日元国际化失败的原因

日元国际化失败的原因
We all know that:
上世纪80年代开始，日本制定了两个核心经济目标：一是保持长期持续稳定增长；二是推动日元亚洲化、国际化。

近3O年过去了，这两个核心目标都没有实现。

无疑，《广场协议》的签署和实施，是当时日本经济一个最重要的外生变量。

一．广场协议造成汇率的经常性波动
一种货币国际化，必须要渐次实现经常项下交易支付结算货币、资本项下交易货币、储备货币三种职能。

第一、第二种职能的推进，客观上需要稳定的汇率价格。

自1985年《广场协议》签订以后的10年间，日元币值平均每年上升5%以上.汇率过早的完全自由浮动和汇率剧烈震荡，限制了日元在结算和交易环节的使用，阻碍了日元在国际贸易和资本项下的交易计价、结算货币功能的实现。

特别是日本经济增长特别依赖于美国市场，这使得日本国内金融政策和金融市场难以独立，不能实现可控制的日元汇率波动。

二．缺乏有效的指导思想和正确的决策
世纪80年代中期在伴随着广场协议的签订，日元急剧升值，这时日本政府才重新认真考虑日元国际化的问题。

到上个世纪90年代初期，由于欧元概念的提出，日本政府在1996年10月提出“金融大爆炸”理论，日元的国际化由于思路不清晰，从无法保证日元国际化有计划、有步骤地向前迈进。

广场协议之后，日元大幅度地升值，对日本以出口为主导的产业产生相当大的影响。

为了要达到经济成长的目的，日本政府便以调降利率等宽松的货币政策来维持国内经济的景气，。

从1986年起，日本的基准利率大幅下降，这使得国内剩余资金大量投入股市及房地产等非生产工具上，从而形成了1990年代著名的日本泡沫经济。

三．金融市场建设不完善
国际货币要求交易充分便利、资金充分流动以及资产价值能够合理预测，这一切关键在于有一个发达的金融市场。

由于票据、外汇、债券等市场在日本的发展比较落后，这就使得日元的筹措和运用非常不方便。

此外，国内传统金融制度为了避免日元国际化冲击，日本使用了内外分断的金融改革战略。

日元的陡升，将日本出口业和金融市场推到了风口浪尖。

热钱纷纷涌入日本，而国债市场缺乏，金融结算体系的落后，日本无力对突变的环境采取灵活的应对措施。

日本政府为实现日元国际化开放了国内金融市场，但其金融市场功能却不够发达，尤其是广场协议签订以后，由于日本国内金融结构的调整和金融市场的健全性远不能适应日元的急剧升值，日本经济进入了一个大幅度波动时期。

从市场的开放度和国际化标准而言，与欧美国家相比，日本金融体系的健全性和开放度无法适应国际货币的要求。

四．现实条件不支持
第一，日元在资本项下的输出机制始终没有建立起来。

再加上日本长期是贸易顺差，在贸易
项下输出日元更难。

这导致日元在国际实体经济中的使用量非常有限，海外日元大部分是套利交易的投机性资金，国际化无从谈起。

第二，上世纪9O年代以后，日本银行体系陷于崩溃状态，使得日本银行业在海外没有形成日元的结算、清算体系，也没有形成日元海外派生机制。

即便在日元地位和作用有所“进展”的东亚地区，其“国际化”的水平和程度也非常低，该地区依然是“美元区”，日元只不过是在美元的国际货币机能中承担了一部分储备货币的职能。

1.
Since the 80's of last century, Japan has developed two core economic goals: one is to maintain long-term sustained and growth; two is to promote the internationalization of Japanese yen, asia.
30 years have passed, the two core goals are not achieved. No doubt,the signed and carried out of" Plaza Agreement" was one of the most important exogenous variable of Japanese economy . The reasons are as follow:
First, recurrent fluctuations of exchange rate caused by Plaza Agreement
To achieve currency internationalization, must gradually achieve three functions :regular settlement currency under transaction payment, trading currency under the capital items and reserve currency . the advance of the first and second kinds of functions , requires a stable exchange rate objectively. Since 1985, the 10 years after the" Plaza Agreement" was signed , an average annual increase of more than 5% .Premature and completely free floating exchange rates and it`s severe concussion have limited the use of yen in settlement and trading links , it hindered the realization of transaction price, settlement currency function of yen under international trade and capital . Especially the Japanese economic growth highly depends on American market, it is difficult for Japanese domestic financial policy and financial markets to independent, so Japanese can not control the yen's exchange rate fluctuation.
Second ,the lack of effective guidance and correct decision
In the mid 80 of 19 century,after the signed of the Plaza Agreement, yen appreciates quickly, the Japanese government begin to seriously consider the issue of yen internationalization. Until the early 90's of last century, as the concept of Euro been put forward, the government of Japan put forward " Big Bang Theory" in October 1996 , because the internationalization of the yen because is not clear, cannot guarantee the internationalization of Japanese yen planned, step by step to move forward. After the Plaza Accord, yen appreciation greatly,it exert considerable influence in export-oriented industries . In order to achieve economic growth, the Japanese government has cut interest rates and monetary policy to maintain the boom of domestic economic .Since 1986, Japan 's benchmark interest rate dropped considerably, this makes domestic surplus funds input the stock market , real estate and other production tools, thereby forming famous Japanese bubble economy in 1990.
Third,Financial market is not perfect
The international monetary demand trade fully convenient , sufficient liquidity of fund and asset values can be predicted reasonable, it is critical to have a well developed financial markets. Because the bills, foreign exchange, bond market development is relatively slow in Japan , which makes the yen finance and utilization is very inconvenient. In addition, the traditional financial
system in order to avoid the impact of internationalization of Japanese yen ,Japanese used breaking financial reform strategy. A steep rise in the yen, the Japanese export industry and financial markets are dangerous. The influx of hot money ,the lack of Treasury market , the lag of financial settlement system , Japan's inability to adopt a flexible response to the mutant environment.
Fourth, the actual conditions is not enough
First,, the output mechanism of yen under the capital account has not been established. second ,in 9O's, Japan's banking system in the state of collapsed, the Japanese banks did not form the yen clearing and settlement system overseas , nor the formation of yen overseas derived mechanism. Yen`s "internationalization" is also very low in East Asia, the yen only assume a part of function of the reserve currency in international currency function of U.S. dollars。