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Discovery Year
Number of Gas Discoveries > 1 tcf (2P) Total: 971 fields with 2P reserves > 1 tcf
* Source IHS energy
Time from discovery to first production is highly variable
40 35 Number of Discopveries > 1Tcf 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1940 1944 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
South & Central America North America Africa Asia Pacific Europe & CIS Middle East
2594 2264
500 242 282
523
Global Distribution of 1P Reserves. Source *BP Statistical Review 2007
Source: USGS, 2000
Majority of yet to find in: • Middle East • North Russia
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Has Conventional Gas Been Effectively Explored For?
• There are twice as many oil fields as gas fields • This is not geologically rational • Gas has often been found when oil was the target • Gas has not been pursued with the same vigour throughout the world as oil: – Often there were no contractual rights to any gas found – Gas had no value in many parts of the world, due to lack of market
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Global Gas Estimates
Proven + Probable + Possible Conventional Reserves
3P Reserves • “Unproven reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests has at least a 10% probability of recovering more than proved + probable + possible reserve estimate” • Estimated at 12,660 tcf Yet to find • USGS World Energy Assessment 2000 – Conventional Gas yet to find = 5791 tcf (Edwards, 2001)
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Conventional and Unconventional Gas Plays
Geological Setting Cartoon
Unconventional Gas Coal Bed Methane Land Surface
Seabed Conventional Gas Structural Gas Accumulation Conventional Gas Stratigraphic Gas Accumulation Conventional Gas Gas Cap to Oil Accumulation Unconventional Gas Gas Hydrates
BP Statistical Review 2007 6,405.000
CEDIGAZ 2006 6,381.000
Oil and Gas Journal 2007 6,183.000
World Oil 2005 6,227.000
Alternative measure of proven gas reserves
Increased exploration in gas likely when justified by its value
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BG Group
Technology Driving Unconventional Gas
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Resource and Reserve Estimates (various sources)
Conventional Reserve Estimates • 1P: Proven 6,405 tcf BP, 2007 • 2P: Proven + Probable 9,000 tcf HS, 2007 • 3P: 2P + Possible 12,660 tcf USGS, 2000 Conventional Resource Estimates • Yet to Find: 5,200 tcf USGS, 2000 • Ultimate Conventional Resource > 15,000 tcf
Global Reserve Estimates
Proven Conventional Gas Reserves
Proved reserves at end 2005
Proven Reserves (1P) • “Reserves estimated with > 90% probability to be commercially recoverable from known reservoirs” • Russia, Iran and Qatar hold > 55% of proven gas reserves • Adopting SEC guidelines BP 2007* estimate 6,405 tcf • World’s proven gas reserves are often located far from consuming regions
BG Group
Are We Facing Peak Gas?
Geological Society Petroleum Evening Meeting – Peak Oil 15 April 2008 Malcolm Brown – Senior Vice President, Exploration
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Introduction
• Definition of Peak Gas? – “The permanent decline in gas production” • Peak Gas debate needs to consider: – Ultimate resource base – both conventional and unconventional – Current and future consumption rates – What are the controlling factors? – Technical, economic or political?
Good alignment of estimates from differing sources
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Global Gas Estimates
Proven and Probable Conventional Gas Reserves
Global 2P Discoveries • “Unproven reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to recover more than proved + probable reserve estimate (> 50% probability)” • Recoverable 2P: circa 9,000 tcf* • Trends – Number of discoveries increasing – Individual field sizes decreasing Top 5 Global Gas Discoveries – North Field, Qatar (1971): 900 tcf – South Pars, Iran (1992): 500 tcf – Urengoy, Russia (1966): 382 tcf – Yamburg, Russia (1969): 222 tcf – Bovanenkoy, Russia (1971): 150 tcf
Unconventional Gas Tight Sandstones Structural Trap
Deeply Buried Low Permeability Sandstone
Basin CentrБайду номын сангаас Gas Generation
Unconventional Gas Shale Gas Play
Rogner, 1997
Using 2006 global production levels +/- 100 tcf p.a. this suggests gas could last between 60 and several hundred years 5
BG Group
Conventional Gas Resources
USGS, 2000 WoodMac, 2006
Unconventional Reserve Estimates • Tight Gas, Coal Bed Methane, Shale Gas 16,000 tcf • Gas Hydrates > 100,000 tcf WoodMac, 2006 Unconventional Resource Estimates • Tight Gas, Coal Bed Methane, Shale Gas 35,000 tcf