巴菲特所经历的牛市和熊市(The bull and bear markets Buffett experienced)

巴菲特所经历的牛市和熊市（The bull and bear markets Buffett
experienced）
Financial school, Warren Buffett four lessons
We began to talk to Buffett now, we all know that Buffett is a God, why do you say so, because Buffett created three myth, a myth is the investment, from 1965 to 2000, Buffett investment income of more than 3650 times, that is to say of us here just give Buffett ten thousand dollars, forty years, Buffett back to about thirty-six million; second is a treasure, Buffett from 1956 from $100 started, to now accumulated a fortune of about fifty billion yuan, nearly four hundred billion yuan, is next to Bill Gates's millionaire; third, Buffett announced the personal assets of 85% or $about 40000000000 donated to charity. Even if Buffett is such an odd man, but his spirit is worth us studying.
Buffett from 1956 to now, has done more than 50 years of stock market, life has experienced countless bull and bear market. Some people say that life experience a big bull market is lucky, but Buffett had experienced four big bull market, Buffett in the four bull market, he is how to deal with it, to ensure their long-term stable performance. Here I will give you an analysis.
From 1956 to 1966, the ten years, Buffett earnings are 11 times, while the U.S. market in 10 years, or 1.26%, that is, Buffett investment income far exceeds the market. At this time, Buffett ushered in his own life for the first time earnings. From 1967 to 1980, the U.S. stock market rose sharply, up 40%, breaking through the one thousand mark, trading volume is also a
substantial rise, the daily average trading volume soared six times ten years ago. At that time the stock market is also very crazy, crazy to what point, yields are high, such as IBM earnings of up to 39 times, AVON up to 96 times.
At this time Buffett is very painful, also very distressed, because the stock returns at that time is very high, looking for cheap stocks can not find, he wanted to buy, but can not buy cheap stocks. He thought at home, want to for half a year, to 1965, he said that the stock market is too high, although tomorrow stocks are in the shot, which to buy a stock will make money, but this way can be short-term, but long-term will definitely lose money, but this is not the way I am good at driving the way, when the market is in my good work, I can operate. So he and his partner said: I want to dissolve the company, you entrusted me to stock management, I want to exit the business, I cannot expect the current market environment, I am unable to not good way to business, I don't want ten years before a brilliant performance is damaged, so Buffett took the dissolution of the company, it can be said that his decision was very decisive, because from the beginning of the second half of the market from 1000 points down to 800 points, second years the market has continued to decline, it is more than half of the decline. So when Buffett in the stock market soared out to us what kind of enlightenment, two words "anti-corruption", because at that time everyone in different degrees of buying, but Buffett, not greedy, do not make the last piece of money. He did not reach the highest point at second, but had already considered it before. Why is Buffett when others are greedy, but he is not a fear of the heart, why when others are greedy, and Buffett anti-corruption, greed will lead to death, God
wants to destroy you, first of all is that you must be crazy, crazy everyone is greedy. Buffett love to tell such a story, said there is a master stocks, go to the gates of heaven, God said to him: I am sorry, now heaven to stock investment master rooms have been occupied, please go back to you. The man thought, "God, I have a request. Can I go to heaven and say a word to my colleagues?" God said, "yes.". So the man came to heaven, the stock investment master living in the yard, shouting a: Hell found bull stocks,
Then, all the investors came out and ran to the area. God said, "you're tall. Now you just go in."." The man shook his head and said, "they haven't come back to hell for so long. Maybe hell has big stock, and so do I."." Please note, why so many people would go, because of greed, if you were found in the bull market which many stocks have reached a high point, you still go to the last time a piece of money the big bull market, to the anti-corruption and then rebound.
Buffett met second times in the bull market, the bull market is a continuation of the first bull market, in 1970 after the market fell rapidly, to 1971, in 1972 the market still is rising sharply, up to what extent? The market range are high, then there is the so-called beautiful shares, that is the rate of return of the stock up to 80 times, that is to invest in the stock to be over 80 years to return, Buffett in 1966 after the dissolution of the company, his hands holding only a company's stock, he was the company's first generation shareholders, all of Buffett's assets into the company, he had all the cash, not what stocks basically, when Buffett hand there are 16% stocks, 84% of all cash and bonds to the end, can not find the stock,
Buffett like a lecherous young man came to a deserted deserted island, want to buy stocks is to buy, Buffett still want to buy the stock, he has endured the opportunity to wait for results to 1973, when all the beautiful stock began to greatly decline, the stock from one thousand Fell more than 800 points. In 1974, two years in the market fell 40% from the highest to one thousand, fell to 580 points, or up to 40%, all the Wall Street no one willing to buy stocks at this time, most of the people in your shares, this time from 1966 to withdraw from the stock market Buffett, 1970 1971 have nothing to do, no matter stem, 1972 do not matter, for three consecutive years, what things did not do Buffett back, this time a lot of stock returns on Wall Street, only a single digit or ten digit. Buffett said, he is like the lewd young man came to the daughter of the country, a good opportunity to buy stocks, buy a large number of Buffett, then the market rose rapidly, the market rose 60%, Buffett earned 80%, why Buffett earned more than the market? The second bull market to Buffett what inspiration, because he believes the market will certainly have a major drop in, fell to the lowest when everyone not to fall when buying stocks, what should we do, is to buy, buy when very cheap, this time once the stock market rebound, will earn a lot, this is Buffett second big inspiration to us.
Then after ten years, Buffett foresaw the third big bull stock, the third bull market in 1987, from 1984 to 1986, the U.S. stock market fluctuation, why do you say, up 2.46 times, and 1984 in front of eight months, the market also rose 40%, when everyone knows the stock, but also buy the stock, not earn money is stupid. At this time, Buffett is very calm, he said: "now the big bull market even down 50% is not curious, this is normal.". Buffett
from 1984, two years before the bull market is established, began to throw the stock, to the 1987 bull market established, Buffett basically put all the shares and all away, a stay, in addition to three stocks, three stocks this is never sold, as we spread the stock market song like "do not sell dead", these three stocks are shares of the American Broadcasting Company, XX insurance company shares, and shares of Washington Post, in October 19, 1987 fell more than 500 points, the market overnight, or up to 22.6%, equivalent to our current stock market fell one thousand points a day, to Buffett, Buffett the loss of 342 million days, equivalent to RMB 2 billion 500 million. His staff saw Buffett sitting quietly in the office on that day and watched the data. It was very calm,
Just come out in the middle and tell his subordinates what to do, and then go back to the office to continue reading. It can be said that Buffett is not the only concern throughout the United States market crash of the people, so that we did not expect that in October just fell, at the end of the year, the market has rebounded rapidly this year, the market also rose 5%, Yijiubaji years, although there are one thousand stocks, the market also rose 5%, while Buffett made how much is it, 20%, is much higher than the market in the next 1982-1985 years, the U.S. stock market rose 48%, while Buffett's performance is 64%, far to overcome market, this is because his three awkwardness not once had. Buffett foresaw the third bull market give us what inspired him two words "reactionary", that is in the bull market which can not see some stocks rose fastest, on which to buy, can not say that the stock market crash, on the left, that is some of the stock to be motionless. Why does Buffett hold these stocks for a long time? Because he wants to hold him for a long
time, so he should hold the stock of good company with good competition and good competition for a long time. The secret of investing, Buffett says, comes down to the phrase that a company that has a strong competitive edge and a long-term competitive advantage is long held. In addition, Buffett said, "I like to hold a stock when it is forever. Why?" Because Buffett himself discovered that I earned more money with my ass than I earned with my head, and someone laughed at that time. But you see, in the past Chinese stock market in five or six years, from the beginning of 2000 is a big bear market, now in front of two years is also a big bear market, we must buy the stock to sell that stock, every day is out to buy to buy, if you buy Moutai, sit in these big bull stock. And still, to earn more than you have brains, at this time is not to earn more money than the head butt to earn more, this is Buffett revealed to us in the bull market third times, is reactionary.
Next, Buffett met fourth times the big bull market, is closest to us a big bull market, in 1999, from 1994 to 1998, the U.S. stock market rose 2.5 times, this wave of the bull market, the main driving force of Internet stocks, technology stocks, the Internet stocks yields very high up, a rose many times. When the bull market peaked, that in 1999 the market rose 2.1%, while Buffett and his return is how much, only 0.5%, this is the worst investment performance in Buffett's history once, why, because Buffett and his stock is Coca-Cola shares these traditional industries, the Internet technology stocks, Buffett shares a did not buy at this time, his shareholders meeting have accused him, why don't you buy technology stocks, many newspapers are criticizing him, said Buffett is outdated, ineffective. Buffett heard the criticism and doubt, motionless, results to
the United States in 2000 the stock market began to fall, the stock market continued to fall in 2001, 2003 for three consecutive years, the stock market continued to decline, down more than half of the three years, Buffett earned 10%, that is to say he 60% advantage to high in the market, the original Internet stocks, technology stocks bubble Buffett, the largest holding stock, due to stable performance, price to be recognized by the market, the price but has been improved. Buffett later explained that the bull market in stocks, technology stocks inside the network, why he one did not buy it, he said his investment strategy is the long-term business advantage, hold the super star stock, to long-term money, and can hold long with little competition for those companies, Internet stocks, technology stocks can change the fate of human beings and society, but I'm not sure network company, company of science and technology the future competitive advantage? Let's all think about it. Ten years ago, can you imagine that computers are now VIP? Ten years ago, can you imagine that the Internet can be developed so well? So Buffett management company, a technology stocks have not bought,
However, he himself bought 100 shares of Microsoft Corp stock. Bill Gates is the first richest man, Buffett is second richest man, two people, a lot of old age, but two people are good friends. One day Bill Gates asked Buffett, "my company is doing so well. Why don't you buy any of my stocks?" Buffett said, "I would like to ask you, you can determine in ten years, the software will be like, you can determine in another ten years, what kind of network, you can determine in another ten years, what is the computer like?" Bill Gates said, I'm not sure, because the development of this industry is too fast, Buffett
said that if you can not predict, why can I believe you company, I do not dare to buy your shares in the company, but we are good friends, I can buy. Then, summing up the fourth big bull markets Buffett encountered, what inspiration does he give us, or is it reactionary?. Even in bull markets, you can't buy stocks that aren't sure, and you can't hold stocks without confidence for a long time. Only stocks you have more confidence can hold for a long time.
Then, let's come back to the conclusion that when Buffett meets fourth big stock markets, he gives us some inspiration for investment. The first point is that when the big bull market is too greedy, we all have to fight against corruption. The second point is in the bull market after the adjustment, when other investors to buy stocks, we want to buy, when third times and fourth times the big bull market, we think it is confident to hold stocks, long-term holders, a real. So Buffett and anti corruption, terrorism, and reactionary, why he can always do this three, is exactly the opposite of the way, there are three principles that can give you up: the first is that Buffett had a strong heartbeat, when each of us to buy the stock, see the stock rose, I will buy the stock, in the fall, I left, Buffett and anti-terrorism, anti corruption, his judgment is not the price, but the company's share price was too high for the value of the stock, is not to buy, for the low price of the stock, there is no one to buy, Buffett will buy, this is the counterattack, confident on their own, future stock can rise continuously several times, because the stock has not risen in place, this is reactionary, he does not do short-term second Buffett, we do short-term investments, and Pakistan Buffett is a long-term investment. Buffett's stock has only been thirty
years old. Do you know how much money you made? More than 200 times. Therefore, do long-term, do not buy and sell frequently. Third, do not follow blindly, want to think independently. Many of us want to see what others do. What shall we do?. Our love is successful, and we have a lot of parents to educate their children: you see people like, standing in the most of the people here is certainly not wrong, may sometimes stand in the most of the people here is correct, but also sometimes the most people here will be wrong, I'll give you an example, that is Buffett this is a story of lemmings story. Living in the village near the Arctic lemming is a generation of rodent animal, this lemming has a characteristic, a nest to thirteen, and these mice after three or four months and can give birth to a litter of mice, and the mice in the Arctic village too much, these lemmings from just below the tip of the cliff migration. From the north pole to the edge of the village, in front of the mouse will have to jump back inside the sea, in front of the mouse to follow the mouse sea jump, you will see the vast sea a large snow, a large group of mice to the sea jump. Buffett told us that in bull market, you blindly follow the person in front of you, just throw yourself into the sea.
Buffett in the investment, can make money, the first is the correct thinking, second independent thinking, and most of us love reference to others, so I hope you listened to my lecture today after the recall of Buffett in the bull market, terrorism and anti-corruption, because he was always able to think independently, can do back, so I hope you in the bull market inside the investment decision is right for you, is right, and do not blindly follow,
This is Buffett's last inspiration to us, that is, reflection, reflection and reflection. Thank you all.
Source: Nanjing Modern Express
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