自由现金流估值模型xls)(1).xls
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The Free Cash Flow Business Valuation Model Instructions: Change any of the forecasting variables shown in red below and observe the effect on the model's
outputs in the section below. To what variable is the business value conclusion most sensitive? To what variable
is it least sensitive?
The Discounted Free Cash Flow Model for a Complete Business
Pie In the Sky Company
Forecasting Variables:
2002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Revenue growth factor20%30%40%50%60%50%40%30%20%10% Expected gross profit margin50%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59% S, G, & A expense % of revenue50%40%30%29%28%27%26%25%24%23% Depr. & Amort. % of revenue10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10% Capital expenditure growth factor40%35%30%25%20%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%
Net working capital to sales ratio19%18%17%16%15%14%13%12%11%10%
Income tax rate40%40%
Assumed long-term sustainable growth rate5%per year after 20115%
Discount rate20%20%
2002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Valuation Model Outputs:
Gross profit margin50%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59% Net operating profit margin-10%1%12%10%10%11%12%13%14%16% Free cash flow ($ mil)($1.3)($1.4)($1.3)($1.4)($1.0)$0.7$2.8$5.2$7.3$8.8
Terminal value ($ mil)$61.8 PV of Company Operations ($ mil)$11.1
Market Value of Company Assets ($ mil)$11.6