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Consumer spending in Asia：Shopaholics wanted

Consumer spending in Asia亚洲消费状况

Shopaholics wanted 购物狂时代该来了？

Jun 25th 2009 | HONG KONG

From The Economist print edition

Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth?

亚洲人能够代替美国人做全球经济的发动机吗？

ASIA'S emerging economies are bouncing back much more strongly than any others. While America's industrial production continued to slide in May, output in emerging Asia has regained its pre-crisis level (see chart 1). This is largely due to China; but although production in the region's smaller economies is still well down on a year ago, it is rebounding in those countries too. Taiwan's industrial output rose by an annualised 80% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. JPMorgan estimates that emerging Asia's GDP has grown by an annualised 7% in the second quarter.

时下亚洲新兴经济体们的恢复势头比其他任何国家都要迅猛。在美国工业生产继续下滑的5月，亚洲新兴国家的产出已经回到了它们危机前的水平(见表一)。这很大程度上要归功于中国，此外尽管该地区较小经济体的生产比去年仍有所下降，但最近这些国家也在渐渐恢

复。台湾截至5月的工业产出年度化增长较前三个月上升了80%。摩根大通预计二季度亚洲新兴经济体年度化增长率将达到7%。

Asia's ability to decouple from America reflects the fact that the region's downturn was caused only partly by the slump in American activity. In most Asian economies falling domestic demand was more important than the drop in net exports in explaining the collapse in GDP growth. The surge in food and energy prices in the first half of 2008 squeezed profits and spending power. Tighter monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation then further choked domestic demand.

亚洲与美国脱钩的能力说明该地区经济下滑只是部分由于美国经济活动的影响。大多数亚洲经济体内需下降要比净出口下降对经济影响更大，这就解释了GDP增长率暴跌的原因。2008年上半年食品和能源价格的暴涨让利润和消费能力双双缩减。从紧的货币政策旨在遏制通胀却进一步使得内需受到抑制。

The recent recovery in industrial production reflects the end of destocking by manufacturers as well as the large fiscal stimulus by most governments.But the boost from both of these factors will fade. Meanwhile, export markets in developed economies are likely to remain weak. So the recovery in Asian economies will stumble unless domestic spending, notably consumption, perks up.

近期工业生产的恢复显示制造商产品积压的状况正在结束，同时多国政府大规模经济刺激计划也已起效。但是这些原因造成的增长终

会消失，同时面向发达经济体的出口市场看上去依旧疲软。因此除非让内需，尤其是让消费振作起来，否则亚洲经济体的回复之路依旧前途坎坷。

Consumers' appetite to spend varies hugely across the region. In China, India and Indonesia spending has increased by annual rates of more than 5% during the global downturn. China's retail sales have soared by 15% over the past year. This overstates the true growth rate because it includes government purchases, but official household surveys suggest that real spending is growing at a still-impressive rate of 9%. In the year to May, sales of household electronics were up by 12%, clothing by 22% and cars by a stunning 47%.

消费者消费的胃口在这一地区有着巨大的差异性。中国、印度和印尼在全球经济下滑期间消费额年度化增长率超过了5%。中国的零售销售额去年暴增了15%,但这个数字是被夸大的,因为它包括了政府采购的花销,但是官方的家庭调查显示真实的消费增长率依然达到了令人印象深刻的9%。今年截至五月，家用电器销售增长12%，服装销售增长22%而汽车销售增长则达到了惊人的47%。

Elsewhere in the region, spending has stumbled, squeezed by higher unemployment and lower wages. In Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea real consumer spending was 4-5% lower in the first quarter than a year earlier, a much bigger drop than in America. But Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC, sees tentative signs that spending is picking up.