经典偏好理论的回

One more
You have 1000yuan now ,choose one from the following alternatives. A 50%,1000yuan(gain).50%,0yuan(gain) B 100%,500yuan(gain) You have 2000yuan now,choose one from the following alternatives. C 50%1000(lose).50%,0yuan(gain) D100%500(lose)

2.3. The evaluability hypothesis ： joint versus separate evaluations、 differences in the evaluation mode itself In this case 、 the same evaluation scale is used in both groups but the evaluation mode differs.（例子中，两个任 务只用了valuation task,但仍有反转） The theoretical explanation for the preference reversals in joint versus separate evaluation modes relies on the ease with which an attribute can be evaluated in isolation. In SE, attributes that are difficult to evaluate in isolation will have less impact, and, in JE, attributes that are difficult to evaluate in isolation will have a greater impact. A preference reversal will occur if there is a large shift in the relative impact of the easy and difficult to evaluate attributes between SE and JE modes.
经典偏好理论的回顾



无关替代品独立性（independence of relevant alternative） 本质：决策者对于所有的选择有着完全的有序的偏好。 推广：如果在一个二选一的选项中，X优于Y，那么把选择集 合由两个扩大到N个，X仍然优于Y。一个不被看好的选择不 会因为选择范围的扩大而变成被看好的选择。 次序性：一个选项被选中的概率P不会因为选择范围的扩大 而增加，至多保持不变。 居中不变性：如果在一个二元选择域x和Y中加入一个新的选 择z, x y z的价值为x>y>z或x<y<z,那么z的引入使y比X丧失 更大的“市场份额”。 期望效用理论中的有关决策人偏好的六个公理、期望效用最 大化

假设和预测

定义①模糊性→选项拥有几个模糊特征 ②损失厌恶 →参照点→赋值中的两个部分
实验设计
实验设计类型：3x2混合设计 自变量：有几个模糊特征（1/2/3）、是否有参照点的变化（有 /无） 因变量：是否明显发生标准逆转和反逆转现象 被试：Lancaster大学的学生共104人，52人接受selling处理， 52人接受gifting处理，随机分组，会得到4美元的被试费， 另外可能赢得从游戏中赢得的费用。 时间：40min 指导语：written and verbal form

Hypothesis



2.1. The compatibility hypothesis: the weight 、 the response mode、 scale compatibility strategy compatibility Mechanisms： anchoring and adjustment、 imprecision of preferences 2.2. The prominence hypothesis : choice and matching 、the two response modes evoke different decisional strategies. a more qualitative reasoning strategy （select the option that is dominant on the most important dimension ） a more quantitative rea- soning strategy.
挑战
关联效度 主要有权衡反差（背景关联、局部关联） 极端逆转（妥协、单极化） · 禀赋效应 · 现状偏见 · 损失厌恶 · 偏好逆转

The principle and the realities Nhomakorabea

the principle of invariance : decision makers should have measurable and stable preferences such as description invariance, procedural invariance When either the format of presentation or the elicitation method is varied, decision makers often display a reversal in preference Specifically, preferences appear to be constructed at the time of judgment, are sensitive to the mode of elicitation, and are susceptible to framing effects。
typical preference reversal


In a typical preference reversal experiment, subjects indicate their preference for gambles using two different methods: (1) a direct “choice task” in which the subject indicates the preferred gamble from a pair of gambles directly indicating preference and (2) a “pricing task” in which the subject assigns values to the two gambles and the assigned values indicate preference. P-bet 选项 ＄-bet选项



ratio- nales—beliefs „„value seeking,” which implies that the decision maker should choose the option with the highest monetary value, even if it would not be the option that delivers the highest consumption utility. a different value-seeking rationale, fungibility Money （maximally fungible）flowers （lack the substantial virtue of fungibility） One does not ordinarily think of fungibility in these circumstances, even though in other contexts fungibility would be a sensible basis for choosing among options.
实验过程
Choose Value（selling and gift） Paid task

数据
结果


a two-sided binomial test. Hypothesis 1 is rejected. The (limited) support for hypothesis 2 is tentative, Hypotheses 3 and 4 are therefore rejected. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.
文献

Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion
假设是如何提出的？
经典的偏好逆转的外部效度不高。（模糊性、 损失厌恶理论的解释） 经典偏好实验中的缺陷（两个环节使用相同 的题目、在赋值环节中只使用selling这一个 定义）
讨论、反思
实验控制不是特别严谨。 E小组缺乏逆转也可能是因为认知上的困难。 一组中的两选项的期望效用不同。

新颖点
针对每个被试来说，两个任务使用不同实验 材料，但针对整个实验来说，是相同的实验 材料。 在value环节中加入selling treatment. 模糊了选项的特征，引入参照点是否变化， 提高了外部效度。
Preference reversal
a typical example
one example
Question one:choose one from A and B A 20% , 4000yuan B 25% , 3000yuan Question two: There is a gamble of two stages. Stage one: 75%,game over and no prize;25%,go on the game. Stage two: choose one from A and B A 80%,4000yuan; B 100%3000yuan