劳动与社会保障外文翻译

毕业论文外文资料翻译

题目西部农村新型农村养老保险参保

意愿的影响因素研究

——以青海省乐都县八里桥村为例学院政治与公共管理学院

专业劳动与社会保障

班级社保0803 班

学生赵继平

学号220080706103

指导教师刘艳丽

二〇一二年三月二十五日

This section of articles selected from A Theory of the Consumption Function,P26-30.The writer is Friedman Milton.

The assumptions that the first two correlations —between the permanent and transitory components of income and of consumption—are zero seem very mild and highly plausible. Indeed, by themselves, they have little substantive content and can almost be as simply completing or translating the definitions of transitory and permanent components; the qualitative notion that the transitory component is intended to embody is of an accidental and transient addition to or subtraction from income, which is almost equivalent to saying an addition or subtraction that is not correlated with the rest of income. The merging of errors of measurement with transitory components contributes further to the plausibility that these correlations are zero.

For a group of individuals, it is plausible to suppose that the absolute size of the transitory component varies with the size of the permanent component: that a given random event produces the same percentage rather than the same absolute increase or decrease in the incomes of units with different permanent components. This may make more convenient an alternative definition of transitory com- ponent that is suggested below; it is not, however, inconsistent with zero correlation. Zero correlation implies only that the' average transitory component—the algebraic average in which positive and negative. components offset one another—is the same for all values of the permanent component. For example, suppose that the transitory component is equally likely to be plus or minus 10 percent of the permanent component. The average transitory component is then zero for all values of the permanent component, although the average absolute value, which disregards the sign of the components, is directly proportional to the permanent component.

The plausibility of taking our definition of transitory components to imply a zero correlation for a group of consumer units depends somewhat on the criteria determining membership in the group. The clearest example is a classification of-units by the size of their measured income. For each such group, the correlation between permanent and transitory components is necessarily negative, since with a common measured income the permanent component can be relatively high only if the transitory component is relatively low, and conversely.

The assumption that the third correlation in (3.3)—between the transitory components of income and consumption—is zero is a much stronger assumption. It is primarily this assumption that introduces important substantive content into the hypothesis and makes it susceptible of contradiction by a wide range of phenomena capable of being observed. The ultimate test of its acceptability is of course whether such phenomena are in fact observed, and most of what follows is devoted to this question. It is hardly worth proceeding to such more refined tests, however, unless the assumption can pass—or at least not fail miserably—the much cruder test of consistency with casual observation of one's self and one's neighbors, so some comments on the intuitive plausibility of the assumption are not out of order.

The common notion that savings, or at least certain components of savings, are a "residual" speaks strongly for the plausibility of the assumption. For this notion implies that consumption is determined by rather long-term considerations, so that