2017-经济学人-双语-Many rupee returns

Indian economics

印度经济

Many rupee returns

大量卢比返还

The impact of India’s radical monetary reform is becoming clear

印度激进货币改革的影响日渐清醒

MOST economists might hazard a guess that voiding the bulk of a country’s currency overnight would dent its immediate growth prospects. On November 8th India took this abstruse thought experiment into the real world, scrapping two banknotes which made up 86% of all rupees in circulation. Predictably, the economy appears indeed to have been hobbled by the sudden “demonetisation”. Evidence of the measure’s costs is mounting, while the benefits look ever more uncertain.

大多数经济学家可能都会大胆猜测，假如突然废除一个国家的大部分货币，将会损害其短期增长前景。去年11月8日印度将这一匪夷所思的思维实验付诸实践，废除了两种面额的纸币，共占卢比流通总量的86%。不出所料，该国经济似乎的确因为突如其来的“废钞令”而步履蹒跚。这一举措造 成损失的证据正逐渐增加，而好处看起来则更不确定。

At least the new year has brought a semblance of monetary normality. For seven weeks queues had snaked around banks, the main way for Indians to exchange their old notes for new ones or deposit them in their accounts. That is over, largely because the

window to exchange money closed on December 30th. The number of fresh notes that can be withdrawn from ATMs or bank counters is still curtailed, but the acute cash shortage is abating, at least in big cities.

至少新的一年来临时，货币使用貌似已恢复正常。此前连续七周，银行门 前都排起蜿蜒的长龙，这是印度人以旧币换新币或是将旧币存入自己账户 的主要途径。如今此景不再，主要是因为兑换旧币的窗口已在12月30日关闭。能从自动取款机或银行柜台提取的新币数量仍然有限，但至少在大城市，严重的现金荒已在缓解。

As data trickle through, so is evidence of the economic price paid for demonetisation. Consumers, companies and investors all wobbled in late 2016. Fast-moving consumer goods, usually a reliable growth sector, retrenched by 1-1.5% in November, according to Nielsen, a research group. Bigger-ticket items seem to have been hit harder. Year-on-year sales at Hero Motocorp, the biggest purveyor of two-wheelers, slid by more than a third in December.

随着数据慢慢积累，为废钞令付出经济代价的证据也不断增多。2016年 底，消费者、公司和投资者的信心都有所动摇。根据调研

集团尼尔森 (Nielsen)的数据，通常增长稳定的快速消费品行业去年11月缩减了 1%至 1.5%。价格更高的商品似乎遭受了更大的冲击。最大的摩托车供应商英雄 摩托公司（Hero Motocorp)的销售额去

年12月同比下跌超过三分之一。

A survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing plunged from relative optimism throughout 2016 to the expectation of mild contraction. Firms’ investment proposals fell from an average of

2.4trn rupees ($35bn) a quarter to just 1.25trn rupees in the one just ended, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a data provider. As a result, corporate-credit growth, already anaemic, has reached its lowest rate in at least 30 years (see chart).

对制造业采购经理的一项调查显示，他们的心态从2016年全年的

相对乐观 骤变为对温和紧缩的预期。根据数据提供商印度经济监测中心（Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy)的统计，公司投

资计划从每季度平均2.4万亿 卢比（350亿美元）下跌至刚结束这一季度的仅1.25万亿卢比。这导致本已 疲软的公司信货增长率跌

至至少30年来的最低点（见图表）。