国家风险评估及管理教材

Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important
３.Country risk analysis can be used:
to monitor countries where the MNC is currently doing business;
as a screening device to avoid conducting business in countries with excessive risk; and
7.1
Rank Country Score
23 France
6.7
26 Botswana 6.0
27 Taiwan
5.9
38 South Africa 4.8
42 South Korea 4.2
46 Brazil
4.0
51 Mexico
3.7
57 Argentina 3.5
57 China
3.5
79 Russia
Political Risk Services’ International Country Risk Guide （国际国 家风险指南）includes the following assessments in their financial risk
index. Loan defaults or loan restructurings Payment delays Cancellations of contracts by a host government Losses from exchange controls Expropriation of private investments
The host government may impose special requirements or taxes, restrict fund transfers, and subsidize local firms. MNCs can also be hurt by a lack of restrictions, such as failure to enforce copyright laws.
Bureaucracy can complicate businesses.
G. Corruption（腐败）
Corruption can increase the cost of conducting business or reduce revenue.
Corruption Perceptions Index
Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important
１.Definition of Political risk is the risk that the business environment in a host country
will change unexpectedly or is the potentially adverse impact of a country’s environment on an MNC’s cash flows(国家风险指东道 国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影 响。）
2.3
88 Indonesia 1.9
Corruption Index Ratings for Selected Countries
Maximum rating = 10. High ratings indicate low corruption.
Online Application
Find out more about Transparency International and the Corruption Perceptions Index by visiting http://www.transparency.org/documents/c pi/2001/cpi2001.html.
2. Some Adverse Impacts: a. A terrorist attack b. A major labor strike in an industry c. A political crisis due to a scandal within a country d. Concern about a country’s banking system that may cause a major outflow of funds e. The imposition of trade restrictions on imports
Examples of political risks
Expropriation risk（征用风险） – Assets have been expropriated after revolutions in Iran and Chile.
Disruptions in operations（经营中断风险） - changes in laws or regulations..much more common than expropriation and can happen even in peacetime.
The index, which is published by Transparency International, reflects the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist
among public officials and politicians. In 2001, 91 countries are ranked on a clean score of 10.
Rank Country Score
1 Finland
9.9
3 New Zealand 9.4
4 Singapore 9.2
7 Canada
8.9
13 U.K.
8.3
14 Hong Kong 7.9
16 Israel
7.6
16 U.S.A.
7.6
18 Chile
7.5
20 Germany 7.4
21 Japan
Loss of intellectual property rights（知识产权风险） - particularly problematic in developing and transitional economies such as China and the former states of the Soviet Union.
第十一讲 国家风险评估及管理
Chapter Objectives To identify the common factors used by
MNCs to measure a country’s political risk and financial risk; To explain the techniques used to measure country risk; and To explain how MNCs use the assessment of country risk when making financial decisions.
to revise its investment or financing decisBaidu Nhomakorabeaons in light of recent events.
the companies that assess country risk.
Political risk （政治风险）
is the risk that a sovereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operate
Financial Risk Factors
A. Current and Potential State of the Country’s Economy
A recession can severely reduce demand. Financial distress can also cause the
Political Risk Factors
E. War
Internal and external battles, or even the threat of war, can have devastating effects.
The 2003 War in Iraq
F. Bureaucracy(官僚）
Political Risk Factors
A. Attitude of consumers in the host country
Some consumers are very loyal to locally manufactured products.
B. Actions of host government
Political Risk Factors
C. Blockage of Fund Transfers
Funds that are blocked may not be optimally used. If fund transfers are blocked, subsidiaries will
Examples of financial risks
Currency risk Interest rate risk Inflation risk Unexpected changes in the current account balance Unexpected changes in the balance of trade
Political risks arise because of unexpected changes in the political environment within a host country or in the relationship of a host country to another country.
have to undertake projects that may not be optimal for the MNC.
D.Currency Inconvertibility
The MNC parent may need to exchange earnings for goods if the foreign currency cannot be changed into other currencies
Financial risk （财务风险）
refers more generally to unexpected events in a country’s financial, economic, or business life
Financial risk is determined by a host of financial and economic factors, some of which are related to local political risk.
government to restrict MNC operations.
B. Indicators of Economic Growth
A country’s economic growth is dependent on several financial factors - interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, etc.
Protectionism（贸易保护主义风险） - e.g., “buy American.” Protectionism can affect local consumption.
Blocked funds（资金转移风险） - funds that cannot be immediately remitted to the parent company.