超强大公司估值模型 收入预期EXCEL

数据直接从财务

数据提取表粘贴一般情景预

测

科

目编号利润表（单

位：百万

元）

会计年度截

止日：12/312008200920102011E2012E2013E2014E2015E

9营业收入1,522.621,566.852,185.542,7823,4044,4935,9307,383增长率 2.9%39.5%27.3%22.4%32.0%32.0%24.5%

#减：业务成

本995.00977.911,441.241,8642,3153,1004,0925,168

# 营业税

费营业税金

及附加56.8854.0370.8997119157208258毛利率34.7%37.6%34.1%33.0%32.0%31.0%31.0%30.0%

# 营业费

用29.1024.7121.3225.0430.6440.4453.3766.45

# 管理费

用46.9949.5261.0569.5585.11112.33148.25184.59

# 财务费

用8.35(5.92)(6.80)(10.80)(13.31)(18.00)(24.69)(33.30) 其

中：利息支

出16.400.520.000.000.000.000.000.00 利

息收入8.44 6.850.0011.1014.4822.3132.3440.50汇

兑损益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 其

他0.400.400.00

# 资产减

值损失0.74(0.76) 2.66

#加：公允价

值变动收益0.000.000.00

# 投资收

益 3.52 6.99 6.27 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

# 其

中：对联营

合营企业的

投资收益 3.52 6.27 5.10

#营业利润389.07474.35601.44742.86873.781,106.821,459.821,744.87

#加：营业外

收入 4.2318.8516.06 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00

#减：营业外

支出 2.9121.9618.16 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

# 其中：

非流动资产

处置净损失 1.9519.1817.650.000.000.000.000.00

#利润总额390.38471.25599.34744.86875.781,108.821,461.821,746.87 #减：所得税94.9998.58122.54156.42183.91232.85306.98366.84实际税率24.33%20.92%20.45%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0% #净利润295.39372.67476.80588.44691.87875.971,154.831,380.03

# 归属于

母公司所有

者的净利润

(元)294.59371.48476.41587.44690.87874.971,153.831,379.03

# 少数股

东损益0.80 1.180.39 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00销售净利率19.40%23.78%21.82%21.1%20.3%19.5%19.5%18.7%净利润增长率26.10%28.25%23.3%17.6%26.6%31.9%19.5%

#发行在外股

份数量(百万

股）1,004.251,004.251,004.251,305.521,305.521,305.521,305.521,305.52

#基本每股收

益（元）0.29300.37000.47400.4500.5290.6700.884 1.056

#稀释每股收

益（元）0.29300.37000.4740

EPS增长率26.28%28.11%-5.1%17.6%26.6%31.9%19.5%股利60.250.000.00117.49138.17174.99230.77275.81期初未分配

利润1,825.241,043.991,414.031,414.031,825.242,308.842,921.323,729.00提取盈余公

积37.5058.7469.0987.50115.38137.90期末未分配

利润1,043.991,414.031,825.241,825.242,308.842,921.323,729.004,694.32销售净利润

率％23.78%21.82%21.15%21.15%20.32%19.50%19.47%18.69%

历史数据区显性期预测