through sustainable risk management, realize the harmony of economic interests and social interests, is the future of enterprise risk management an important problem to be reckoned with.译文企业风险管理理论的发展贝达德;霍塔什摘要企业风险管理作为风险管理学科的一个重要领域,在50 多年的发展过程中实现了从多个领域的分散研究向全面风险管理一体化框架的演进,其中风险管理理论和内部审计与控制理论是两大理论来源,风险管理理论经历了从传统风险管理、财务波动性风险管理向企业风险管理的发展,而内部审计与控制理论也经历了内部会计控制、内部控制整体框架向企业风险管理的演进,上述两大理论的发展都指向了企业风险管理的方向,企业风险管理理论最终实现了集成发展,成为企业管理不可或缺的重要组成部分。
项目成本控制中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文资料外文翻译文献原文:Project Budget Monitor and Control.With the marketing competitiveness growing, it is more and more critical in budget control of each project. This paper discusses that in the construction phase, how can a project manager be successful in budget control. There are many methods discussed in this paper, it reveals that to be successful, the project manager must concern all this methods.1. INTRODUCTIONThe survey shows that most projects encounter cost over-runs (Williams Ackermann, Eden, 2002,pl92). According to Wright (1997)'s research, a good rule of thumb is to add a minimum of 50% to the first estimate of the budget (Gardiner and Stewart, 1998, p251). It indicates that project is very complex and full of challenge. Many unexpected issues will lead the project cost over-runs. Therefore, many technologies and methods are developed for successful monitoring and control to lead the project to success. In this article, we will discuss in the construction phase, how can a project manager to be successful budget control.2. THE CONCEPT AND THE PURPOSE OF PROJECT CONTROL AND MONITORErel and Raz (2000) state that the project control cycle consists of measuring the status of the project, comparing to the plan, analysis of the deviations, and implementing any appropriate corrective actions. When a project reach the construction phase, monitor and control is critical to deliverthe project success. Project monitoring exists to establish the need to take corrective action, whilst there is still time to take action. Through monitoring the activities, the project team can analyze the deviations and decide what to do and actually do it. The purpose of monitor and control is to support the implementation of corrective actions, ensure projects stay on target or get project back on target once it has gone off target。
项目风险管理外文文献
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT : FUTURE DEVELOPMENTSDr David HillsonManager of Consultancy, PMP Services Limited7 Amersham Hill, High Wycombe, Bucks HP13 6NS, UK ABSTRACTProject risk management has been recognised for some time as a formal discipline in its own right, and there is growing consensus on the elements which comprise best practice. However the project risk management field has not fully matured and there are a number of areas requiring further development. This paper presents the author’s perceptions on the directions in which project risk management might develop in the short to medium term, comprising five key areas. These are : organisational bench-marking using maturity model concepts; integration of risk management with overall project management and corporate culture; increased depth of analysis and breadth of application; inclusion of behavioural aspects in the risk process; and development of a body of evidence to justify and support use of risk management. INTRODUCTIONRisk management within projects has developed in recent years into an accepted discipline, with its own language, techniques and tools. Most textbooks in project management now include sections on risk management, and there is a growing library of reference texts specifically devoted to the subject in its own right. The value of a proactive formal structured approach to managing uncertainty has been widely recognised, and many organisations are seeking to introduce risk processes in order to gain the promised benefits.It appears that project risk management is a mature discipline, yet it is still developing. Many risk practitioners would agree that risk management has not yet peaked, and that there is some way to go before its full potential as a management support tool is realised. A number of initiatives are under way to extend the boundaries of the subject, and there is a danger that risk management could dissipate and lose coherence if some sense of overall direction is not maintained. This paper presents five areas where the author perceives a need for active development, and which are proposed as an agenda for change in the short to medium term, covering the next three to five years.THE CURRENT SITUATIONBefore detailing areas for possible development, it is helpful to survey the current position of project risk management. This draws on the author’s experience as Chairman of the Risk Specific Interest Group (SIG) for the UK Association for Project Management (APM), his involvement with the Risk SIG of the US Project Management Institute (PMI), his position as a risk practitioner in the UK and Europe, and his view of current developments in the field as Editor of this journal.Use of formal risk management techniques to manage uncertainty in projects is widespread across many industries, and there are few sectors where it is completely absent. In many areas its use is mandatory or required by client organisations, including defence, construction, IT, offshore and nuclear industries. Other sectors are recognising the potential of risk management as a management support tool and are beginning to implement risk processes within their own projects. In the UK, various government departments are implementing risk management on projects, notably the Ministry of Defence (MoD)1, and departments with IT projects which use PRINCE2 or PRINCE2 3 guidelines developed by the CCTA.Risk processes have been applied to all stages of the project lifecycle, from conception, feasibility and design, through development into implementation, operations and disposal. The contribution which risk management can make at each lifecycle stage is different, but is nevertheless recognised as important.Despite this apparent widespread take up of project risk management across business at large, the extent to which risk processes are actually applied is somewhat variable. Many organisations adopt a minimalist approach, doing only what is necessary to meet mandatory requirements, or going through the motions of a risk process with no commitment to use the results to influence current or future strategy.A significant aspect of the project risk management field is the extent of current infrastructure support available. There is a growing academic base for the subject, and risk management is included in a variety of undergraduate courses. In addition, several MSc degrees in risk management exist, and the body of research in the topic is growing. This has led to a broad risk literature, including both textbooks and journals.A number of standards and guidelines have also been published which include aspects of project risk management to varying degrees4-12, although there is no internationally accepted risk standard at the time of writing. The discipline is supported by several professional bodies, including the UK Institute of Risk Management13 (whose remit is broader than just the project risk field), and project management bodies such as the UK APM14 and the US PMI15 (both with dedicated SIGs for project risk management). Software vendors have also provided a range of tools to support the risk process, and a growing number of consultancies offer project risk management support to clients.One important feature is the consensus on current best practice within project risk management. The APM Risk SIG is recognised within the UK as representing the centre of excellence for the subject within the UK, and internationally the leading position of the UK in project risk management is also widely accepted. A recent publication from the APM (the “Project Risk Analysis & Management (PRAM) Guide”16) has captured the elements of current best practice as perceived by the Risk SIG, and this has been expanded and expounded elsewhere17. This covers high level principles in the form of a prototype standard for risk management, and presents a generic process. The PRAM Guide also deals with organisational issues (roles and responsibilities), psychological aspects (attitudes and behaviour), benefits and shortfalls, techniques, and implementation issues, presenting a comprehensive compilation of current practice. Other best practice documents also exist, although not with such broad coverage18,19.AREAS FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTThe current situation in project risk management outlined above represents a position where there is broad consensus on the fundamentals, with a mature and agreed process, supported by a comprehensive infrastructure. The core elements of project risk management are in place, and many organisations are reaping the benefits of implementing risk processes within their projects and wider business, despite the variable depth of application. There are however a number of areas where the discipline needs to develop in order to build on the foundation which currently exists. It is this author’s belief that development of the following five areas would greatly enhance the effectiveness of project risk management :• organisational bench-marking using maturity model concepts• integration of risk management with overall project management and corporate culture• increased depth of analysis and breadth of application• inclusion of behavioural aspects in the risk process• development of a body of evidence to justify and support use of risk management Each of these areas is discussed in turn below, outlining how project risk management might benefit from their inclusion.ORGANISATIONAL BENCHMARKINGAn increasing number of organisations wish to reap the benefits of proactive management of uncertainty in their projects by developing or improving in-house project risk management processes. It is however important for the organisation to be able to determine whether its risk processes are adequate, using agreed measures to compare its management of risk with best practice or against its competitors. As with any change programme, benchmarks and maturity models can play an important part in the process by defining a structured route to improvement.The Risk Maturity Model (RMM)20,21 was developed as a benchmark for organisational risk capability, describing four increasing levels, with recognisable stages along the way against which organisations can benchmark themselves. The various levels can be summarised as follows :• The Naïve risk organisation (RMM Level 1) is unaware of the need for management of risk, and has no structured approach to dealing with uncertainty.Management processes are repetitive and reactive, with little or no attempt to learn from the past or to prepare for future threats or uncertainties.• At RMM Level 2, the Novice risk organisation has begun to experiment with risk management, usually through a small number of nominated individuals, but has no formal or structured generic processes in place. Although aware of the potential benefits of managing risk, the Novice organisation has not effectively implemented risk processes and is not gaining the full benefits.• The level to which most organisations aspire when setting targets for management of risk is captured in RMM Level 3, the Normalised risk organisation. At this level, management of risk is built into routine business processes and riskmanagement is implemented on most or all projects. Generic risk processes are formalised and widespread, and the benefits are understood at all levels of the organisation, although they may not be fully achieved in all cases.• Many organisations would probably be happy to remain at Level 3, but the RMM defines a further level of maturity in risk processes, termed the Natural risk organisation (Level 4). Here the organisation has a risk-aware culture, with a proactive approach to risk management in all aspects of the business. Risk information is actively used to improve business processes and gain competitive advantage. Risk processes are used to manage opportunities as well as potential negative impacts.Each RMM level is further defined in terms of four attributes, namely culture, process, experience and application. These allow an organisation to assess its current risk processes against agreed criteria, set realistic targets for improvement, and measure progress towards enhanced risk capability.Since its original publication20, the RMM has been used by several major organisations to benchmark their risk processes, and there has been considerable interest in it as a means of assisting organisations to introduce effective project risk management. Other professional bodies are expressing interest in development of benchmarks for risk management based on the principles of maturity models22,23, and this seems likely to become an important area for future development.INTEGRATION OF RISK MANAGEMENTProject risk management is often perceived as a specialist activity undertaken by experts using dedicated tools and techniques. In order to allow project teams and the overall organisation to gain the full benefits from implementing the risk process, it is important that risk management should become fully integrated into both the management of projects and into the organisational culture. Without such integration, there is a danger that the results of risk management may not be used appropriately (or at all), and that project and business strategy may not take proper account of any risk assessment.At the project level, integration of risk management is required at three points.• The first and arguably most important is a cultural issue. The project culture must recognise the existence of uncertainty as an inherent part of undertaking projects.The nature of projects is to introduce change in order to deliver business benefits.Any endeavour involving change necessarily faces risk, as the future state to be delivered by the project differs from the status quo, and the route between the two is bound to be uncertain. Indeed there may be a direct relationship between the degree of risk taken during a project and the value of the benefits which it can deliver to the business (the “risk-reward” ratio). It is therefore important for the project culture to accept uncertainty and to take account of risk at every stage. The existence of risk and the need to manage it proactively within projects should not be a surprise.• Secondly, risk management must become fully integrated into the processes of project management. Techniques for project definition, planning, resourcing, estimating, team-building, motivation, cost control, progress monitoring,reporting, change management and close-out should all take explicit account of risk management. It is often the case that risk management is seen as an optional additional activity, to be fitted into the project process if possible. The future of effective risk management depends on developing project processes which naturally include dealing with risk.• Thirdly, risk tools must integrate seamlessly with tools used to support project processes. Too often differing data formats result in a discontinuity between the two, leading to difficulty in using risk outputs directly within project tools. It should not be necessary to use a specialist toolset for risk management, with import/export routines required to translate risk data into project management tools. At the practical level this would go a long way towards improving the acceptability and usefulness of risk management to project teams.In addition to these tactical-level integration issues, there is a broader need to develop strategic risk-based thinking within organisational culture. The denial of risk at senior management levels is a common experience for many project managers, and this can dilute or negate much of the value of implementing risk management in projects, if decision-makers at a higher level do not properly take account of risk. This author contends that there is a need for a cultural revolution similar to the Total Quality Management (TQM) phenomenon, if the required degree of organisational culture change is to be achieved. As with quality, risk management must be seen as an integral part of doing business, and must become “built-in not bolt-on”, a natural feature of all project and business processes, rather than being conducted as an optional additional activity.Such a development might be termed Total Risk Management (TRM), requiring a change in attitudes to “think risk”, accepting the existence of uncertainty in all human endeavours, adopting a proactive approach to its management, using a structured process to deal with risk (for example identify, assess, plan, manage), with individuals taking responsibility for identifying and managing risks within their own areas of influence. Clearly the implications of a TRM movement could be far-reaching, and further work is required in this area to define and promulgate the principles and practice of TRM, drawing on the previous experiences of TQM practitioners.INCREASED DEPTH AND BREADTHThere is general consensus about the risk management process as it is currently applied within projects, covering the techniques available for the various stages and the way in which risk data is used. Further development is however required to improve the effectiveness of risk techniques, both in their degree of operation and functionality, and in the scope of the situations where they are applied. These two dimensions of improvement are termed depth of analysis and breadth of application. The current level of risk analysis is often shallow, largely driven by the capabilities of the available tools and techniques. Qualitative assessments concentrate on probabilities and impacts, with descriptions of various parameters to allow risks to be understood in sufficient detail that they can be managed effectively. Quantitative analysis focuses on project time and cost, with a few techniques (such as Monte Carlo simulation or decision trees) being used almost exclusively. There are a number ofways in which this situation could be improved, leading to an increased depth of analysis :• Development of better tools and techniques, with improved functionality, better attention to the user interface, and addressing issues of integration with other parts of the project toolset.• Use of advanced information technology capabilities to enable effective knowledge management and learning from experience. For example it may prove possible to utilise existing or imminent developments in artificial intelligence, expert systems or knowledge-based systems to permit new types of analysis of risk data, exposing hitherto unavailable information from the existing data set (see for example references 24 and 25).• Development of existing techniques from other disciplines for application within the risk arena. Risk analysis for projects could be undertaken via methods currently used within such diverse areas as system dynamics, safety and hazard analysis, integrated logistic support (ILS), financial trading etc. Tailoring of such methods for risk analysis may be a cost-effective means of developing new approaches without the need for significant new work.The scope of project risk management as currently practised is fairly limited, tending to concentrate on risks with potential impact on project timescales and cost targets. While time and cost within projects are undeniably important, there are a number of other areas of interest which should be covered by the risk process. The breadth of application could be enhanced in the following ways :• Risk impacts should be considered using other measures than project time and cost, and should include all elements of project objectives such as performance, quality, compliance, environmental or regulatory etc. The inclusion of “soft”objectives such as human factors issues might also be incorporated, as it is often the people aspects which are most important in determining project success or failure. In addition, the impact of risks should be assessed against the business benefits which the project is intended to deliver.• The scope of risk processes should be expanded beyond projects into both programme risk management (addressing threats to portfolios of projects, considering inter-project issues) and business risk assessment (taking account of business drivers). While there are existing initiatives in both of these areas26,27, there is value in moving out from project risk assessment into these areas in a bottom-up manner, to ensure consistency and coherence.BEHAVIOURAL ASPECTSThere is general agreement on the importance of human behaviour in determining project performance28. This however is not usually translated into any formal mechanism for addressing human factors in project processes, including risk management. Future developments of project risk management must take more account of these issues, both in generating input data for the risk process, and in interpreting outputs.Considerable work has been done on the area of heuristics29, to identify the unconscious rules used when making judgements under conditions of uncertainty. There is however less insight into risk attitudes and their effect on the validity of the risk process. If risk management is to retain any credibility, this aspect must be addressed and made a routine part of the risk process. A reliable means of measuring risk attitudes needs to be developed, which can be administered routinely as part of a risk assessment in order to identify potential bias among participants. Accepted norms for risk attitudes could be defined, allowing individuals to be assessed and placed on a spectrum of risk attitude, perhaps ranging from risk-averse through risk-neutral to risk-tolerant and risk-seeking. Once potential systematic bias has been identified it can then be countered, leading to more reliable results and safe conclusions. The impact of risk attitude on perception of uncertainty should be explored to allow the effects to be eliminated.A further result of the inclusion of a formal assessment of behavioural characteristics in the risk process would be the ability to build risk-balanced teams. This would permit intelligent inclusion of people with a range of risk attitudes in order to meet the varying demands of a project environment. For example, it is clearly important for a project team to include people who are comfortable with taking risks, since projects are inherently concerned with uncertainty. It is however also important that these people are recognised and that their risk-taking tendency should be balanced by others who are more conservative and safety-conscious, in order to ensure that risks are only taken where appropriate.Work is in progress in this area30,31, but it is important that this should be fully integrated into mainstream project risk management, rather than remaining a specialist interest of psychologists and behavioural scientists. The standard risk process must take full account of all aspects of human behaviour if it is to command any respect and credibility.SUPPORTING EVIDENCEA number of studies have been undertaken to identify the benefits that can be expected by those implementing a structured approach to risk management32. These include both “hard” and “soft” issues.“Hard” measurable benefits include :• Better informed and achievable project plans, schedules and budgets• Increased likelihood of project meeting targets• Proper allocation of risk through the contract• Better allocation of contingency to reflect risk• Ability to avoid taking on unsound projects• Recording metrics to improve future projects• Objective comparison of risk exposure of alternatives• Identification of best risk owner“Soft” intangible benefits from the risk process include :• Improved communication• Development of a common understanding of project objectives• Enhancement of team spirit• Focused management attention on genuine threats• Facilitates appropriate risk-taking• Demonstrates professional approach to customersThe widespread use of project risk management suggests that people are implicitly convinced that it must deliver benefits. It is however difficult to prove unambiguously that benefits are being achieved. There is therefore a genuine need for a body of evidence to demonstrate the expected benefits of the risk process. Problems currently arise from the fact that existing evidence is either anecdotal (instead of providing hard measurable data) and confidential (accessible data is required, including both good news and bad). Also projects are unique (data requires normalising), and different between industries (evidence should be both generic and specific).In the absence of a coherent body of irrefutable evidence, the undoubted benefits that can accrue from effective management of risk must currently be taken on trust. Overcoming this will require generation of a body of evidence to support the use of formal project risk management, providing evidence that benefits can be expected and achieved, and convincing the sceptical or inexperienced that they should use project risk management.The intended audience of such a body of evidence would fall into several groups, each of which might seek different evidence, depending on their perspective on project success. Possible groups include the client/sponsor, project manager, project team and end user. For each group, the body of evidence should first define a “successful project” from their perspective, then consider whether/how risk management might promote “success” in these terms, then present evidence demonstrating the effect of risk management on the chosen parameters.CONCLUSIONThe short history of project risk management has been a success story to date, with widespread application across many industries, and development of a core best practice with a strong supporting infrastructure. Although project risk management has matured into a recognised discipline, it has not yet reached its peak and could still develop further.This paper has outlined several areas where the author believes that progress is required. In summary, adoption of the proposed agenda for development of project risk management will result in the following :• An accepted framework within which each organisation understands its current risk management capability and which defines a structured path for progression towards enhanced maturity of risk processes (via organisational benchmarking). • A set of risk management tools and techniques which are fully integrated with project and business processes, with the existence of uncertainty being recognised and accepted at all levels (via integration of risk management).• Improved analysis of the effects of risk on project and business performance, addressing its impact on issues wider than project time and cost (via increased depth of analysis and breadth of application).• Proper account being taken of human factors in the risk process, using assessment of risk attitudes to counter systematic bias and build risk-balanced teams (via behavioural aspects).• Agreement on the benefits that can be expected from implementation of a formal approach to project risk management, based on an objective and accessible body of evidence which justifies those benefits (via supporting evidence).It is argued that attention to these areas will ensure that project risk management continues to develop beyond the current situation. Project risk management must not remain static if it is to fulfil its potential as a significant contributor to project and business success. The areas outlined in this paper are therefore proposed as an agenda for development of project risk management in the short to medium term, producing an indispensable and effective management tool for the new millennium.REFERENCES1. UK MoD Risk Guidelines comprise the following :MOD(PE) - DPP(PM) (October 1992) Statement by CDP & CSA on RiskManagement in Defence Procurement (Ref. D/DPP(PM)/2/1/12)MOD(PE) - DPP(PM) (January 1992) Risk Management in DefenceProcurement (Ref. D/DPP(PM)/2/1/12)MOD(PE) - DPP(PM) (October 1992) Risk Identification Prompt List forDefence Procurement (Ref. D/DPP(PM)/2/1/12)MOD(PE) - DPP(PM) (June 1993) Risk Questionnaires for DefenceProcurement (Ref. D/DPP(PM)/2/1/12)Defence Committee Fifth Report (June 1988) The Procurement of MajorDefence Equipment (HMSO)2. CCTA,“PRINCE Project Evaluation”, HMSO, London, 1994, ISBN 0-11-330597-4.3. CCTA, “PRINCE2 : Project Management for Business”, HMSO, London,1996, ISBN 0-11-330685-7.4. British Standard BS6079 : 1996 “Guide to project management”, BritishStandards Institute, ISBN 0-580-25594-8, 19965. British Standard BS8444 : Part 3 : 1996 (IEC 300-3-9 : 1995) “RiskManagement : Part 3 – Guide to risk analysis of technological systems”,British Standards Institute, ISBN 0-580-26110-7, 19966. Norsk Standard NS 5814 “Krav til risikoanalyser”, NorgesStandardiseringsforbund (NSF), 1991.7. Australian/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 4360:1995 “Risk management”,Standards Australia/Standards New Zealand, ISBN 0-7337-0147-7, 19958. National Standard of Canada CAN/CSA-Q850-97 “Risk management :Guideline for decision-makers”, Canadian Standards Association, ISSN 0317-5669, 19979. “Guidelines on risk issues”, The Engineering Council, London, ISBN 0-9516611-7-5, 199510. HM Treasury “Risk Guidance Note”, HMSO, London, June 1994.11. HM Treasury Central Unit on Procurement – CUP Guidance Number 41“Managing risk and contingency for works projects”, HMSO, London, 1993 12. Godfrey P.S. “Control of risk – A guide to the systematic management of riskfrom construction”, CIRIA, London, ISBN 0-86017-441-7, 199613. Institute of Risk Management, Lloyd’s Avenue House, 6 Lloyd’s Avenue,London EC3N 3AX, UK, tel +44(0)171.709.980814. Association for Project Management, 150 West Wycombe Road, HighWycombe, Bucks HP12 3AE, UK, tel +44(0)1494.44009015. Project Management Institute, 130 South State Road, Upper Darby, PA 19082,USA, tel +001.610.734.333016. Simon P.W., Hillson D.A. & Newland K.E. (eds.) “Project Risk Analysis &Management Guide”, APM Group, High Wycombe, Bucks UK, ISBN 0-9531590-0-0, 199717. Chapman C.B. & Ward S.C. “Project risk management : processes, techniquesand insights”, John Wiley, Chichester, Sussex UK, ISBN 0-471-95804-2,199718. “A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge”, ProjectManagement Institute, Upper Darby USA, ISBN 1-880410-12-5, 199619. “Continuous Risk Management Guidebook”, Software Engineering Institute,Carnegie Mellon University, USA, 199620. Hillson D.A. (1997) “Towards a Risk Maturity Model”, Int J Project &Business Risk Mgt, 1 (1), 35-4521. “The Risk Maturity Model was a concept of, and was originally developed by,HVR Consulting Services Limited in 1997. All rights in the Risk MaturityModel belong to HVR Consulting Services Limited.”22. “Project Management Capability Maturity Model” project, PMI StandardsCommittee, Project Management Institute, 130 South State Road, UpperDarby, PA 19082, USA. Details from Marge Combe,be@.23. 11th Software Engineering Process Group Conference : SEPG99, Atlanta, 8-11March 1999 (themes include risk capability maturity models)24. Stader J. (1997) “An intelligent system for bid management”, Int J Project &Business Risk Mgt, 1 (3), 299-31425. Brander J. & Dawe M. (1997) “Use of constraint reasoning to integrate riskanalysis with project planning”, Int J Project & Business Risk Mgt, 1 (4),417-43226. CCTA, “Management of Programme Risk”, HMSO, London, ISBN 0-11-330672-5, 199527. “Financial Reporting of Risk – Proposals for a statement of business risk”,The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales, 199828. Oldfield A. & Ocock M. (1997) “Managing project risks : the relevance ofhuman factors”, Int J Project & Business Risk Mgt, 1 (2), 99-10929. Kahneman D., Slovic P. & Tversky A. (eds.) “Judgement under uncertainty :Heuristics and biases”, CUP, Cambridge, 198230. Research by M Greenwood (personal communication, 1997), BurroughsHouse Associates, Middlezoy, Somerset, UK.。
建设项目风险管理外文文献
eCivil Engineering Faculty, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Saulėtekio al. 11, LT 2040 Vilnius, Lithuania
Shahid IQBALa, Rafiq M. CHOUDHRYb, Klaus HOLSCHEMACHERc, Ahsan ALId, Jolanta TAMOŠAITIENĖe
a, dFaculty of Materials Science and Technology, Technical University, Freiberg, Germany bCollege of Engineering, King Faisal University, Al-Hafuf, Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
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外文文献及翻译---ERP项目实施成功因素和风险管理
ERP项目实施成功因素和风险管理参考国外的一些文献资料,一个成功的ERP项目,往往要花费数年时间,数千万美元得以完成。
再回头看国内,随着ERP怀疑论的抬头,价格战的兴起,ERP作为一种软件供应商的产品,却有走下神坛趋势。
就连ERP界的首领SAP也推出了Business One产品,价格低于十万。
不过,即便ERP软件能做到免费,或如IBM推崇的按需收费的境界,从整个企业实施的角度,考虑到人员、培训、维护、业务重组、二次开发、三次、n次开发,其费用应该也在数百万乃至千万人民币的规模。
这对于国内企业而言,已是不小的数目了。
但是,还是有不少企业怀着美丽的梦想,踏上ERP实施的艰辛之旅。
其中又有不少项目以失败告终。
而对于那些最后的幸存者,是否就可以还戟入仓,饮酒高歌呢?事实上,企业在成功实施ERP项目后,将面对较实施前更大的风险。
在未来的五到十年中,是否有一个扎实的ERP风险管理机制将决定了企业是否能在最初的ERP投资中真正获益。
1998年Thomas H. Davenport在哈佛商务评论发表了名为《将企业放入企业系统》的文章(Putting the ent ERP rise into the ent ERP rise system)。
该文系统地提出了企业系统,或称ERP系统给企业运作带来积极及消极的引响。
同时也直接提出了未来企业必须面对的一个风险:将整个企业放入企业系统中的风险。
按照美国项目管理协会对风险的定义,“风险”是指对项目有利或不利的不确定因素。
项目是“为完成某一独特的产品或服务所做的一次性努力”,项目的“独特性”决定了项目不可能是以与以前完全相同的方式、由与以前完全相同的人来完成的,同时,项目所要创造的产品或服务,以及项目可能涉及的范围、时间及成本都不可能在项目开始时完全确定,因此,在项目进行过程中也相应会出现大量的不确定性,即项目风险。
本文以下所提到的“风险”是指对项目“不利”的不确定因素。
外文翻译--BOT项目风险管理
本科毕业论文(设计)外文翻译原文:Risk Management in BOT ProjectsRisk management in BOT projects is studied, following the risk management framework, i.e. risk identification, risk classification, risk analysis, risk attitude and risk response (or risk allocation).1.Risk identification in BOT projectsThe risks of BOT projects can be identified in the following categories (Baker, 1986; cited in Nadeem, 1998): political risks; construction completion risks; operating risks; finance risks and legal risks.2.Risk classification in BOT projectsThere have been several types of risk classification. The following are some examples of them: Construction phase: completion delay, cost overrun, force majeure, political risk, infrastructure risk (referring to other facilities in direct competition with the BOT project in question). Operational phase: raw material supply, market, performance/technical, operation/maintenance, foreign exchange, other contingencies (Tiong, 1990b). Development phase: technology risk, credit risk, bid risk. Construction phase: completion risk, cost overrun risk, performance risk, political risk. Operating phase: performance risk, cost overrun risk, liability risk, equity resale risk, offtake risk (Beidleman et al., 1990): Global risks:–Political: government, technology.–Legal: framework, type of agreement.–Commercial: market, input, currency.– Environment: impact, ecological. Construction, design,Elemental risks:–Technical: physical conditions, training.–Financial: form of technology.–Operational: operation, maintenance, ownership, return, currency.– Revenue: demand, financing, evaluation, development (toll/tariff, Woodward et al., 1992).There are some other classifications, some of which are: static or dynamic;fundamental or particular; government source or private source; speculative or pure; financial or non-financial; and measurable or immeasurable (Charoenpornpatiana, 1998).These classifications facilitate all the following steps of the risk management framework.3.Risk analysis in BOT projectsThe reasons of risk analysis in BOT projects are summarized by Walker and Smith (1995) as follows:A rigorous risk analysis is necessary before a project is embarked upon in order to establish its financial and technical feasibility. It can help to screen out financially unsound projects and get minds working together early enough to overcome foreseen technical difficulties. An increased understanding of the project risks leads to the formulation of more realistic plans in terms of cost estimates and programmes. Knowing the magnitude of the possible impact that may be caused by the contingent factors, the parties can seek for better allocation of the risks through the agreement of suitable contract clauses, procurement of insurance or other risk response measures. Apart from these, a more positive and rational risk-taking attitude will result from a carefully prepared risk analysis as the risk-takers know where they stand.There are several, or many, tools and techniques, which are applicable to risk analysis in BOT projects. The application is dependent on the contents and contexts of projects.4.Risk attitude in BOT projectsThe government is moving away from taking on project risks (ASIAMONEY, 1996).Government see BOT schemes as a method … with al l the technical and financial risks being borne by the private promoter … In a traditional method of contracting, risk-sharing may be allowed and the contractor may be able to negotiate with the client as far as claims for cost overrun is concerned. Under the BOT method, in which the contractor is normally also the developer, this is no longer possible … It is very important for promoters to demonstrate to the government that they are able totake all the risks that the government is apprehensive about (Tiong, 1995a) These descriptions are particularly pointing out the government's attitude that it is expecting the private sectors to take as many risks as possible so that it be free from them.Tiong and Alum (1997a) analyzed the requirements in BOT projects from the viewpoint of governments. The topics in these studies are, proposal evaluation criteria, the financial and contractual elements in final negotiation, requirement in request for proposal (RFP) (Tiong, 1995a), financial commitment (Tiong and Alum, 1997b), and importance of equity in the financial package (Tiong, 1995b). Particularly in his one study (Tiong, 1995a), he testified a hypothesis:[…] the ability to be awarded the concession in a BOT tender is strongly related to the ability of the project promoter to retain and reallocate risks and offer guarantees against risks and uncertainties.From an analysis of the study, he concluded:There is a positive agreement in the views of the promoter and government respondents with regard to the hypothesis.One thing governments should recognize is the additional cost of risk transfer.The government provides funds for public sector projects at cost and without charges for the project risks. The private sector prices risks and charges more for projects with highest risk (Saunders, 1998).Joshua and Gerber (1992) pointed out the potential problem that the public have to bear a higher toll price caused by unreasonable risk transfer in a privatized tollway. It is called value for money (VFM) paradox, which may occur in PFI projects in trying to achieve VFM through the transference of risks to private consortia (Owen and Merna, 1997).On the other hand, what is a contractor's view is surveyed in the UK, and Walker and Smith (1995) summarized the reports as follows: “Major contractors in the UK would have to achieve higher levels of return, a quick pay-back or achieve other spin-off benefits such as development gains or business for other companies within their organization”, according to the report in 1989. “The 1993 report suggested that amarket for private investment could be created by the transfer of a network of roads to tolled status within the public sector, the creation of a number of companies owning significant shares in the network and the subsequent privatization of those companies”. This report indicates that a market for private investment could not be created if the road networks were not transferred to particular independent bodies:Contractors stated that they would only be prepared to take the perceived increased risk in privatized projects if the government takes a positive stance on the subject rather than playing with the issue on a piecemeal basis The 1989 survey revealed … that the private sector was expected to take the whole burden of risk, and this made many of them wary about their involvement.How ab out bankers in the UK? The 1989 report “gave the consensus view that the banks did not adopt a proactive role leaving the contractors to be the prime movers. One of the reasons cited for this rather passive approach is the long gestation period of these pr ojects … Indeed, bankers believed that their risk position was far worse than that facing contractors.’ It is also reported that banks would not make loans to finance public sector projects without risk capital also being available (Saunders, 1998).5.Risk response and risk allocation in BOT projectsThe PFI guidelines in the UK recognize that the minimization of risk and the cost of accepting it is generally achieved by allocating risk to those best placed to accept it (Saunders, 1998).In cases of developing countries, some government guarantees are generally required for funding. McCarthy and Tiong (1991) described the common risks and securities considering the proper riskThis section discusses the risk analysis from the standpoints of major project participants, i.e. host government, funders.Host government:The government's principal responsibility is to achieve VFM or cost efficiency (CE) by implementing a project. In this regard, the best alternative for infrastructure arrangement must be selected. However, VFM and CE of a project contain uncertainty and risk, because they are values of the project in the future.Therefore, evaluation of VFM and CE should be conducted in terms of risk analysis, too.Generally, VFM includes not only money terms, but also non-monetary terms, such as social welfare and time saving in transportation. If all of these non-monetary terms are convertible into monetary terms, a decision-maker can analyze risk by the money term as a single criterion. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis are applicable in this case. On the other hand, if it is not the case, MCDM, which can incorporate plural criteria in a systematic way, is applicable to the analysis.Selection of the most cost-efficient concessionaire is also an important responsibility of government. Concessionaire selection under risk should be considered. In this regard, Hatush and Skitmore (1997) presented a potential use of probabilistic risk analysis to bid evaluation and pre-qualification of concessionaires. In addition, in order to recognize the cost-efficiency in a concessionaire's bid, government needs to know how risk is anticipated and involved in the bid. For example, let us suppose Concessionaire A offered a higher bid price (or higher tariff rate, longer concession period) because he anticipates risk sufficiently and as a result included the risk premium in the bid price. Concessionaire B, in turn, offered a lower price simply because he does not analyze risk sufficiently. In such a case, awarding the concession to Concessionaire B may cause a disaster. Because BOT projects contain much more risk than traditional ones, governments must understand how risk is analyzed and anticipated by concessionaires so as to avoid the disaster as shown in the example.Another important point is risk transfer. In BOT projects, governments expect private companies to assume as much risk as possible. However, risk transfer is always accompanied by risk premium as an additional cost. By analyzing risk in terms of likelihood, severity, and risk premium, a government must consider the best risk transfer. Likelihood and severity of risk can be assessed subjectively but in a systematic manner by AHP and some other MCDM methods. Risk mapping technique is a simple and easily understood technique for this purpose. Once these two attributes of risk, i.e. likelihood and severity, are well assessed, risk premium can be considered.In so doing, the utility theory would be working. The suitable risk premium can be settled in a negotiation with concessionaires.Finally, the most essential thing governments have to do is to set up clear objectives, either single or plural. Without doing it, risk analysis cannot be conducted sufficiently.Funders:There are two major categories as funders in BOT projects. One is lender and the other is investor. “Lenders tend to focus on the downside risks while investors tend to look at the upside opportunity” (Walker and Smith, 1995). Lenders are mainly concerned with the cash flow of a project. Cash flow of a project is analyzed and measured by the following terms, as examples:•return on investment (ROI);•return on equity (ROE);•net present value (NPV);•pay back period (PBP); and•internal rate of return (IRR).By constructing cash-flow models, lenders take a look at some of these terms of a project. One of the very important and difficult things in cash-flow modeling is how to predict an interest rate and an inflation rate, or, in other words, a discount rate, which must be involved in the modeling, over the concession period of a project as long as 20-30 years. A small change in these rates results in a very big change in the project cash flow.The cash-flow analysis is often conducted by means of Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. Since lenders, such as bankers, cannot assume so much risk, their concern is directed to the down side, i.e. the worse cases in sensitivity analysis. In many cases of BOT projects, the loans are made on the limited or non-recourse basis, lenders need to be very aware of risk. Therefore, any worst-case scenario is necessary and needs to be examined by sensitivity analysis, and other analyses as well. The impacts of change in the interest rate and the inflation rate should be tested by sensitivity testing, too.However, cash-flow analysis is difficult to incorporate qualitative risk factors. These factors include political risks, risks in management by a concessionaire and so on. Since these factors are very important in BOT projects, they should be analyzed separately from cash-flow analysis.Things are more complicated and serious in BOT transport projects than in BOT power projects, because lenders are more exposed to the demand risk in the former than in the latter. Generally, there are many factors influential to the demand, and they interact in complex manners. In this case, risk factors and their relationship should be fully identified. Because income of a project solely depends on the demand, the lender should recognize the impact of various risk factors to the demand by sensitivity analysis.Sensitivity analysis is applicable when functions between input variables and output variables are explicit. On the other hand, neural network approach has great potential for sensitivity testing in BOT projects in case the functions are implicit. However, this approach requires a sufficient amount of recorded data.In many cases of BOT environments, a risk of currency exchange rate is one of the most concerns for project participants. This risk factor is inherent in BOT projects, particularly in developing countries. It must be fully understood through a thorough risk analysis process from identification to sensitivity testing. Lenders in general are supposed to be well-knowledged in financial techniques. Accordingly, techniques for financial risk hedging, such as exchange rate swap, can be employed as long as the risk is fully analyzed.On the other hand, for external investors, their equity investment to a BOT project normally forms one portion of their portfolio. Risk analysis for investors is directed to diversification of risk in their portfolio. Because BOT projects are highly risky by nature, much higher return is expected and required by investors.Source: Prasanta K. Dey, Stephen O. Ogunlana. Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects.Industrial Management & Data Systems, 2004(4): P334-346.译文:BOT项目风险管理BOT项目风险管理研究证明:风险管理框架包括风险识别、风险分类、风险分析、风险态度和风险应对(或风险分担)。
企业风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
企业风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文:Risk ManagementThis chapter reviews and discusses the basic issues and principles of risk management, including: risk acceptability (tolerability); risk reduction and the ALARP principle; cautionary and precautionary principles. And presents a case study showing the importance of these issues and principles in a practical management context. Before we take a closer look, let us briefly address some basic features of risk management.The purpose of risk management is to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect people, the environment, and assets from possible harmful consequences of the activities being undertaken, as well as to balance different concerns, in particular risks and costs. Risk management includes measures both to avoid the hazards and toreduce their potential harm. Traditionally, in industries such as nuclear, oil, and gas, risk management was based on a prescriptive regulating regime, in which detailed requirements were set with regard to the design and operation of the arrangements. This regime has gradually been replaced by a more goal-oriented regime, putting emphasis on what to achieve rather than on the means of achieving it.Risk management is an integral aspect of a goal-oriented regime. It is acknowledged that risk cannot be eliminated but must be managed. There is nowadays an enormous drive and enthusiasm in various industries and in society as a whole to implement risk management in organizations. There are high expectations that risk management is the proper framework through which to achieve high levels of performance.Risk management involves achieving an appropriate balance between realizing opportunities for gain and minimizing losses. It is an integral part of good management practice and an essential element of good corporate governance. It is an iterative process consisting of steps that, when undertaken in sequence, can lead to a continuous improvement in decision-making and facilitate a continuous improvement in performance.To support decision-making regarding design and operation, risk analyses are carried out. They include the identification of hazards and threats, cause analyses, consequence analyses, and risk descriptions. The results are then evaluated. The totality of the analyses and the evaluations are referred to as risk assessments. Risk assessment is followed by risk treatment, which is a process involving the development and implementation of measures to modify the risk, including measures designed to avoid, reduce (“optimize”), transfer, or retain the risk. Risk transfer means sharing with another party the benefit or loss associated with a risk. It is typically affected through insurance. Risk management covers all coordinated activities in the direction and control of an organization with regard to risk.In many enterprises, the risk management tasks are divided into three main categories: strategic risk, financial risk, and operational risk. Strategic risk includes aspects and factors that are important for the e nterprise’s long-term strategy and plans,for example mergers and acquisitions, technology, competition, political conditions, legislation and regulations, and labor market. Financial risk includes the enterprise’s financial situation, and includes: Market risk, associated with the costs of goods and services, foreign exchange rates and securities (shares, bonds, etc.). Credit risk, associated with a debtor’s failure to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. Liquidity risk, reflecting lack of access to cash; the difficulty of selling an asset in a timely manner. Operational risk is related to conditions affecting the normal operating situation: Accidental events, including failures and defects, quality deviations, natural disasters. Intended acts; sabotage, disgruntled employees, etc. Loss of competence, key personnel. Legal circumstances, associated for instance, with defective contracts and liability insurance.For an enterprise to become successful in its implementation of risk management, top management needs to be involved, and activities must be put into effect on many levels. Some important points to ensure success are: the establishment of a strategy for risk management, i.e., the principles of how the enterprise defines and implements risk management. Should one simply follow the regulatory requirements (minimal requirements), or should one be the “best in the class”? The establishment of a risk management process for the enterprise, i.e. formal processes and routines that the enterprise is to follow. The establishment of management structures, with roles and responsibilities, such that the risk analysis process becomes integrated into the organization. The implementation of analyses and support systems, such as risk analysis tools, recording systems for occurrences of various types of events, etc. The communication, training, and development of a risk management culture, so that the competence, understanding, and motivation level within the organization is enhanced. Given the above fundamentals of risk management, the next step is to develop principles and a methodology that can be used in practical decision-making. This is not, however, straightforward. There are a number of challenges and here we address some of these: establishing an informative risk picture for the various decision alternatives, using this risk picture in a decision-making context. Establishing an informative risk picture means identifying appropriate risk indices and assessments ofuncertainties. Using the risk picture in a decision making context means the definition and application of risk acceptance criteria, cost benefit analyses and the ALARP principle, which states that risk should be reduced to a level which is as low as is reasonably practicable.It is common to define and describe risks in terms of probabilities and expected values. This has, however, been challenged, since the probabilities and expected values can camouflage uncertainties; the assigned probabilities are conditional on a number of assumptions and suppositions, and they depend on the background knowledge. Uncertainties are often hidden in this background knowledge, and restricting attention to the assigned probabilities can camouflage factors that could produce surprising outcomes. By jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects are easily truncated, and potential surprises may be left unconsidered.Let us, as an example, consider the risks, seen through the eyes of a risk analyst in the 1970s, associated with future health problems for divers working on offshore petroleum projects. The analyst assigns a value to the probability that a diver would experience health problems (properly defined) during the coming 30 years due to the diving activities. Let us assume that a value of 1 % was assigned, a number based on the knowledge available at that time. There are no strong indications that the divers will experience health problems, but we know today that these probabilities led to poor predictions. Many divers have experienced severe health problems (Avon and Vine, 2007). By restricting risk to the probability assignments alone, important aspects of uncertainty and risk are hidden. There is a lack of understanding about the underlying phenomena, but the probability assignments alone are not able to fully describe this status.Several risk perspectives and definitions have been proposed in line with this realization. For example, Avon (2007a, 2008a) defines risk as the two-dimensional combination of events/consequences and associated uncertainties (will the events occur, what the consequences will be). A closely related perspective is suggested by Avon and Renan (2008a), who define risk associated with an activity as uncertaintyabout and severity of the consequences of the activity, where severity refers to intensity, size, extension, scope and other potential measures of magnitude with respect to something that humans value (lives, the environment, money, etc.). Losses and gains, expressed for example in monetary terms or as the number of fatalities, are ways of defining the severity of the consequences. See also Avon and Christensen (2005).In the case of large uncertainties, risk assessments can support decision-making, but other principles, measures, and instruments are also required, such as the cautionary/precautionary principles as well as robustness and resilience strategies. An informative decision basis is needed, but it should be far more nuanced than can be obtained by a probabilistic analysis alone. This has been stressed by many researchers, e.g. Apostolicism (1990) and Apostolicism and Lemon (2005): qualitative risk analysis (QRA) results are never the sole basis for decision-making. Safety- and security-related decision-making is risk-informed, not risk-based. This conclusion is not, however, justified merely by referring to the need for addressing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values. The main issue here is the fact that risks need to be balanced with other concerns.When various solutions and measures are to be compared and a decision is to be made, the analysis and assessments that have been conducted provide a basis for such a decision. In many cases, established design principles and standards provide clear guidance. Compliance with such principles and standards must be among the first reference points when assessing risks. It is common thinking that risk management processes, and especially ALARP processes, require formal guidelines or criteria (e.g., risk acceptance criteria and cost-effectiveness indices) to simplify the decision-making. Care must; however, be shown when using this type of formal decision-making criteria, as they easily result in a mechanization of the decision-making process. Such mechanization is unfortunate because: Decision-making criteria based on risk-related numbers alone (probabilities and expected values) do not capture all the aspects of risk, costs, and benefits, no method has a precision that justifies a mechanical decision based on whether the result is overor below a numerical criterion. It is a managerial responsibility to make decisions under uncertainty, and management should be aware of the relevant risks and uncertainties.Apostolicism and Lemon (2005) adopt a pragmatic approach to risk analysis and risk management, acknowledging the difficulties of determining the probabilities of an attack. Ideally, they would like to implement a risk-informed procedure, based on expected values. However, since such an approach would require the use of probabilities that have not b een “rigorously derived”, they see themselves forced to resort to a more pragmatic approach.This is one possible approach when facing problems of large uncertainties. The risk analyses simply do not provide a sufficiently solid basis for the decision-making process. We argue along the same lines. There is a need for a management review and judgment process. It is necessary to see beyond the computed risk picture in the form of the probabilities and expected values. Traditional quantitative risk analyses fail in this respect. We acknowledge the need for analyzing risk, but question the value added by performing traditional quantitative risk analyses in the case of large uncertainties. The arbitrariness in the numbers produced can be significant, due to the uncertainties in the estimates or as a result of the uncertainty assessments being strongly dependent on the analysts.It should be acknowledged that risk cannot be accurately expressed using probabilities and expected values. A quantitative risk analysis is in many cases better replaced by a more qualitative approach, as shown in the examples above; an approach which may be referred to as a semi-quantitative approach. Quantifying risk using risk indices such as the expected number of fatalities gives an impression that risk can be expressed in a very precise way. However, in most cases, the arbitrariness is large. In a semi-quantitative approach this is acknowledged by providing a more nuanced risk picture, which includes factors that can cause “surprises” r elative to the probabilities and the expected values. Quantification often requires strong simplifications and assumptions and, as a result, important factors could be ignored or given too little (or too much) weight. In a qualitative or semi-quantitative analysis, amore comprehensive risk picture can be established, taking into account underlying factors influencing risk. In contrast to the prevailing use of quantitative risk analyses, the precision level of the risk description is in line with the accuracy of the risk analysis tools. In addition, risk quantification is very resource demanding. One needs to ask whether the resources are used in the best way. We conclude that in many cases more is gained by opening up the way to a broader, more qualitative approach, which allows for considerations beyond the probabilities and expected values.The traditional quantitative risk assessments as seen for example in the nuclear and the oil & gas industries provide a rather narrow risk picture, through calculated probabilities and expected values, and we conclude that this approach should be used with care for problems with large uncertainties. Alternative approaches highlighting the qualitative aspects are more appropriate in such cases. A broad risk description is required. This is also the case in the normative ambiguity situations, as the risk characterizations provide a basis for the risk evaluation processes. The main concern is the value judgments, but they should be supported by solid scientific assessments, showing a broad risk picture. If one tries to demonstrate that it is rational to accept risk, on a scientific basis, too narrow an approach to risk has been adopted. Recognizing uncertainty as a main component of risk is essential to successfully implement risk management, for cases of large uncertainties and normative ambiguity.A risk description should cover computed probabilities and expected values, as well as: Sensitivities showing how the risk indices depend on the background knowledge (assumptions and suppositions); Uncertainty assessments; Description of the background knowledge, including models and data used.The uncertainty assessments should not be restricted to standard probabilistic analysis, as this analysis could hide important uncertainty factors. The search for quantitative, explicit approaches for expressing the uncertainties, even beyond the subjective probabilities, may seem to be a possible way forward. However, such an approach is not recommended. Trying to be precise and to accurately express what is extremely uncertain does not make sense. Instead we recommend a more openqualitative approach to reveal such uncertainties. Some might consider this to be less attractive from a methodological and scientific point of view. Perhaps it is, but it would be more suited for solving the problem at hand, which is about the analysis and management of risk and uncertainties.Source: Terje Aven. 2010. “Risk Management”. Risk in Technological Systems, Oct, p175-198.译文:风险管理本章回顾和讨论风险管理的基本问题和原则,包括:风险可接受性(耐受性)、风险削减和安全风险管理原则、警示和预防原则,并提出了一个研究案例,说明在实际管理环境中这些问题和原则的重要性。
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中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)原文:Project Risk AnalysisChapter 1 Introduction1.1 About this compendiumThis course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics:• R isk identification• Risk structuring• Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model• Risk follows upWe will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation.1.2 DefinitionsAleatory uncertaintyVariation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty.Epistemic uncertaintyLack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. DependencyThe relation between the sequences of the activities in a project.Observable quantityA quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. ParameterWe use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probabilitystatement about an observable quantity, X, is that a parameter is a construct where the value of the parameter is the limiting value where we are not able to saturate our understanding about the observable quantity X whatsoever new information we could get hold of. Parameter estimateThe numeric value we assess to a parameter.ProbabilityA measure of uncertainty of an event.RiskRisk is defined as the answer to the three questions [14]: i) what can go wrong? ii) How likely is it? And if it goes wrong, iii) what are the consequences? To describe the risk is a scenarioRisk acceptanceA decision to accept a risk.Risk acceptance criterionA reference by which risk is assessed to be acceptable or unacceptable.ScheduleA plan which specifies the start and finalization point of times for the activities in a project.Stochastic dependencyTwo or more stochastic variables are (stochastically) dependent if the expectation of one stochastic variable depends on the value of one or more of the other stochastic variables. Stochastic variableA stochastic variable, or random quantity, is a quantity for which we do not know the value it will take. However, we could state statistical properties of the variable or make probability statement about the value of the quantity.1.3 DEFINITIONSUncertaintyLack of knowledge about the performance of a system, and observable quantities in particular.Chapter 2Risk ManagementGenerally, risk management is defined (IEC 60300-3-9) as a “systematic application ofmanagement policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating and controlling risk”. It will comprise (IEC definitions in parentheses):• Risk assessment, i.e.–Risk analysis (“Systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the r isk to individuals or populations, property or the environment”)–Risk evaluation (“Process in which judgments are made on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of risk analysis and taking into account factors such as socio-economic and environmental aspects”)• Risk reduction/control (Decision making, implementation and risk monitoring).There exists no common definition of risk, but for instance IEC 60300-3-9 defines risk as a “combination of the frequency, or probability, of occurrence and the consequence of a specified hazardous events”. Most definitions comprise the elements of probabilities and consequences. However, some as Klinke and Renn suggest a very wide definition, stating: “Risk refers to the possibility that human actions or events lead to consequences that affect aspects of what humans value”. So the total risk comprises the possibility of number (“all”)unwanted/hazardous events. It is part of the risk analysis to delimit which hazards to include. Further, risk usually refers to threats in the future, involving a (high) degree of uncertainty. In the following we will present the basic elements of risk management as it is proposed to be an integral part of project management.2.1 Project objectives and criteriaIn classical risk analysis of industrial systems the use of so-called risk acceptance criteria has played a central role in the last two or tree decades. Basically use of risk acceptance criteria means that some severe consequences are defined, e.g. accident with fatalities. Then we try to set an upper limit for the probability of these consequences that could be accepted, i.e. we could not accept higher probabilities in any situations. Further these probabilities could only be accepted if risk reduction is not possible, or the cost of risk reduction is very high.In recent years it has been a discussion in the risk analysis society whether it is fruitful or not to use risk acceptance criteria according to the principles above. It is argued that very often risk acceptance criteria are set arbitrary, and these do not necessarily support the overall best solutions. Therefore, it could be more fruitful to use some kind of risk evaluation criteria, rather than strict acceptance criteria. In project risk management we could establish acceptance criteria related to two types of events:• Events with severe consequences related to health, environment and safety.• Events with severe consequences related to project costs, project quality, project duration, oreven termination of the project. In this course we will have main focus on the project costs and the duration of the project. Note that both project cost and project duration are stochastic variables and not events. Thus it is not possible to establish acceptance criteria to project cost or duration directly. Basically, there are three types of numeric values we could introducein relation to such stochastic variables describing the project:1. Target. The target expresses our ambitions in the project. The target shall be something we are striving at, and it should be possible to reach the target. It is possible to introduce (internal) bonuses, or other rewards in order to reach the targets in a project.2. Expectation. The expectations are the value the stochastic variables will achieve in the long run, or our expectation about the outcome. The expectation is less ambitious than the target. The expectation will in a realistic way account for hazards, and threats and conditions which often contribute to the fact that the targets are not met.3. Commitment. The commitments are values related to the stochastic variables which are regulated in agreements and contracts. For example it could be stated in the contract that a new bridge shall be completed within a given date. If we are not able to fulfill the commitments, this will usually result in economical consequences, for example penalties for defaults, or in the worst case canceling of the contract.2.2 Risk identificationA scenario is a description of a imagined sequence or chain of events, e.g. we have a water leakage, and we are not able to stop this leakage with ordinary tightening medium due to the possible environmental aspects which is not clarified at the moment. Further the green movement is also likely to enter the scene in this case. A hazard is typically related to energies, poisonous media etc, and if they are released this will result in an accident or a severe event. A threat is a wider term than hazard, and we include also aspects as “wrong” method applied, “lack of competence and experience”. The term threat is also very often used in connection with security problems, e.g. sabotage, terrorism, and vandalism.2.3 Structuring and modeling of riskIn Section 2.2 we have identified methods to identify events and threats. We now want to relate these events and threats to the explicit models we have for project costs and project duration.2.3.1 Model for project execution time/schedule modelingWhen analyzing the execution time for a project we will have a project plan and typicallya Gantt diagram as a starting point. The Gantt diagram is transformed into a so-called flow network where the connections between the activities are explicitly described. Such a flow network also comprises description of duration of the activities in terms of probability statements. The duration of each activity is stochasticVariables, which we denote Ti for activity in a flow network we might also have uncertain activities which will be carried out only under special conditions. These conditions could be described in terms of events, and we need to describe the probability of occurrence of such events. Thus, there is a set of quantities, i.e. time variables and events in the model. The objective is now to link the undesired events and threats discussed in Section 2.2 to these time variables and events. Time variables are described by a probability distribution function. Such a distribution function comprises parameters that characterize the time variable. Often a parametric probability distribution is described by the three quantities L (low), M (most likely) and H high. If an undesired event occur, it is likely that the values of L, M and H will be higher than in case this event does not occur. A way to include the result from the risk identification process is then to express the different values of L, M and H depending on whether the critical event occurs or not. If we in addition are able to assess the probability of occurrence of the critical event, the knowledge about this critical event has been completely included into the risk model. Based on such an explicit modeling of the critical event, we could also easily update the model in case of new information about the critical event is obtained, for example new information could be available at a later stage in the process and changes of the plan could still be possible in light of the new information.2.3.2 Cost modelingThe cost model is usually based on the cost breakdown structure, and the cost elements will again be functions of labor cost, overtime cost, purchase price, hour cost of renting equipment, material cost, amount of material etc. The probabilistic modeling of cost is usually easier than for modeling project execution time. The principle is just to add a lot of cost terms, where each cost term is the product of the unit price and the number of units. We introduce price and volume as stochastic variables to describe the unit price and the number of units. The price and volume variables should also be linked to the undesired events and threats we have identified in Section 2.2. Often it is necessary to link the cost model to the schedule model. For example in case of delays it might be necessary to put more effort into the project to catch up with the problems, and these efforts could be very costly. Also, if the project is delayed we may need to pay extra cost to sub-contractors that have to postpone their support into the project.2.3.3 Uncertainty in schedule and cost modelingAs indicated above we will establish probabilistic models to describe the duration and cost of a project. The result of such a probabilistic modeling is that we treat the duration and cost as stochastic variables. Since duration and costs are stochastic variables, this means that there is uncertainty regarding the values they will take in the real project we are evaluating. Sometimes we split this uncertainty into three different categories, i) Aleatory uncertainty (variability due to e.g. weather conditions, labor conflicts, breakdown of machines etc.), ii) para meter or epistemic uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about “true” parameter values, and iii) model uncertainty due to lack of detailed, or wrong modeling. Under such thinking, the aleatory uncertainty could not be reduced; it is believed to be the result of the variability in the world which we cannot control. Uncertainty in the parameters is, however, believed to be reducible by collecting more information. Also uncertainty in the models is believed to be reducible by more detailed modeling, and decomposition of the various elements that go into the model. It is appealing to have a mental model where the uncertainty could be split into one part which we might not reduce (variability), and one part which we might reduce by thorough analysis and more investigation (increased knowledge). If we are able to demonstrate that the part of the uncertainty related to lack of knowledge and understanding has been reduced to a sufficient degree, we could then claim high confidence in the analysis. In some situation the owner or the authorities put forward requirements. Which could be interpreted as confidence regarding the quality of the analysis? It is though not always clear what is meant by such a confidence level. As an example, let E(C) be the expected cost of ap roject. A confidence statement could now be formulated as “The probability that the actual project cost is within an interval E(C) ± 10% should at least be 70%”. It is, however, not straight forward to document such a confidence level in a real analysis. T he “Successive process (trinnvisprosessen)” [4] is an attempt to demonstrate how to reduce the “uncertainty” in the result to a certain level of confidence.We also mention that Even [12] has recently questioned such an approach where there exist model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, and emphasizes that we in the analysis should focus on the observable quantities which will become evident for us if the project is executed, e.g. the costs, and that uncertainty in these quantities represent the lack of knowledge about which values they will take in the future. This discussion is not pursuit any more in this presentation.2.4 Risk elements for follow up: Risk and opportunity registerAs risk elements and threats are identified in Section 2.2 these have to be controlled as far as possible. It is not sufficient to identify these conditions and model them in the schedule and cost models, we also have to mitigate the risk elements and threats. In order to ensure a systematic follow up of risk elements and threats it is recommended to establish a so-called threat log. The terms ‟Risk Register…and ‟Risk & Opportunity Register…(R&OR) is sometimes used rather than the term ‟threat log.… A R&OR is best managed by a database solution, for example an MS-Access Database. Each row in the database represents one risk element or threat. The fields in such a database could vary, but the following fields seems reasonable: • ID. An identifier is required in order to keep track of the threat in relation to the quantitative risk models, to follow up actions ET.• Description. A description of the threat is necessary in order to understand the content of the problem. It could be necessary to state the immediate consequences (e.g. occupational accident), but also consequences in terms of the main objectives of the project, e.g. time and costs.• Likelihood or probability. A judgment regarding how probable it is that the threat or the risk condition will be released in terms of e.g. undesired or critical events.• Impact. If possible, give a direct impact on cost and schedule if the event occurs, either by an expected impact, or by L, M and H values.• References to cost and schedule. In order to update the schedule and cost models it is convenient to give an explicit reference from the R&OR into the schedule and cost models. • Manageability. Here it is descried how the threat could be influenced, either by implementing measures to eliminate the threat prior to it reveals it self, or measures in orderto reduce the consequences in case of the threat will materialize.• Alert information. It is important to be aware of information that could indicate the development of the threat before it eventually will materialize. If such information is available we could implement relevant measures if necessary. For example it could be possible to take ground samples at a certain cost, but utilizing the information from such samples could enable us to choose appropriate methods for tunnel penetration.• Measures. List of measures that could be implemented to reduce the risk.• Deadline and responsible. Identification of who is responsible for implementing and follow up of the measure or threat, and any deadlines.• Status. Both with respect to the threat and any measure it is valuable to specify the development, i.e. did the treat reveal it self into undesired events with unwanted consequences, did the measure play any positive effect etc.2.5 Correction and controlAs the project develops the R&OR is the primary control tool for risk follow up. By following the status of the various threats, risk elements and measures we could monitor the risk in the project. This information should of course be linked to the time and cost plans. If a given threat does not reveal in terms of undesired events, the time and cost estimates could be lowered and this gain could be utilized in other part of the project, or in other projects. In the opposite situation it is necessary to increase the time and cost estimates, and we need to consider new measures, and maybe spend some of the reserves to catch up in case of an expected delay. During the life cycle of a project it will occur new threats and risk elements which we did not foresee in the initial risk identification process. Such threats must continuously be entered into the R&OR, and measures need to be considered.一、介绍(一)关于本纲要本课程纲要过程中研究的是“风险也是一种项目”。