管理学教程Decision-making决策(管理英语)

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Nonprogrammed decision
Programmed decision ………….….... ……… Lowest level
Ⅱ. Types of Decisions
Individual Decisions and Group Decisions
Individual decisions made by managers can be described in two ways. First is the rational approach, which suggests how managers should try to make decisions. Second is the limited (bounded) rationality perspective, which describes how decisions actually have to be made under severe time and resource constraints.
1. Programmed and Non-programmed Decisions 2. Individual Decisions and Group Decisions
Ⅱ. Types of Decisions
Programmed and Non-programmed Decisions
A distinction can be made between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions which result from different types of problems and use different types of procedures.
Ⅱ. Types of Decisions
The manager as decision maker is a problem solver, charged with either selecting from available alternatives or inventing an alternative.
Problems that occur frequently and have fairly certain outcomes should be the concern of lower levels of management.
Middle managers in most organization concentrate mostly on programmed decisions.
Rational Approach
The rational approach to individual decisions stresses the need for systematic analysis of a problem followed by choice and implementation in a logical step by step sequence. The significance of rational approach: The rational approach was developed to guide individual decisions because many managers were observed to be unsystematic and arbitrary in their approach to organizational decisions. Note: The rational model is an “ideal” not fully achievable in the real world of uncertainty , complexity, and rapid change, the model does help managers think about decisions more clearly and rationally. Managers should use systematic procedures to make decisions whenever possible.
The nature of the problem, how frequently it arises, and the degree of uncertainty surrounding it should dictate the appropriate level of management for making the decision. Highest level ..……………..
Ⅱ. Types of Decisions
• Non-programmed decisions
Non-programmed decisions are used for unstructured, novel, and ill-defined situations of a nonrecurring nature. When a problem contains elements that management has not previously confronted or if a problem is complex or extremely important, it requires a different and perhaps, unique solution. Non-programmed decisions are used when a clear-cut decision criterion does not exist. Typically, few alternatives can be developed for a non-programmed decision, so a single solution is custom-tailored to the problem.
Non-programmed
complex
creative problem solving
novel
Note:
Most decisions are neither completely programmed or completely nonprogrammed; they are a combination of both. Problems that come up frequently and have a great deal of uncertainty surround them are often of a strategic nature and should be the concern of top management. Upper-level managers make most non-programmed decisions because they have to deal with unstructured problems.
Decision-making
Ⅰ. Definition for Decision
• A decision is defined as the selection of a course of action from among alternatives; it is the core of planning. A plan cannot be said to exist unless a decision has been made.
Ⅱ. Types of Decisions
• Programmed decision
A programmed decision is for structured and routine problems. Programmed decisions are repetitive and well defined, and procedures exist for resolving the problem. They are well structured because criteria of performance are normally clear, good information is available about current performance, alternatives are easily specified, and there is relative certainty that the chosen alternative will be successful.
Herbert Simon’s satisfying rule
Since managers cannot be completely rational in practice, they sometimes allow their desire to “play it safe” to interfere with the desire to reach the best solution under the circumstances. Herbert Simon called this the satisfying rule, that is, picking a course of action that is satisfactory or good enough under the circumstances.
Ⅰ. Definition for Decision
• The quality of manager’s decision is the yardstick of their effectiveness and of their value to the organization. i.e. the importance, number, and results of their decision
Ⅰ. Definition for Decision
• Every organization grows, prospers, or fails as a result of decisions by its managers.
• Case-1: Nokia’s wrong decision-making
Decision Programmed
Problem repetitive routine
Procedures rules standard operating procedures policies
Examples Business: processing payroll voucher College: processing admission applicants Business: introducing a new product College: Constructing new classroom facilities
Why can’t we achieve complete rationality?
• Decisions must operate for the future which involves uncertainties.
• It is difficult to recognize all the alternatives that might be followed to reach a goal. • Not all alternatives can be analyzed. • Because of the limitation of time, managers’ capacity, cannot evaluate every goal, problem and alternative.