决策理论与方法

决策理论与方法（两个应用例子）

1决策分析的概念和分类

概念：为了达到目的在几个方案中选择出最佳方案。

分类：确定性策略：在外界条件完全确定的情况做决策

风险决策：在外界条件不知，未来外界条件可知的情况下做决策

不确定决策：在未来条件也不可知的条件下做决策

2决策分析的定性方法和定量方法

定性：德尔菲法，头脑风暴法，名义群体法

定量：直观判断法，线性规划方法（任务确定后如何以最低成本完成，如何在现有资源下产生最大收益）

3货币的时间价值

是指货币经历一段时间的投资和再投资所增加的价值

4盈亏决策分析

各自不确定因素（投资、成本、价格等）的变化会影响收益，当因素变化达到临界时，会影响方案取舍，决策分析就是找出这个平衡点。

5决策树（举个例子）

每个决策都会引出多个不同事件和结构，把这种决策或事件分支画成图形。

Decision theory and method

1 Concept and classification of decision analysis

Concept: Choose the best solution among several options in order to achieve the goal. Classification: Deterministic strategy: making decisions when the external conditions are fully determined

Risk decision-making: making decisions without knowing the external conditions and knowing the future external conditions

Uncertain decision making: making decisions in conditions where future conditions are not known

2 Qualitative methods and quantitative methods for decision analysis

Qualitative: Delphi method, brainstorming method, nominal group method

Quantitative: intuitive judgment, linear programming method (how to achieve the lowest cost after the task is determined, how to generate the maximum benefit under the existing resources)

3 time value of money

Refers to the added value of the currency's investment and reinvestment over a period of time.

4 profit and loss decision analysis

Changes in their respective uncertainties (investment, cost, price, etc.) will affect the return. When the factor changes to a critical point, it will affect the choice of the plan. Decision analysis is to find this balance point.

5 decision tree

Each decision leads to a number of different events and structures, and the decision or event branch is graphed.