开卷有益——巴菲特1994年股东大会：内在价值与自由现金流折现

巴菲特1994年股东大会：内在价值与自由现金流折现

任何资产的内在价值，本质上，是所有未来现金流入或流出以适当的利率进行折现的现值。

The economic value of any asset,essentially,is the present value,the appropriate interest rate,of all the future streams of cash going in or out of the business.

如果我们一点也不知道未来的现金流会是什么样子，我们现在也不会知道它的内在价值是多少。

If we don’t have the faintest idea what the future stream is going to look like,we don’t have the faintest idea what it’s worth.

所以，如果你认为你知道今天的股票应该是多少钱，但却不清楚未来20年的现金流会是怎么样，我想这就是他们所说的认知失调吧。

So,if you think you know what the price of a stock should be today,but you don’t think you have any idea what the stream of cash will be over the next20years,you’ve got cognitive dissonance,I guess,is what they call it.

我们正在寻找一种非常非常高的确定性——我们可以在一段时间内看到这些现金流，然后再将其贴现。

We are looking for things where we feel—fairly high degree of probability—that we can come within a range of looking at those numbers out over a period of time,and then we discount them back.

我们更关心的是这些现金流的确定性，而不是一个我们对未来现金流没有很大信心、却看起来绝对估值最便宜的公司。

We are more concerned with the certainty of those numbers than we are with getting the one that looks absolutely the cheapest,but based upon numbers that we don’t have any-we don’t have great confidence in.

这就是内在价值的本质。

And that’s basically what economic value is all about.